Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/26/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/26/14 Our Free Baseball eBook is live! Check out the details, and get your copy now! Don't make another lineup before reading this book! It contains one mistake that basically everyone in the daily fantasy baseball industry is making! Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie. With the holiday and people heading out to their Memorial Day plans we will do a quick rundown today. Want you to get set, get those lineups and get to the barbecue. So a brief (for us) holiday set of picks coming. Enjoy the day everyone! Pitchers Prices are kind of all over the place so it's hard to make blanket statements on pitchers today. That being said, I'm not inclined to pay up for Cueto anywhere. We will have to make due with everyone else. Yordano Ventura FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 15852 He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and the prices just refuse to catch up. He strikes out more than a batter an inning and keeping his walk rate down. Ventura's xFIP is right in line with his sub-3 ERA and nothing about his performance suggests what he is doing is luck. He's been great. The Astros have the highest K% in the league against righties at 24.2%. Ventura is in play in all formats today and is coming at discount pretty much everywhere. Drew Hutchison FanDuel 6100 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 14468 Here's another guy who has been so solid this year, but very few people have taken notice. His xFIP is in the mid threes and his K/9 gives him upside at these prices even facing the Rays who don't K a ton. It's actually only the opponent who gives me pause here as I love what I've seen from Hutchison. Nathan Eovaldi FanDuel 6600 DraftKings 8300 DraftStreet 10947 His early season strikeout rate may have been a blip on the radar, but I'm still willing to buy on the guy. His K's are way down the last two games, but the Nats are 12th in the league in K% and in the bottom half of the league in wOBA against righties. Nice spot and price for Eovaldi. Ervin Santana DraftStreet 13375 Not recommending him everywhere, but on DraftStreet you can more than swing the salary. The Red Sox have had their troubles this season, and aren't nearly the World Series champion you'd expect. Santana has been super solid with an xFIP in the low threes. ...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/25/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/25/14 Our Free Baseball eBook is live! Check out the details, and get your copy now! Don't make another lineup before reading this book! It contains one mistake that basically everyone in the daily fantasy baseball industry is making! Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie. Pitchers Masahiro Tanaka FanDuel 10400 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 23411 If between Tanaka and Wainwright today (because they are the definitive aces taking the mound) I'm going Tanaka. They are similarly priced super high so rolling both on multiple SP sites will be real tough. In fact, for the prices, I think you want to see your opponents roll Wainwright. Quick comparisons: Tanaka: 10.27 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 2.14 xFIP Waino: 8.01 K/9, 1.85 BB/9, 3.10 xFIP These are pretty substantial differences. But the reason they are the same price is Wainwright's Babip and HR/9 are looking super lucky while, if anything, Tanaka has probably been running bad in that latter stat. Tanaka gets a slightly better opponent in the White Sox, but they are still without Jose Abreu and strikeout a ton as a team. Tanaka is the play. Hope your opponents pay up for Wainwright at less than optimal price points. Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9000 DraftKings 9600 DraftStreet 21291 He isn't flashy, but he gets the job done. Bumgarner has been putting in the kind of season he seems to always put in. Low 3's ERA, striking out a batter an inning, about 2.5 walks a game. If you look back at his last few seasons they all just appear identical. It's pretty amazing really. Today he faces the Twins who strikeout 23% of the time against lefties and sit about middle of the pack in team wOBA. Bumgarner is a solid cash game play if you want to save a few bucks from the big boys. Dallas Keuchel FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 10300 DraftStreet 21146 He was pushed back from yesterday to today. Here are my thoughts from Saturday. Really nothing has changed. Our system hasn't caught up to his performance yet, but that's fine. Sometimes you need to use some just good only genius-level judgment (works for me, try it) and roll with a dude who is bringing it this season. The big thing for Dallas this season has been limiting the walks. He's taken his BB/9 from 3.05 to 1.75, keeping needless batters from reaching base. It's working. His ERA and xFIP are below 3 and he's keeping the ball in the ballpark. The...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/25/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/25/14 Our Free Baseball eBook is live! Check out the details, and get your copy now! Don't make another lineup before reading this book! It contains one mistake that basically everyone in the daily fantasy baseball industry is making! Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie. Pitchers Going to get a little weird at pitcher tonight. Stephen Strasburg FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 11400 DraftStreet 21203 Much is made of Strasburg's home/road splits. With good reason. His numbers are significantly better at home than on the road. But there are reasons to like him tonight. First of all, his price is reflective of his ERA and not the underlying numbers that paint a slightly different picture. His xFIP is 2.56 and he's getting nickeled and dimed with a .356 Babip that is allowing innings to extended on him. His K's and BB's are very much in line with his career averages and he's limiting the home run. The Pirates are a fine enough offensive team, but not worth avoiding. I think people will be turned off on Stras because of some either bias (he's screwed them recently) or the H/R thing. I'm putting him in there tonight. Pittsburgh is a pitcher's park and Stras has been unlucky. David Price FanDuel 9300 DraftKings 11200 DraftStreet 19763 I still very much believe. Price is, on paper by some simple metrics, having the best season of his career. He's rocking an unbelievable 13:1 K:BB ratio. He has 77 K's and 6 walks. If you are new to baseball let me bring you up to speed: This is fucking amazing. The problem from price is that the lack of walks has turned into a huge spike in home runs. The latter I don't think is sustainable. His HR/FB% is way out of line with his career averages. But alas, this along with a high Babip against has his ERA in the low 4's while his xFIP is 2.56. The Red Sox are in the top third of the league against lefties, but they also strikeout 22% of the time. I'm taking Price, at home, as an upside play tonight. Dallas Keuchel FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 17366 Our system hasn't caught up to his performance yet, but that's fine. Sometimes you need to use some just good only genius-level judgment (works for me, try it) and roll with a dude who is bringing it this season. The big thing for Dallas this season has been limiting the walks....
