Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 11 – 11/17/19
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 11 - 11/17/19 Week 11 is upon us, and the DFSR team is here with their picks of the week. With clear plays at QB and RB, could we see 50%+ ownership across all positions this week? Join James and Doug as they break it all down. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 8800 DK 7700 Opponent HOU Proj Points FD - 23.94 DK - 23.9 Deshaun Watson FD 8200 DK 6800 Opponent BAL Proj Points FD - 23.55 DK - 24.43 I suspect this is the debate many have in their lineup creation over the course of the week. It’s a tough one for sure with these two facing off for real on Sunday. The quarterback position, like others, is top-heavy with Jackson and Watson occupying the 1st and 2nd slots in DraftKings points per game this season. Lamar is coming off another masterful Sunday needing really only three quarters to pass for three touchdowns and run for another against the hapless Bengals. As we’ve been preaching all season since Week 1, Jackson’s overall safety comes with his efficiency on the ground where he has 700 rushing yards, twice as many as the next closest quarterback. The 2,000+ passing yards and 66% completion percentage is almost just bonus at this point. Meanwhile, Watson hasn’t been any slouch and is coming off the bye week with some extra time to prepare for the Ravens. Houston comes in as 4.5 road underdogs to the Ravens and the line suggests Houston will need to keep their foot on the gas to keep up with Baltimore. Watson is third in those aforementioned QB rushing yards and has six touchdowns on the ground this season. But he’s also throwing for around 270 yards per game and ranks third in passing touchdowns on the season. The Ravens are 21st in defensive DVOA this year and it stands to reason Houston can put up points here. The other key consideration is price. Watson is $600 less on FanDuel and $900 less on DraftKings. This is significant on a week where we’ll almost for sure want to spend up on at least two stud running backs. In the end, I think price wins out. Though Jackson has a higher floor, I think every penny counts and we end up rostering Watson, but it’s a close decision...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 10 – 11/10/19
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 10 - 11/10/19 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 8600 DK 7300 Opponent CINProj Points FD - 26.93 DK - 27.19 Lamar Jackson’s 637 rushing yards are the 11-most in the league, which would be a nice calling card for some of the running backs out there. But then you get the part where he actually is able to throw the ball as well and it’s easy to see why this guy ranks second overall in DraftKings points per game this season. He’s fresh off a dismantling of the vaunted Patriots’ defense in which he led the Ravens to 37 points by rushing for 61 yards and two touchdowns and throwing for 163 yards (74% completion %) and another TD. He enters Week 10 as, far and away, the best QB option on the main slate. He’ll face a Cincinnati team ranked second to last in DVOA as a -10 road favorite. The biggest concern on Lamar here is the blowout if the Ravens get rolling downhill and he’s not asked to go above and beyond. It’s an expensive price considering that risk, but he’s also head and shoulders the best play at the position. Kyler Murray FD 7700 DK 6500 Opponent TBProj Points FD - 19.74 DK - 20.58 Murray is coming off some rough weeks having to face the 2nd and 6th ranked DVOA defenses in the 49ers and Saints. That led to some underwhelming fantasy performances for the rookie. Additionally, the game against the Giants had Chase Edmonds breaking off three, 20+ yard touchdown runs and Murray wasn’t asked to do much. This is a bounce-back spot against the Bucs who rank in the bottom third against the pass and are fresh off allowing a 5 TD passing game from Russell Wilson. I much prefer Jackson, but think Murray has a high floor in this game considering the Bucs have one of the worst pass defenses around. Given the savings you get and some nice expensive options at other positions, this is an ok way to take things if not playing Lamar. Other thoughts Ok, for starters, Lamar Jackson is far and away the best play at quarterback this week. The dip down from his safety to Murray is significant. There’s basically an elite QB tier of Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson with everyone else...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 9 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 9 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. The boys went over their top Cash Game Plays earlier in the week and also broke down every single game on the Mega Podcast. Now, I will take a look at some leverage plays that we can use in GPP formats to help build unique lineups. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Christian McCaffrey FD 9700 DK 10000 Opponent TEN Proj Points FD - 22.39 DK - 24.62 With Dalvin Cook, Lev Bell, and even Aaron Jones coming with a big discount and in much better matchups I think this is another situation where we can get the best fantasy player in the NFL outside the Top 5 in ownership at the position. He was sub 15% on DraftKings last week facing arguably the best defense in the league(SF) and still put up 30 DraftKings/25 FanDuel points. On the season, he has provided an elite floor leading the league with 25.7 touches and 154 scrimmage yards per game. As you would expect, the upside is also through the roof as he has shown us 5x upside on DK/4.5x upside on FD and while the Titans rank 2nd in DVOA vs. the rush, they have struggled against pass-catching backs allowing the 7th most receiving yards to the position. By no means do I think CMac comes as low owned s last week but I think he is still sub 20% and outside the Top at the position making him a terrific pivot in GPP formats. *Update - McCaffrey has seen some big trends up in tag counts since I wrote this piece but still feel he will be lower owned than the options I mentioned* Courtland Sutton FD 6400 DK 5800 Opponent CLE Proj Points FD - 11.41 DK - 13.49 If you are looking for ultra-low ownership this week for large GPP's, Courtland Sutton is surrounded by wideouts(D.K. Metcalf, Tyrell Williams, Marvin Jones, John Brown) who will garner 10-15% ownership. Adding to the projected low ownership is the fact Sutton lost his starting quarterback, Joe Flacco, for the season leaving a fairly unknown Brandon Allen under...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 9 – 11/3/19
