2019-2020 NBA Betting Preview: Can the Trailblazers Repeat Last Year’s Postseason Success?
2019-2020 NBA Betting Preview: Can the Trailblazers Repeat Last Year’s Postseason Success? Leading up to the start of the season, we'll be looking at a bunch of different teams, breaking down their offseasons, and looking ahead how they project relative to their Vegas implied win total. We already covered the New York Knicks and how we liked the over on their wins. We also covered the Brooklyn Nets and their prospects this season. Now, we'll take a closer look at the Portland Trailblazers and how they look heading into the season. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL, NBA and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Portland Trailblazers 2018-2019 Record 52-29 2018-2019 Point Differential +4.2 Offseason Additions Hassan Whiteside Kent Bazemore Mario Hezonja Skal Labasierre Anthony Tolliver Offseason Losses Jusuf Nurkic (recovering from injury) Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Evan Turner Jake Layman Projected Starting Lineup Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Kent Bazemore, Zach Collins, Hassan Whiteside Key Bench Players Rodney Hood, Anfernee Simons, Mario Hezonja Portland is coming off a somewhat improbable playoff run last season, getting to the Western Conference Finals after a walk-off dagger and wave by Damian Lillard in Game 5 of the Thunder series and a grind-it-out seven-game grudge match with the Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals. They were summarily dispatched by the Warriors in a sweep, but it still ranked as a significant accomplishment for this Portland team to make it that far. It was coming off an excellent regular season, finishing 52-29 and third in the Western Conference behind the Rockets and Warriors. All in all, last season was akin to an NBA championship run considering they were still rolling against a mostly-full Warriors’ team. They enter 2019-2020 with some of the same parts, but also major questions about how new additions and key losses will affect their prospects. The engine is, of course, Damian Lillard who finished the season 4th overall in Win Shares according to Basketball Reference with the 3rd-best Offensive Box +/- behind only James Harden and Stephen Curry. In many ways, this team’s success is born out of Lillard’s season-over-season consistency, durability and offensive game that is both explosive and cerebral. There are no concerns around Lillard and what he can contribute on a nightly basis. It’s the rest of the pieces that have me a bit worried. The biggest difference between this year’s Blazers and last year’s is the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. He suffered a horrible leg injury late in the season and his timetable to return this year is muddy at best. He...
2019-2020 NBA Betting Preview – Is there Betting Value in Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, and the New-Look New York Knicks?
Is there Betting Value in Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and the New-Look New York Knicks? New York Knicks 2018-2019 Record 17-65 2018-2019 Point Differential -9.2 2018-2019 Pythagorean Record 16-66 Offseason Additions RJ Barrett - 3rd pick overall Julius Randle Bobby Portis Marcus Morris Taj Gibson Elfrid Payton Offseason Losses DeAndre Jordan Mario Hezonja Emmanuel Mudiay Projected Starting Lineup (This is a fluid situation) Dennis Smith, RJ Barrett, Marcus Morris, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson Key Bench Players Bobby Portis, Kevin Knox, Taj Gibson, Elfrid Payton 2019 Over/Under 28.5 Overview The Knicks stunk last season, getting in the tank early and often with the hopes of securing Zion Williamson in the draft as well as ensuring they opened up enough cap space to grab two max-level superstar types in the offseason. To sum it up: shit didn’t work. Not only did Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving sign across town with the Nets, but the Knicks’ pick fell to three in the draft and they *settled* for RJ Barrett. So it’s easy to have a doom and gloom approach to the Knicks heading into the 2019-2020 seasoned based on the prior expectations, various pieces of organizational mismanagement and just a general feeling that the Knicks are a mess. Though, even with everything going *wrong* this is still a much improved team from last year. For starters, it’s very unlikely they’ll once again be committed to a full on tank. They, almost for sure, saw the downside of that approach (right?) after last season considering it may have signaled more a general malaise than a strict *plan*. Because if the tank doesn’t work out (so to speak) then you are looking at a fairly grim situation. Their offseason signings, after striking out on the big boys, signaled a different approach going forward. They got every power forward type imagineable with Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson while inking everyone on two-year or less deals. It theoretically paves the way for another run at after the 2020-2021 season when there’s a load of dudes hitting the market once again. Like the Nets and Clippers (by way of example) the Knicks might take the win-now approach in an effort to be a more attractive free agent destination. And the players they are bringing in do have some upside in a weakened Eastern Conference. The big addition is Randle coming off a single season in a screwed up New Orleans situation that at times saw him sharing the court with Anthony Davis and other times being part of the Pelicans’ tanking plans. This was following a stint with, at the time, a rudderless Lakers’ team. Yet last year Randle still managed to make...
