Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns for FanDuel and DraftKings Divisional Round – Saturday
Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns for FanDuel and DraftKings Divisional Round - Saturday It's the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, and Saturday's slate features the two teams with the best odds to meet in the Superbowl squaring off against the two teams that pulled off Wild Card round upsets. Will these games be as lopsided as the spreads suggest, or do the Titans and Vikings still have some magic left in the tank? Let's have a look. And also check in on our picks for Sunday's Divisional Round games Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Minnesota Vikings (7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7) The Vikings worked their overtime magic against the Saints as 8 points dogs last week, and now Vegas is giving them a hair more respect against a better 49ers team. We know how the Vikes operated in a tight one vs. the Saints, but how will they do here? Let's see what our system thinks. The Minnesota Vikings Dalvin Cook FD 8600 DK 8000 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 20.85 DK - 22.61 If you're considering a Viking this Saturday, there's pretty much one name you need to know. Cook was the target of 33 of the Vikings 71 plays from scrimmage, and while it's true that the Vikings found themselves in the unlikely position of having a commanding lead through three quarters, that was the situation they were in nonetheless. It was clear from the opening kickoff that the Vikes wanted to keep the Saints off the field, and one has to assume they'll try the same against the Niners this week. Now one might look at this and say, "James, the 49ers have the best DVOA of any team left in the playoffs! Surely we can't play Cook against them!" Well, hypothetical skeptic, it's true that the Niners have a great defense. But there are only four teams going on Saturday, and the Vikings have to do something when they get the ball offensively. The Vikes have also shown many times this season that they are willing to go all in on the Cook plan, especially when the opposing defense is better against the pass than against the run. The 49ers are exactly that, as they ranked 2nd this season in DVOA against the pass but "just" 12th against the run. Given the fact that two teams playing on Saturday don't really feature traditional RB1,...
Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns for FanDuel and DraftKings Wild-Card Round – Saturday
Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns for FanDuel and DraftKings Wild-Card Round - Saturday Also take a look at our preview for Sunday's Wildcard games Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Buffalo Bills (2.5) vs. Houston Texans (-2.5) Both the Bills and Texans had the luxury of resting their starters for week 17, and both return with a (mostly) clean bill of health for their wild card clash. If this were a normal week of DFS this isn't likely a game we'd be targeting. The Bills ranked 6th in overall defense this season, and while Houston ranked 26th, the Bills haven't exactly been a team we've turned to for a lot of DFS value. On a two game slate, though? It will be impossible to not have a few plays from this game. Let's take a look and see what we can find. Houston Texans Deshaun Watson FD 8500 DK 6400 Opponent BUF Proj Points FD - 19.66 DK - 20.43 DeAndre Hopkins FD 8700 DK 7700 Opponent BUF Proj Points FD - 17.41 DK - 21.04 There is a path to playing the big pieces in the Houston passing game this week, but it is certainly going to require concessions at other positions. With Derrick Henry sitting alone atop the running back charts, though, you will want to spend up somewhere, and neither is a bad bet. Watson and Hopkins are the next two most expensive plays on the slate after Henry, and the big decision here is whether you want to run them against the Bills 6th ranked defense or run Henry against the Patriots and their top ranked defense. With a gun to my head I'd guess we don't wind up playing Watson because the savings you can get going down to Tannehill are too enticing, but that Hopkins winds up making the cut. Hopkins gets an extra boost from Will Fuller returning here, as defenses have been a lot more prone to shadowing him when Will Fuller was absent. Carlos Hyde FD 6400 DK 5100 Opponent BUF Proj Points FD - 10.45 DK - 10.76 Will Fuller FD 5600 DK 4900 Opponent BUF Proj Points FD - 10.82 DK - 13.03 The cheaper Texans. I'd guess Will Fuller winds up being close to a unanimous play this week simply because he's so darned cheap. This is a guy who has plenty of disappearances on his resume this season, but...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 17
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 17 We made it to week 17, y'all! After a fantastic week 16 here in DFSR land we're ready to bring the heat again this week, but it won't be easy. Week 17 always contains a slew of mixed motivations, odd game scripts, and bizarre spreads. That being said, let's do our best to find that value and safety. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Carson Wentz FD 7700 DK 6100 Opponent NYGProj Points FD - 21.48 DK - 22.27 Dak Prescott FD 8000 DK 6300 Opponent WASProj Points FD - 21.88 DK - 22.78 On a week with varying motivations around the league, we get a little lucky at quarterback in that there are a number of solid signal-callers with something to play for. We’ll start in the NFC East where the Eagles control their own destiny if they can wrap up a win over the Giants. Wentz has thrown for 300+ yards in three of the last four weeks with nine touchdowns to only one interception. He’ll get a Giants’ team ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and this is a smash spot for really the whole Eagles’ team in terms of fantasy. Meanwhile, Dak is in a similar situation though things aren’t quite in his hands the same way they are for Wentz. With the Cowboys losing to the Eagles in Week 16 Dallas will need Philly to lose and DemBoys to win. That being said, there’s of course reason to believe Dallas goes all out. Prescott, after putting together an excellent statistical season, struggled last week against the Eagles. He was on his way to a very nice game against the Rams in Week 15 but the blowout got in the way. He’ll now get a Washington team ranked 20th in defensive DVOA and should have a solid floor considering the circumstances. He’s the fifth-best DraftKings points per game quarterback on the season and has the second-best consistency ranking among that group. I feel comfortable running both of these guys in cash though would probably defer to Wentz simply because there’s no doubt the Eagles keep their foot on the gas the whole game whereas there are scenarios this isn’t the case with Dallas. Robert Griffin III FD 7000 DK 5100 Opponent PITProj Points FD - 18.37 DK - 18.98 The Ravens are going to rest some...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 16
