Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/9/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/9/14 Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Pitchers Jose Fernandez FanDuel 10600 DraftKings 12800 DraftStreet 28222 Well this is going to be the big question of the day huh? How much is an acceptable price for Fernandez? Everything about his numbers (ridiculous) and the opponent (dreadful Padres) and the park (Petco) seems like we are headed for a crazy performance. So it really just comes down to what you are willing to pay for him. On FanDuel the price is completely acceptable and I'd recommend getting him into cash games and figuring out the rest of your lineup around him. On DraftStreet, the number is a crazy 28% of cap. The only way you are making that work is to pair him with a midrange starter and reliever. On DraftKings, it's kind of the same story. His final line should be nuts. The Padres are that bad on offense and he is that good. Now can you afford him? Masahiro Tanaka FanDuel 9500 DraftKings 11300 DraftStreet 22559 The only other cash game guy I would even really consider is Tanaka. My boy Masahiro has been nails this season, lighting it up to the tune of a 2.16 xFIP and mowing down opposing batters. If anything, he's run bad with the amount of home runs he's given up, an unsustainable 22% Hr/FB rate that will regress. That evens out a bit because the Babip is low (when balls go over the fence they aren't put in play) and his strand rate is probably going to decline some too. But that just regresses along with the home runs and you're left with a great pitcher against a mediocre Brew Crew. Francisco Liriano FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 8000 DraftStreet 17341 The Cardinals have been real, real bad against lefty pitching so far this season. They rank near the bottom of the league in OPS and wOBA against southpaws and Liriano, while not exactly a control freak, represents an upside play for very middle of the pack prices. A side effect of the crazy Fernandez price is that some other pitchers prices drop some. Liriano is one of those cases. His xFIP is 3.62, acceptable, with the big knock being the walks. Again, this isn't a cash game play by any means, but for K upside you can roll it out. Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9100 DraftKings 9600 DraftStreet 18243 Another guy who won't break the bank with an advantageous (though a bit risky) matchup. The Dodgers strike...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/8/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/8/14 Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Pitchers David Price FanDuel 9200 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 20220 Price has been ridiculous this year even if his ERA doesn't totally reflect just how dominant he's been. His xFIP is only 2.56 (trailing ERA by nearly two whole runs), he's K-ing more than 10 per 9 and the big news is the walk rate. He has only five walks in almost fifty innings. That's pretty insane. What's bit him in the long ball, a number out of line with his career averages. I think that regresses some. And you know what? The Orioles have been sneaky bad against lefties this season. They are near the bottom of the league in both wOBA and OPS against southpaws. I think people will be off price tonight because of the ERA, but don't be fooled, he's been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 18535 Though the Marlins are close to the top of the league in team OPS against righties this season, some of it is smoke and mirrors. They also have the highest team Babip and a HR/FB rate that probably isn't sustainable considering their home ballpark. This is all to say, that while not a bottom feeding squad like they were last year, they aren't nearly this good. and Ian Kennedy has some things going in his favor. He's striking out more than a batter an inning, continuing to limit the free passes and has an xFIP under 3. This is a real good spot for him and should be on all radars. Drew Smyly FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 17759 Looks like he's going to stick as a starter and today's matchup should do nothing to dissuade it. The Astros blow. They aren't as bad against lefties as they are against righties, but they are still bad. Still bottom feeding in wOBA and team OPS against lefties. Smyly has been strong in his last two starts, going six and seven innings respectively with fine enough K rates. I don't love, love him today even with the opponent but the price is reduced in most places and with the matchup I think you can consider him. Justin Masterson FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 17711 His last start looked like he might be turning things around and I don't think the Twins are as good as they've looked early this season. This is merely an...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings for 5/7/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings for 5/7/14 Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Pitchers Danny Salazar FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 7400 DraftStreet 17841 For my money, grabbing Salazar against the Twins is a coup. Nolasco has been God awful, the Twins had a sub-700 OPS against righties last year, and while Salazar has had some ERA problems, most of that has been bad luck. His xFIP has been 3.55 - and if he delivers on that against the Twins, he's in line for a beauty of a game. James Shields FanDuel 8600 DraftKings 10700 DraftStreet 21094 My guess? The rest of the industry is going to give you big game James as the #1 overall pitcher on the board today. And with good reason. He's been phenomenal this year, and is facing San Diego in Petco. Shields is a very safe play against the league's worst offense in the league's best pitcher's park. Rick Porcello FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 8100 DraftStreet 16665 Little kid Ricky has been excellent this year, and the numbers actually show he was this pitcher last year as well. With a 3.19 xFIP in 2013 and a 3.05 xFIP in 2014, Porcello appears to be turning into the pitcher scouts hoped he'd be. He's facing the