DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/21/22 – Main Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/21/22 - Main Slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Kevin Gausman FD 10200 DK 10200 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHWFD - 38.67 DK - 20.96 Gausman is having one of the best pitching seasons in all of the majors this time around, striking out almost 10 batters per nine with a better than 7:1 K:BB ratio. His 2.83 xFIP is nearly half a run better than the 3.21 ERA as well. The White Sox rank in the bottom-third of the league in team wOBA and they strike out more than 20% of the time. The Blue Jays aren’t overwhelming road favorites here (-136) but I just think Gausman comes in as such a safe option. Nestor Cortes FD 10500 DK 10400 Opponent - TB (Undecided) Park - TBFD - 35.71 DK - 19.93 There’s no early line on this game while Tampa still decides on its starting pitching, but there’s a lot to like with Cortes regardless. He has similar peripherals to Gausman in terms of the K’s and walks, and on Tuesday gets to pitch in one of the elite pitcher’s parks. Plus, the Rays ranks 27th overall in team offense this season (4th to last for those counting) and they strikeout more than 23% of the time. The Yankees will definitely be favorites here and the only real concern for Cortes is the price. Strongly consider Sean Manaea (FD $9900 DK $9000) at home against the Diamondbacks. Catcher/First Base Ty France FD 3500 DK 4200 Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAKFD - 13.83 DK - 10.55 We don’t often recommend a ton of Mariners, but Ty France is a guy we’ve been consistently on this season and it’s paid off. He has an .868 OPS with 10 home runs and he puts the ball in play around 80% of the time. France is very difficult to strike out (13%) and for his career has been as platoon neutral as it gets so we aren’t worried about righty or lefty splits. The Mariners 4.7 implied run line isn’t the highest of the day, but it’s solid and you don’t have to break the bank for France’s production. Daniel Vogelbach FD 2500 DK 2500 Opponent - CHC (Matt Swarmer) Park - CHCFD - 11.6 DK - 8.62 Our optimizer was very much on the Pirates as a stack on Monday and that paid off with the team putting up a whopping...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/17/22 – Main Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/17/22 - Main Slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Clayton Kershaw FD 10500 DK 10500 Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - CLEFD - 40.55 DK - 21.98 Kershaw is the day’s biggest favorite coming in at -265 at home against the Cleveland Guardians. The latter has been a below-average offense on the season, though they don’t strike out a ton which is a little concerning. And the other concern is that Kershaw isn’t quite up to a full workload yet, with just one start under his belt after the time on the IL. He threw just 71 pitches in that one so he might be capped here. We will have to keep an eye on this situation, but this is a guy with a 7:1 K:BB ratio on the year so he’s tough to ignore. Carlos Rodón FD 10700 DK 9900 Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - PITFD - 38.21 DK - 21.18 Rodon is another big favorite, ringing in at -206 on the road against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the 28th ranked offense on the season and strike out 25% of the time, making them close to a perfect matchup for the lefty. The walks have been a bit of a problem for Rodon, but he’s still striking out more than 11 batters per nine on the season with an xFIP in the low-3s. He doesn’t have as much control as Kershaw, but there’s a good chance he throws more pitches in this one. It might be tough to get away from Tarik Skubal (FD $9900 DK $9000) on DraftKings especially if you are trying to fit in some of the Coors bats. He’s been excellent on the season. Catcher/First Base Luke Voit FD 3600 DK 3800 Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COLFD - 15.79 DK - 11.84 Get ready to see a bunch of Padres here today considering they are heading into Coors for the weekend and will start things off facing the lefty Kyle Freeland. Voit has actually been a reverse platoon guy for his career, hitting better against righties, but it’s a bit closer to just being platoon neutral. He’s still good against lefties with a mid-800s OPS and .353 wOBA. It’s hard to get away from his sub-$4K DraftKings price considering he should hit cleanup for San Diego on Friday. You can also consider Austin Nola (FD $2900 DK $3400) right along with him, especially on DraftKings...