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 16 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 9300 DK 8000 Opponent CLE Proj Points FD - 25.6 DK - 25.02 In Week 15, Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s record for most quarterback rushing yards in a season, and he’s now going to give himself a two-week buffer on that number. He’s expensive for sure, but with Baltimore still very much fighting for home field advantage in the AFC and likely wanting to stomp a division rival in the Browns, Jackson has an incredibly high floor in this game. From a safety perspective, no player has been more consistent on a week-to-week basis than Jackson, leading the league in FanDuel per game scoring with the lowest coefficient of variation (.23) by a considerable margin. Seeing as how he kills teams both through the air and on the ground, the floor is so high on his production. Sure, Browns represent one of the two Ravens’ losses this season, but since Week 4 these teams have gone in decidedly different directions. Jackson still managed 3 passing touchdowns and 66 yards on the ground in that game and this week are 10-point road favorites. Don’t let that early season loss cloud your judgment here, Jackson is the safest play at the position once again and we are only arguing about price at this point. Russell Wilson FD 8300 DK 7000 Opponent ARI Proj Points FD - 21.69 DK - 22.53 Dak Prescott FD 8000 DK 6400 Opponent PHI Proj Points FD - 21.13 DK - 22.18 These guys are in the next tier down and possibly where we end up going in cash games simply because of the saving from Jackson. I suspect from an optics perspective more folks would prefer Wilson in this matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the most opponent plays from scrimmage this season (67.5/game) and have been terrible against the pass, ranking 29th in DVOA. After a couple of down weeks, Wilson was solid against the Panthers, throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns on just 26 attempts while not even getting out in the running game at all (-1 yard). I’m a little worried about potential volume problems here even with the matchup because there are many scenarios in which he once again attempts fewer than 30 passes in a game that could get out of hand....
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Russell Wilson FD 8100 DK 7000 Opponent CAR Proj Points FD - 21.75 DK - 22.81 Wilson is off some tough weeks that have seen a dip in production from a guy who was among the fantasy scoring leaders at the position for much of the first half of the season. The interceptions regressed some, throwing one in each of the last four games after not yielding a single one through the first seven. But now he heads into Carolina to face a Panther team fresh off giving up 40 to Atlanta in Week 14. The Seahawks 27.25 implied points are the second-highest of the main slate and Wilson should have his hand all over that number. He’s second only to Lamar Jackson in TD:INT rate this season and ranks fifth in quarterback rushing yards. I see this as a bounce back opportunity for Wilson with the price coming down in the short term. Dak Prescott FD 7800 DK 6300 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 21.01 DK - 22.07 Only two teams in football have a losing record and a positive point differential: the Colts (+1.0) and the Cowboys (+67!!). And yet here they are in a borderline must-win game against the Rams at home as they struggled to keep a grip on the NFC East. Dak ranks fourth in FanDuel points per game and fifth on DraftKings. From a game-to-game consistency standpoint, he ranks behind only Lamar Jackson in coefficient of variation and he could be in a high volume spot against the Rams on Sunday. Prescott is averaging more than 38 pass attempts per game because of game scripts this season and though the rushing is down against his career numbers, he still has 223 yards this year. I love the DraftKings price especially where he’s the seventh-most expensive quarterback on the main slate. Keep an eye on any injury fallout from the hand issue that cropped up in Week 14 against the Bears, but he should be good to go. Other thoughts Patrick Mahomes is in another great spot but I’m a little worried about the injury situation there. Carson Wentz has an okay matchup against the Redskins, but the Eagles just continue to lose skill position players to injury. Running Backs Christian McCaffrey FD 10400 DK 10000 Opponent SEA Proj...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 14 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 14 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Earlier in the week, James broke down his favorites cash game targets and then teamed up with Doug for the Mega Podcast where they broke down every single game and fantasy-relevant play. I will now be taking a look at some GPP pivots based on ownership projections. Let's get started! When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Sony Michel FD 6600 DK 5600 Opponent KC Proj Points FD - 9.21 DK - 9.38 Phillip Lindsay FD 6400 DK 5300 Opponent HOU Proj Points FD - 12.17 DK - 13.36 I am going to start this week with a pair of mid-range running backs who make nice GPP pivots off the chalk in this range. Yes, I am talking about Devonta Freeman and James White who have both exceeded 30 tags on FanShareSports at this point in the week. Let's start with Sony Michel who has been very inconsistent all season with some of the blame falling on him as he is down from 4.5 to 3.5 yards per carry in comparison to last year. I say some of the blame as from a fantasy perspective, the volume has been hit or miss which we shouldn't be surprised by in the Pats backfield. This game also has the highest total on the slate and the Chiefs rank 30th in DVOA against the run and dead last in fantasy points per game given up to running backs. What does this mean? A lot of volume and opportunity to hit the ceiling game at a discounted ownership. I don't even mind pairing him with White in some GPP builds and either way, I will have plenty of exposure to the Pats backfield this week. You can tell by these picks that I love the punishment of watching running back committee's on Sunday afternoon. This leads us to Phillip Lindsay who, like Michel, has been inconsistent for fantasy sharing the ball with Royce Freeman but has still impressed gaining 4.7 yards per carry and catching 78% of his targets. The Broncos are nine-point underdogs in this one but the matchup does stand...