Astros, who already suck, and he gets to face one of the MLB's worst in Peacock. Very solid play. Also considered: Zack Wheeler, Tim Lincecum. Catchers Alex Avila FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 5997 Avila never took off as the superstar people hoped he'd be because of his performance against left handed pitching. Against righties, though? He's got a solid 122 wRC+. And this counts good righties, and guys like Brad Peacock as well. Great play today. Jason Castro FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 4606 Speaking of platoon split guys. Yeesh. Castro has a startling 44 wRC+ against left handers, but a 122 wRC+ against righties. He'd leapfrog Avila based on price, but Porcello is a much better pitcher than Peacock. A big mish-mash after these two - I like D'Arnaud, Victor Martinez, Carlos Ruiz, and John Jaso (if he plays) similarly. First Basemen Mark Teixeira FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 9523 Tex has been on fire recently, and draws a terrific matchup in Hector Santiago. Santiago has two strikes against him here - first, he has been a mess this year with a worse than 2:1 K:BB ratio. Second, he is a left hander, and Teixeira has a career 143 wRC+ against lefties. Terrific spot. David...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/6/15
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/6/15 Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Pitchers Warning: Going cheap today at pitcher. I don't want to pay up for Clayton Kershaw in his first start back against the team with the highest OPS in the league against lefties. (Though it's very possible this is the lowest salary you see for him all year.) And a bunch of other guys are combinations of question marks or they have bad match ups (or both). Jesse Chavez FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 10900 DraftStreet 19058 Outside of one poor game against Houston (where I of course played him across the board) Chavez has been great. I'm not letting DFS bias get me here. His numbers are simply too good to ignore. He's striking out more than a a batter an inning with limited walks. And though his ERA is a little Babip fueled, his xFIP is only 2.70. Chavez faces the Mariners, one of the worst teams in the league against righty pitching. They strike out almost a quarter of the time and have a team OPS of .657. This is a great chance to pick up an upside pitcher at a lower cost simply because he isn't a household name yet. <strong>Note: Our system actually doesn't love him because projection systems haven't caught up to his new found skill.</strong> Tim Hudson FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 11000 DraftStreet 17929 Feels weird. I'm not a huge fan of picking guys that don't have strikeouts as part of their repertoire. This is for a couple of reasons. One: the margins seem incredibly thin when it comes to picking a pitcher that can't elevate his fantasy points through K's. Two: And it has to do with the first, but when a pitcher gets his outs other ways, it brings too much luck into the fold. I want my outcomes true. Hudson has been quality this year, but it's on the back of a minuscule Babip. I'm more looking at the opponent in the Pirates who are in the bottom third of the league against righties. I'm not over the moon about this pick, but pitching options are limited today. Drew Hutchison FanDuel 5800 DraftKings 7400 DraftStreet 14139 I've played him a few times at real discounts on DraftStreet, where snagging a third, upside pitcher at cheap prices is a fine strategy to employ. The price is climbing now because the returns have been so strong. He's striking a ton of guys out, keeping the walks relatively in check and his...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/5/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/5/14 Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Pitchers Max Scherzer FanDuel 10400 DraftKings 12700 DraftStreet 27186 Not quite at the Jose Fernandez level of "must start in every cash game almost no matter the opponent or price" territory, but close. And while that label is a bit of hyperbole to begin with, there is some truth to the matter that getting a stud pitcher against a weak offense means it's awfully tough to fade him. Scherzer against the Astros is one such occasion. Houston is near the bottom of the league in every meaningful category against righty pitchers. They strike out more than 25% of the time and have a team wRC+ of 85. Scherzer on the other hand has been dominant early season, extending from his terrific 2013 campaign. He's striking out nearly 12 batters per 9, limiting his walks and has an xFIP of 2.40. On one-pitcher sites like FanDuel it's pretty much Scherzer or bust in cash games. On DraftStreet his $27K tag (the highest I can ever remember seeing) is a bit too much to swallow. Yordano Ventura FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 17330 A little too wild for my cash game plays, but man does he have some upside today. Ventura has pitched really well this season (remember when he was like 5K?) and even with the price jump still has a quality expectation today. The Padres are awful, awful, awful on offense, ranking dead last in wRC+, OPS, wOBA and really anything else you can think of. They are a pathetically weak hitting bunch and Ventura pitching in San Diego only buoys his cause. He's been striking out more than a batter an inning and while not as good as his 1.50 ERA would suggest, I still think there is upside at these prices. Nathan Eovaldi FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 16501 I'm always a little wary when a pitcher's K numbers jump from his career averages, especially a guy like Eovaldi who's been around a little while. That being said, whatever he's doing this season is working. He's got a crazy 7:1 K:BB rate going, is pitching in a great park for limiting runs and faces a Mets team that has left Coors Field and is once again irrelevant. The Mets suck on offense and if weren't for the Padres would be dead last in every major offensive category. Eovaldi is coming at some advantageous prices today and I think you can take advantage. Jose...