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/14/22 – Main Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/14/22 - Main Slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD 10400 DK 10500 Opponent - TB (Corey Kluber) Park - TBFD - 40.7 DK - 22.93 Don’t let the 3.63 ERA for Cole fool you here, the 2.79 xFIP is almost a full run lower and he continues to be one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball. He has a 5:1 K:BB ratio on the season and is still striking guys out at a 31% clip. Cole comes into Tuesday as a -220 favorite at home against the Rays who rank 25th in team wOBA and strikeout out 23% of the time. This is a smash spot for Cole though you will need to pay for the privilege. Dylan Cease FD 9600 DK 8800 Opponent - DET (Drew Hutchison) Park - DETFD - 32.47 DK - 17.88 There was no early line on this game, though it stands to reason that Cease will be a heavier favorite against Hutchison and the Tigers. Cease has one of the highest K/9 rates in the majors at 12.71 and has proven to have elite swing and miss stuff over the last couple of seasons. The big change was ditching his changeup in favor of a splitter and mostly just throwing three pitches. It’s completely worked. The Tigers ranks dead last in offensive wOBA this season and are basically one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. Catcher/First Base Wilmer Flores FD 2800 DK 3800 Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KCFD - 12.49 DK - 9.53 Darin Ruf FD 2800 DK 3700 Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KCFD - 13.85 DK - 10.4 If we are on the hunt for cheaper options to be able to fit the top arms as well as some bats from Coors, then these two guys could fit the bill on Tuesday. Both are coming under $3K on FanDuel and under $4K on DraftKings meaning we are getting some savings. And both are coming on the better side of their splits facing the lefty Bubic. For his career, Flores has an .810 OPS against lefties with a .340 wOBA and a .218 ISO. Those are all significantly better than what he’s done against righties. But since he plays against both pitchers, the price is driven down across the board. Now is the time to play him. Meanwhile, Run has been elite against lefties for his career...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/10/22 – Main Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/10/22 - Main Slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Joe Musgrove FD 10900 DK 10500 Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COLFD - 39.93 DK - 21.61 Musgrove is in an excellent spot on Friday and could end up being one of the most popular pitchers on the slate. He’s facing the Rockies at home as a -264 favorite. Colorado, away from Coors, is one of the worst hitting teams in the league with a .284 team wOBA. Meanwhile, Musgrove has been ultra-efficient this season, with a 4.6:1 K:BB ratio while averaging more than 6.5 innings per start. He’s not as good as the 1.64 ERA would suggest, but he fits the bill for what we are looking for in a cash game pitcher on Friday. Luis Severino FD 10200 DK 10300 Opponent - CHC (Wade Miley) Park - CHCFD - 37.98 DK - 20.48 I suppose folks will be going back and forth between Musgrove and Severino in this price tier for Friday, and that makes sense. In terms of projection, they are very similar and have a lot of the same factors working in their favor. Severino is a -250 home favorite against the Cubs and has been striking out batters at an almost 10Ks/ 9 clip. He doesn’t go as deep into games as Musgrove, but he has more swing and miss stuff. Putting them together on DraftKings might be tough, especially when it comes to fitting in bats. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4000 DK 5400 Opponent - DET (Elvin Rodriguez) Park - DETFD - 13.54 DK - 10.19 The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run lines on the day facing off against the Tigers and Elvin Rodriguez. The righty Rodriguez has gotten rocked in his first 16 major league innings and things have looked bad on that front for the 24-year-old. Meanwhile, Guerrero isn’t having the same kind of season he did the last time around when he was one of the best hitters in the league, but he’s running about 60 points off his average BABIP. He still has 13 home runs on the year and walks more than 11% of the time. He’s an excellent pay-up option in this matchup. MJ Melendez FD 2600 DK 3900 Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BALFD - 11.48 DK - 8.67 Melendez should be hitting in the middle of the Royals’ order when they face the...