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/23/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/23/14 Our Free Baseball eBook is live! Check out the details, and get your copy now! Don't make another lineup before reading this book! It contains one mistake that basically everyone in the daily fantasy baseball industry is making! Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie. Pitchers Clayton Kershaw FanDuel 9700 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 24978 Felix Hernandez FanDuel 9900 DraftKings 12000 DraftStreet 25226 Look, I'm going to knock both of these guys out of the way to start. For me, I don't think I'm paying for them beyond FanDuel. The price is just nuts on DraftKings and DraftStreet. That being said, I know some folks take the stars and scrubs approach to pitchers in this situation. On those sites it just doesn't, to me, seem like the upside is there with the prices. I think there's a small case for it, but I'm not sure I'm willing to make it. That being said, understand that these are by far the two best pitchers going tonight (really any night) and both get quality matchups in Houston and Philly respectively. They both are aces. On FanDuel, I'd probably actually hedge between both in cash games as their prices and expectations are nearly identical. But if the price is through the roof, I think you can make a case to look elsewhere. But in terms of raw points, these are the two guys. John Lackey FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 9800 DraftStreet 14564 There are a couple of reasons I like Lackey tonight against the Rays. To start, he's been a good pitcher this year with an xFIP coming in the low threes, almost three quarters of a run lower than his ERA. He's striking batters out at a higher clip than normal and keeping the free passes in check. The Rays are in the middle of the pack against righties, though they don't strike out much. That is offset though by the ballpark in Tampa really depressing power to all hitters. Lackey most likely doesn't represent a bunch of upside, but his floor is high making him a good cash game play. Tim Lincecum FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 19077 Having been accused of becoming over-infatuated with Lincecum this season, I'll do my best to keep the Linc love to a minimum. But the fact remains that some of Timmy's numbers still bear trumpeting. His xFIP is a full run and a half lower than his ERA. Some of this is thanks to a Babip significantly...
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/22/14
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/22/14 Our Free Baseball eBook is live! Check out the details, and get your copy now! Don't make another lineup before reading this book! It contains one mistake that basically everyone in the daily fantasy baseball industry is making! Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie Pitchers Zack Greinke FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 12100 DraftStreet 23116 Meet the Mets. Meets the Mets. Step right up and beat the Mets. I suspect that's what will be happening today. And though the New York faithful might not exactly appreciate the sentiment, it's very much the case with the blue and orange. They rank real damn close to the bottom on the league in every relevant hitting category against righties. It won't change too terribly much today. Greinke has been an animal this season, striking out more than 10 per 9 and keeping that xFIP under 2.70. He's pitching against one of the weakest hitting bunches in all of baseball in a ballpark that depresses power. He was made for cash games today even if you need to pay. Lance Lynn FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 16722 He's just fine and that's all you are looking for today. After Darvish (who I don't think I'll pay for because of opponent) and Greinke there isa group of arms that all have question marks around them. Either they are coming back from injury, have a less than ideal matchup or both. Lynn represents a guy who can generate strikeouts in the right situation and can grind out some innings. He faces an average Diamondbacks team in Busch Stadium that depresses power to all bats. This is a decent spot for a guy who I don't suspect gets blown up, a very real consideration for many of the pitchers going today. Aaron Harang FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 15530 Can't believe I'm doing it. I'm really doing it. Oh man. Breath Doug, breath. It pains me to say this, but Harang's resurgence just might be for real. With every start, as his sample size grows and the underlying numbers normalize, he looks like just a really good pitcher. I'm as shocked as you. He's striking out more than a batter an inning and his xFIP sits only a fraction about his sub 3 ERA. The Brewers sit in the bottom half of the league against righties, though a little of this is grain-of-salt territory because they've dealt with a number of injuries this year, and Braun is back....