We Got Nets Episode 7 – A Brooklyn Nets Podcast: Live from the WGN Cabin, Nets Playoff Odds, Podcast Philosophy and Crunch-Time Guys 7/30/19
We Got Nets Episode 7 - A Brooklyn Nets Podcast: Live from the WGN Cabin, Nets Playoff Odds, Podcast Philosophy and Crunch-Time Guys 7/30/19 Episode 7 of We Got Nets, a Brooklyn Nets Podcast is live from the WGN Summer headquarters in Upstate New York. The guys are in person for the podcast and talking everything Brooklyn Nets. Listen on Spreaker: Listen to "We Got Nets Episode 7 - Live from the Cabin, Playoff Odds, Podcast Philosophy and Crunch-Time Guys 7/30/19" on Spreaker. It’s a packed 45 minutes of Brooklyn Nets talk as they hit the dog days of summer. The guys start off talking about the PointsBet betting totals for the Nets’ wins and their chances at the playoffs. Currently, those numbers sit at over/under 45.5 and +400 to *miss* the playoffs. The guys talk about the relevancy around those numbers and how betting against them isn’t necessarily an indictment on the Nets season. They discuss where some of the friction may come from with the Nets hitting certain milestones this season and how Kyrie Irving’s health is a key component. There’s some reason to be worried about Irving’s ability to play a whole season and what that would mean for the Brooklyn chances at improving on last year’s numbers. With that in mind, the guys also discuss the 2018-2019 record and how the 42-40 record could have been about two wins over the pythagorean expectation considering they were outscored for the season. There’s also a philosophical discussion about what the We Got Nets podcast should be about, should it be a fan podcast or maybe discuss things that Nets fans don’t want to “hear”. And finally, they look at possible crunch time lineups for the Nets this season and different combinations that may or may not be able to take the court together. You can also follow along all season to new episodes wherever you listen to podcasts. Listen the We Got Nets - A Brooklyn Nets Podcast on iTunesListen the We Got Nets- A Brooklyn Nets Podcast on SpotifyListen to the We Got Nets - A Brooklyn Nets Podcast on YouTubeListen to the We Got Nets Podcast on Google PodcastsFollow on TwitterFollow on...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 3/31/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 3/31/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Main Pitchers J.A. Happ FD 9300 DK 10100 Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYYFD - 41.5 DK - 22.35 Happ is not going to be the same pitcher he was last year for very much longer. He has struggled mightily in spring training, but the Yankees are expecting him to turn it around in the regular season. Vegas agrees. It has a lot to do with Dylan Bundy, but the Yankees are -355 favorites, giving you as close as it gets to a guaranteed Happ victory. He struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings against both sides of the plate in 2018 and only struggled with right-handed power. This Orioles lineups is up there with the Marlins and Giants as the worst in baseball and we'll be taking advantage of them all season long. They don't have much of a power pop and strike out over 23% of the time as a group. Happ is cheaper than both Carrasco and Corbin and has a much higher floor than both. Patrick Corbin FD 9800 DK 10000 Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - WSHFD - 36.4 DK - 19.76 This Mets lineup is going to underwhelm all season long, and I think we'll end up targeting them against lefties. Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano are their two best bats and both are much worse against lefties. They'll instead rely on Pete Alonso and Wilson Ramos, who are more than volatile bats. Patrick Corbin is a legitimate superstar when healthy and is probably the best number three in baseball. He struck out 11 batters per 9 innings in '18, while holding an elite 2.61 xFIP. The bottom of this order is high-upside and low-risk, with strikeouts aplenty and homers barren. If Corbin is on his game, he will go six or seven innings and could reach double-digit strikeouts. Corbin is my favorite tournament pitcher on the slate. Jon Gray FD 7900 DK 9400 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIAFD - 36.01 DK - 19.08 Outside of a tough outing in his last game, Jon Gray had one of the best spring trainings in the league. With a 22:1 K:BB ratio, hes obviously hitting his spots and is fully healthy. He now gets to match-up against the worst lineup in baseball in Miami. And he's in Miami! Marlins Park is one of the best pitchers ballparks in baseball and the Marlins will have...
DraftKings MLB Picks and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 3/30/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 3/30/19 Greetings, MLB fans! It's my first baseball article of the season, and it's not a moment too soon. I've been knee deep in prospect reports, spring training news, and of course the first few days of the season, and I couldn't be any more pumped to finally be able to write about it. It's unclear as to whether that enthusiasm will still be here in July, but hey, let's make some hay while the sun is shining! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Early Pitchers James Paxton FD 10400 DK 10800 Opponent - BAL (Nate Karns) Park - NYYFD - 40.77 DK - 22.4 On a small slate with a lot of big names, our system is calling out James Paxton in his first start in pinstripes. Paxton was an ace's ace last season, raising his already elite K/9 to 11.68 while shaving a little bit off his walk rate as well. I don't knwo that it's fair to project a similarly incredible season given that he'll be in the meat grinder that is the AL East (and Yankee Stadium), but I still think we can reasonably forecast him to be pretty awesome. Match-ups with the Orioles should help that. A team that was already dead last in the AL in terms of wOBA against left handed pitching lost their best rest right handed bat, and on a tiny slate they represent the best match-up on the slate. Paxton is also a cut above his peers here thanks to the truly absurd -340 money line, where the other big names are basically in pick'ems. Stephen Strasburg FD 9600 DK 10600 Opponent - NYM (Noah Syndergaard) Park - WSHFD - 37.61 DK - 20.27 Noah Syndergaard FD 10100 DK 10200 Opponent - WSH (Stephen Strasburg) Park - WSHFD - 33.02 DK - 17.68 The Mets and Nationals get back to work trading haymakers. After opening day's intense Scherzer-DeGrom match-up, we get treated to an encore of Syndergaard and Strasburg. Vegas sees Stras and the Nats getting their revenge after getting shut out on opening day, but man does this one rate to be close. So where do we land? Let's give you a tale of the tape. While Syndergaard and Strasburg are both ace level pitchers, there are some fundamental differences here. These two had nearly identical 3.28 and 3.29 xFIPs last year, but Strasburg struck out 1.76 more batters per 9 innings. That's naturally going to make him a bit...