Rushing Attacks to Target in Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 for FanDuel and DraftKings We already covered some early looks at optimal NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings when both sites released prices. Now let's start drilling down a little further with some rushing attacks in EV+ spots for Week 1. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! A general rule of thumb in NFL DFS cash games is to begin targeting running backs and running attacks that are in advantageous situations. This is an oversimplification of course but there are some basic metrics we can look at ahead of time to determine whether a running back is in a "good spot." Vegas lines continue to tell us quite a lot about expectation leading into a game. The following two graphs show the Vegas spread a team entered a game with and where the average rushing attempts and yards landed. See that steady downward trajectory as the Vegas line became less favorable for a team? As a quick and dirty rule, we want to target running backs on the left side, those who are favored, preferably at home. It makes sense; teams who come in as heavy favorites are typically better, get a lead early and can run the game out late. Yes, there are diminishing returns for RB1s as the lead extends too far. At some point, teams will start giving their back-ups reps. But for the most part, we want our running backs to be on the favored team. Understanding all of this, there are some key spots that stand out for Week 1. Ravens -4.5 at Dolphins Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 18.64 DK - 19.28 Mark Ingram FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 11.69 DK - 12.69 From Week 11 on, when he took over the starting quarterback role for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson was 7th overall (that’s the entire NFL) in total rushing yards (556) from scrimmage and sixth in total carries (119). The Ravens’ running back Gus Edwards? He was fourth in both yards (654) and carries (122). The Ravens had a plan to keep it on the ground and it worked. They won six of their final seven games on their way to the playoffs. Rest assured they’ll take a similar approach this season. They enter the season as -4 home favorites against a Dolphins’ team gashed by the rush in 2018. Miami allowed the second-most total rushing yards and were...

Five Too-Early DraftKings and FanDuel Week 1 DFS Plays - 8/13/18 Last week FanDuel and DraftKings released their prices for Week 1 about a month early. That gives us a long runway to start fiddling with lineups while we wait for the slog of the preseason to come to a merciful end. In the meantime, let’s take a look at some early optimal lineups and see where our system is possibly looking to start the season.  Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! I ran the top 50 lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. The percentages next to each name are how often they appeared in those lineups.  DraftKings Top 2 Lineups FanDuel Top 2 Lineups Is the Browns’ Hype Train Enough to Play Baker? Baker Mayfield FD 7900 DK 6400 Opponent TENProj Points FD - 21.32 DK - 21.79The Browns come into the season with unbelievable amounts of hype, most of it deserving with the upgrades they made in the offseason. From Week 11 on last season, Baker Mayfield scored the seventh-most fantasy points in the league among quarterbacks and now has a top 5 (or higher?) wide receiver at his disposal in Odell Beckham Jr. The latter finally gets a quarterback with a real-life NFL arm and it stands to reason the Browns step on the gas early and often in Week 1 with their new toys. We tend to like running quarterbacks a bit more for cash games. Mayfield *only* ran for 131 yards in 2018 though did at least show the ability to get out of the pocket when necessary. The Browns have the fifth-highest implied total on the main slate (25.5) and Baker sure seems like a safe option to open the season. Expensive Volume RBs on Bad Teams As of this printing, Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon are still holding out/demanding trades, putting their respective availability for Week 1 in serious doubt. If either (or both) sit there’s almost assuredly going to be punt running back plays to slot in. That’s why this is the “way too early” edition of the picks. Saquon Barkley FD 9200 DK 9000 Opponent DALProj Points FD - 20.38 DK - 23.05Barkley was second in the league behind Ezekiel Elliott in total running back usage (rushing attempts + receiving targets) with 382 looks in 2018. This was 11% more than the next closest running back, Christian McCaffrey, who had 343. The Giants were borderline negligent with Barkley’s usage considering how bad the team was and there’s no reason to...

NFL Podcast - Special Episode Super Bowl Betting Angles, Prop Bets and More 2/1/19 Listen to "NFL Podcast - Betting Angles, Prop Bets and More for the Big Game 2/1/19" on Spreaker. The DFSR crew of Doug Norrie, Chris Durell and James Davis take to the last NFL podcast of the year breaking down the betting angles for the Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Rams. They look at game odds, pick winners and talk about the overall game trends. The guys look at some of the MVP odds to see if there’s any value outside of the quarterbacks. There’s a lot of discussion about individual player props and how game flow will matter with certain narratives. And finally, they roll through some novelty bets you can get in on the game. Subscribe to this podcast on...

Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Plus Prop Bets - Conference Championship This is shaping up to be an almost historic weak of offense for the Conference Championship. We have two games with 56 over/unders on the road to the Super Bowl. There are almost too many great plays. Let's take a look at some of the DFS targets as well as some potential prop bets. New England Patriots (+3) vs. Kansas Chiefs (-3) Patrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 6600 Opponent NE Proj Points FD - 25.37 DK - 26.95 Once again he’s the highest projected fantasy quarterback and it isn’t particularly close. Mahomes didn’t let the stage of his first ever playoff games affect him in the Divisional Round against the Colts. He completed 27-41 passes (66%) and threw for 278 yards. The Chiefs had the game completely under control early (up 24-7 at half) and didn’t need to press Mahomes much. He did scramble for a touchdown which helped save some of his day considering he didn’t throw for any touchdowns. Too long, rushing TDs early put the game almost out of reach. Figuring the Patriots will be able to hang a little more on Sunday will have Mahomes in play as the cash game quarterback even at his elevated price points. Prop Bets Patrick Mahomes Over 308.5 Passing Yards Patrick Mahomes Over 13.5 Rushing Yards   Damien Williams FD 7200 DK 6400 Opponent NE Proj Points FD - 17.26 DK - 19.58 Spencer Ware ended up inactive for the Divisional Round, putting the RB1 duties once again squarely on Damien Williams’ shoulders. I suspected Williams would have gotten all the run even if Ware had been active, but that ended up not being a concern. Things should remain that way this week against the Patriots. Williams played 65 snaps on Sunday and finished with 25/129/1 on the ground and another 5/25 through the air on six targets. This is elite usage and, at this point, he’s almost a game script independent running back. If they get out to a lead he should rack up the carries, but he’s so active in the passing game that he’s getting snaps regardless. Prop bets Damien Williams Rushing Yards Over 64.5 Damien Williams Receiving Yards Over 31.5   Sammy Watkins FD 5600 DK 4000 Opponent NE Proj Points FD - 11.14 DK - 13.04 Watkins represents about as close to a *value* receiver as you’ll find on this two-game slate. He saw eight targets last week after finally returning from the injury that kept him out about a month. Watkins looked no worse for wear and finished with six catches for 62 yards. The main thing to like...

NFL Podcast - Conference Championship Game-by-game Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings DFSR crew is back for their final NFL podcast of the season! It's only a two-game slate this weekend, but thankfully it features four of the most DFS relevant teams of the season. There are some real questions, though. Is Mahomes the clear cut option at QB? If you're deciding between Kelce at a hefty price tag or throwing away the tight end position completely, where should you land? Can we make room for Michael Thomas without sacrificing too much? This week is full of questions. The guys also rank the mid-tier running back options like Sony Michel, Damien Williams, and Mark Ingram, and talk about their favorite mid-tier wide receivers as well. It's a short slate, but an interesting one - and the DFSR guys are here to walk you through it. Subscribe to this podcast on...

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Divisional Round - Sunday With the Eagles, Saints, Patriots, and Chargers playing we actually have some decent players to pick from. But do we have enough cheap value to wind up with lineups that don't include throwaway players that barely touch the ball? Ugh. Let's see what we can do. Looking for Saturday's article? Doug wrote up that two game slate here! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our NBA Optimizer, and our NFL Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.     Los Angeles Chargers (4) vs. New England Patriots (-4) As we get deeper into the playoffs we usually wind up with more good players, which is nice, but we also wind up with worse match-ups, which isn't as nice. The Pats and Chargers were both in the "sneaky good" defensive category this season. Neither of them is necessarily known for their defensive reputation, but each has things they do well. The Chargers were the 12th toughest team in the NFL against the run, and the 9th toughest against the pass. The Patriots allowed the 5th fewest yards per pass to opposing QBs this season, but were pretty bad against the run, allowing the 3rd highest yards per carry in the NFL. This is all relative on a two game slate, of course, but I wanted to get the context out of the way before we got into the specific picks. Melvin Gordon FD 7400 DK 6200 Opponent NE Proj Points FD - 15.19 DK - 16.88 If New England was one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs this season, we should probably think long and hard about running Gordon out there on a two game slate. The case against Gordon is a pretty good one, though. He was bottled up against the Ravens last week, turning his 18 touches into just 43 yards. He split time with Ekeler, and missed a few series with an injury. He's a 4 point dog, so there is some chance that the Chargers are playing from behind here. He also came up with a sore knee after last week, and has been missing practice this week. I still believe that all of that is just precautionary, though. Gordon punched in the Chargers' goal line carry last week, and the Chargers as a whole ran pretty bad in terms...