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 9 - 11/3/19 Week 9 is upon us! DFSR split last week on FanDuel and DraftKings, moving our season long record for main slate cash games to a respectable 10-4-1. With a couple of chalk plays going away heading into week 9, can we still find the same exploitable strategies? I say yes. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Russell Wilson FD 8600 DK 7100 Opponent TB Proj Points FD - 22.28 DK - 22.88 Look, Wilson is having an MVP-caliber season so recommending him in cash games again isn’t going out on any kind of metaphoric limb. But the obviousness of the play doesn’t preclude us from making it. He’s second overall in DraftKings QB scoring this season and has thrown 17 touchdowns to only one interception. His 8.51 yards per attempts are the fourth-most among quarterbacks who’ve attempted more than 200 passes this season while also being serviceable on the ground. He has 182 rushing yards with three TDs, tied for second-most in the league. Tampa Bay has something of a funnel defense, ranking first against the run, but 25th against the pass. This could lend itself to more passing attempts from Wilson. The overall volume for Wilson is the only thing “holding him back” seeing as how he ranks 13th in passing attempts. It’s a testament to how freaking efficient this dude is when he actually throws the ball. I suspect we see high ownership on Wilson on both sites. Aaron Rodgers FD 8100 DK 6900 Opponent LAC Proj Points FD - 20.32 DK - 21.04 After some lower output weeks to start the season, Rodgers has turned the clock back over the last three games. He’s averaged 339 passing yards per game in that stretch with a 10:1 TD:INT rate and has even scrambled for 45 yards on the ground. The Chargers are a bottom-third DVOA defense on the season and rank 28th against the pass. What’s even more about Rodgers’ recent run is that he’s doing it without his best wide receiver in Davante Adams. The latter is expected to return for Week 9 after missing the last four weeks. This, theoretically, should give the passing game an added boost and though I prefer Wilson in a similar price range Rodgers makes for an excellent cash game play. The Cheaper Options I great prefer Wilson, and to...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8 – 10/27/19
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8 - 10/27/19 Week 8 is here! McCaffrey returns to the main slate, we see a potential changing of the guard at the top end of DFS quarterbacks, and we have some excellent cash game punt plays at running back. There are some interesting odds being put out from the best sports betting sites, and we're all systems go for another great week. DFSR improved its cash game record to 10-3-1 last week. Can the great roll continue? Read on and find out! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Deshaun Watson FD 8400 DK 7100 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 23.36 DK - 24.74 Lamar Jackson, the DraftKings QB1 on the season (and history maker), is off this week. But there are some other high-floor options going and I think we will have the ability to fit them in cash games considering the savings we are getting at others spots in the lineup. Both Watson, and Wilson below are in awesome matchups against terrible defenses. Watson is QB2 on the season and faces an Oakland team ranked 19th in DVOA against the pass. They’ve allowed the 9th-most passing yards this season and Watson’s dual-threat abilities do line up for the nearly perfect cash game play. While he’ll likely be without Will Fuller in this game, the Texans have started feeding DeAndre Hopkins over the last couple of weeks and Kenny Stills/ Keke Coutee are healthy now. Since Week 3, Watson is fourth in passing yards, second in touchdowns and third in QB rushing yards. Russell Wilson FD 8600 DK 7200 Opponent ATL Proj Points FD - 23.39 DK - 24.02 The Falcons have just been murdered on defense this season, allowing the second most passing yards in the league and making it awfully easy for opposing offenses. It’s becoming something of a joke really. They’ve allowed two top-15 QB games already (Watson and Murray) and could be in for it again on Sunday against Wilson. The latter is coming off a tough Week 7 that saw him complete fewer than 50% of his passes, but a bounce back is in the cards here. Even with that bad game, Wilson is still DraftKings QB3 on the season. He is tied for the league-lead in passing touchdowns (15) despite have the fewest attempts of that top group. He’s fifth in QB rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns. The Seahawks come in with a 29 team total though admittedly this is a week that has some big numbers in that category. I think, for cash games, this is going to be something of a coin flip between Watson and...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Doug and James covered the top cash games plays earlier in the week and also broke down every game from a fantasy perspective on the weekly Mega Podcast. In this article, I am going to look at a couple of leverage plays for us to pivot to in GPP formats to get lower ownership. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Matt Breida FD 5600 DK 5300 Opponent WAS Proj Points FD - 10.78 DK - 11.64 Of those four teams on bye in Week 7, we lose a ton of running back talent in Nick Chubb, James Conner, and Christian McCaffrey. This combined with some plus matchups really narrows the field of top running backs and will naturally raise their ownership levels but on the flip side also presents some opportunities to pivot off the chalk(Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Saquon Barkley). Even in the mid-range, there are some pivots as Latavius Murray is gaining steam with Kamara being ruled out. My pivot in this range will be with Matt Breida who appears could be about half the ownership of his own teammate Tevin Coleman. The 49ers get an excellent matchup against a Redskins team that has given up the 10th most rushing yards and 5th most receiving yards to running backs. Coleman is going to get the bulk of the carries(34-24 last two weeks) but Breida is the preferred passing-down back. Either way, both backs should get a ton of work this week with the 49ers a 10-point favorite against a weak defense and they run(57%) more than any other team in the league. I also like to see that the combined rushing/receiving yards prop for Breida is actually set a yard higher than Coleman. I will have exposure to both running backs in this matchup but if Breida continues to be projected for half the ownership, I may run more of a 70/30 split between them. Adam Thielen FD 7100 DK 6900 Opponent DET Proj Points FD - 13.17 DK - 15.8 Brandin Cooks FD 6700 DK 5400 Opponent ATL Proj Points...