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/7/22 – Main Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/7/22 - Main Slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Carlos Rodón FD 9900 DK 10300 Opponent - COL (Germán Márquez) Park - COLFD - 41.5 DK - 23.21 After starting the season like gangbusters, Rodon has cooled off some over his last few starts. But he remains one of the best options on Tuesday thanks to a couple of key factors. For starters, he’s still striking out more than 11 batters per nine on the season, and the ERA is in the mid-3s despite one complete disaster of a start a couple of weeks ago. He’s a -202 home favorite against the Rockies who are a pretty bad offense outside of Coors and San Fran has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Kyle Wright FD 10500 DK 10100 Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAKFD - 42.02 DK - 23 Kyle Wright is another guy in a fantastic spot here on Tuesday with one of the best matchups going in the majors against the Oakland A’s. The Athletics have been jockeying with the Tigers for worst offense in the majors this season and they strike out more than 24% of the time. Wright is a -235 home favorite and has been amazing this season with a 2.41 ERA thanks to a 27.5% K rate. The walks remain a bit problematic, but this matchup against a terrible offense mitigates that to some degree. On FanDuel it’s tough to pick between these two guys in cash for sure. Catcher/First Base Ryan Mountcastle FD 3100 DK 3100 Opponent - CHC (Keegan Thompson) Park - CHCFD - 10.86 DK - 8.29 Adley Rutschman FD 2300 DK 4000 Opponent - CHC (Keegan Thompson) Park - CHCFD - 9.5 DK - 7.23 We are going to almost definitely want to spend up at pitching, likely stacking too of the more expensive arms on DraftKings, so we’ll have to find some deals on the bats whenever possible. The Orioles actually have one of their higher implied run lines on the season with the number sitting around 4.8 at the time of this writing. Mountcastle, for his price, has been fine enough this season with an OPS in the mid-700s thanks to eight home runs and he’s even added a couple of stolen bases. Keegan Thompson is a low-K arm so I think we can punt a bit on DraftKings with this guy at 1B. Meanwhile, Adley Rutschman is one...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/4/22 – Afternoon Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/4/22 - Afternoon Slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Nick Pivetta FD 9000 DK 7900 Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - OAKFD - 34.37 DK - 18.31 The pitching options on the afternoon slate aren’t exactly amazing so we are looking at probably paying down a bit at the position. Pivetta has been fine this season all things considered with an ERA just under 4.00 while he’s striking out just a hair under a batter per inning. The good news here is that he has one of the best matchups around against the A’s who rank last in the league in team wOBA while striking out 24% of the time, fifth-most in the league. Pivetta won’t cost much and helps fitting in some more guys on offense. Pablo López FD 10000 DK 10100 Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SFFD - 35.88 DK - 19.19 I’m putting him under Pivetta here, not because he’s a worse pitcher, he’s actually much better, but because Lopez is much more expensive and doesn’t have quite the same win odds as Pivetta. The MIA-SF game is about even in terms of odds, though has a very low (7) run line. Lopez is striking out about 9.5 batters per nine this season with a 1.83 ERA though the 3.08 xFIP tells a slightly different story. I think pairing him and Pivetta on DK is completely fine and still leaves some wiggle room with the bats. Catcher/First Base Ty France FD 3500 DK 4900 Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEXFD - 13.81 DK - 10.53 France is having an excellent season with an OPS right around .900 thanks to a better than 80% contact rate and a .151 ISO. In terms of OPS and wOBA, France has been around platoon neutral for his career, so we aren’t worried about the matchup against the righty Otto. The Mariners are projected for about 4.5 runs at this point, and France is coming at a fair price on both sites. Joey Votto FD 2800 DK 3100 Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSHFD - 12.21 DK - 9.14 The Reds are tied for the highest implied run line on this slate at 5.2 and we are going to want to think about stacking this team in cash. They get to go in one of the best hitter’s park in baseball against Erick Fedde who’s had some control issues this season....