Changing our Priors - What we can learn from Time of Possession More than any other DFS sport, per-minute production tends to stay relatively constant in the NBA. At the end of the season, most players will perform more or less how they did last year unless they are very young, very old, or injured. But what about the outliers - those players that produce differently in spite of being the same people? Welcome to the Changing Our Priors series. Our first lesson? Time of possession. Want to see the rest of this article? Go grab a free three day trial of DFSR Pro or DFSR Basic! Your subscription will include access to premium content, our lineup optimizer, our members only chatroom, and more! START YOUR FREE TRIAL - AND READ THE REST!...

Daily Fantasy College Football Picks and Betting Spotlight (Premium) for DraftKings - Week 10 Week 10, wow this season is flying by. We have our first set of rankings and if you've been following along we really aren't surprised by the current top four. I warned Texas to be careful, but they couldn't stop the Cowboys from crushing their playoff hopes. This week, Georgia will need to get by Kentucky to keep their hopes alive and at 8pm EST we have the battle of the Titans: Bama vs LSU. I'm curious what happens to LSU if they lose. This week, Notre Dame is on the watch list. Northwestern is going to give them more trouble than people think. On the fantasy side of things, Draftkings has put together a monster of a slate with potentially multiple high-scoring games and reasonable pricing. Let's get after it!   Quarterback Eric Dungey -Syracuse DK 8400 Opponent Wake Forest Team Total - 40 Y’all have no idea much of a struggle it is to put Dungey in this coveted top spot. I have an epic run bad streak going when it comes to rostering Dungey. The guy is essentially a lock for 40 points, but weird things happen just about every time he makes his way into my lineup. The matchup and salary here are just so insanely plum I need to put my emotional concerns aside because we could be staring a 50 point week in the face. Wake Forest would allow 500 yards of offense to a high school team right now so I don't anticipate Syracuse having much trouble moving the ball. While Wake Forest has struggled mightily on defense the same cannot be said for their offense. The Demon Deacons have had success moving the ball and scoring against just about everyone not named Clemson including last week’s 56 spot against Louisville. Vegas has the total at 75, but i think that's a little light as i think could see almost 75 in the first half. Dungey’s dual threat ability will be on full display for 60 minutes come Saturday and you won't want to be late for the party. Very simply put, Dungey checks all the boxes and the matchup checks all the boxes. Way too much upside to pass on him. Nathan Elliott -North Carolina DK 6000 Opponent Georgia Tech Team Total - 28 There are a few guys I think will have a better game than Elliott, but not when we consider the price. Now, I will be very hard-pressed to get away from Dungey in the quarterback slot, but Elliott is certainly someone we should consider for our Superflex. He’s had an up and down...

GPP Pivot Plays for Week 8 on FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8 is here and with another 10-game main slate with some clear chalk plays, finding those GPP pivots can be the difference in min cashing or winning a large contest. Let's dig in and take a look at some of those pivots at each position. When analyzing ownership projections, my top source is FanShareSports who compile every piece of relevant DFS content(articles, podcasts, tweets, videos, etc) and put it all together in an easy to read platform showing overall tag counts, start/sit counts, sentiment rating, and so much more. With all that said, let's jump into this week's top pivot plays. Want to see the rest of this article? Go grab a free three day trial of DFSR Pro or DFSR Basic! Your subscription will include access to premium content, our lineup optimizer, our members only chatroom, and more! START YOUR FREE TRIAL - AND READ THE...

Making Sense of Early Season NBA Stats We are less than two weeks into the season and some trends are already starting to emerge. For instance, scoring is way up this season. Last year's games had an average 212.67 points per game. This year? 224.65. That’s around a 5.5% increase just for starters. I suspect we see it normalize some over the course of the season, but there’s no doubt teams are playing faster paces across the board just for starters. Early in the season, especially from a DFS perspective, it can be instructive to look at some players who are over or underperforming certain numbers from the season before to see if we can make any meaningful conclusions about whether the numbers are sustainable. I looked at some key stats from last season (on a per minute basis to remove some weirdness around game scripts, foul trouble, etc) to find out who we might be buying high or low on this early. Scoring Per Minute Drop-off Kyrie Irving 2018 Points Per Minute - .76 2019 Points Per Minute - .49 After an excellent 2018 campaign, his first as a Celtic, Kyrie’s season was cut short due to injury. This sseason, he’s struggled to find the scoring touch early on. It stood to reason we’d see at least some decrease in usage from Kyrie considering the Celtics came into the season at full strength (Hayward back, etc) and with some of their role players gaining increased confidence because of a strong playoff run on the back of the young guys. So projecting Irving’s scoring a bit lower for this year seemed reasonable. But he’s also really struggling from three, shooting 21% on six attempts per game. The usage is mostly there, averaging 16.4 shots per game (18 shots per game last year) but the overall FG% is down as well (40%, 46% career). I think we see Kyrie tick back up the scoring as the season moves on and while others might be bearish on him because of the early season struggles, I think we are generally buying low on his scoring upside. Jrue Holiday 2018 Points Per Minute - .52 2019 Points Per Minute - .32 The Pelicans have scored roughly a bajillion points to start the season but it hasn’t been because Jrue’s been dropping buckets. For all of their scoring prowess, they haven’t needed Holiday one bit. His shot attempts per minute are down, which could be a season-long trend because of the additions of Elfrid Payton and a full season of Nikola Mirotic, but Holiday is also been running ice cold from the field. He’s yet to hit a three-pointer (0-11 going into Friday night’s...

Daily Fantasy Football Top Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8 - 10/28/18 Welcome back football fans. With a week where four teams are on Bye's and another London game, we have a smaller 10-game slate once again. We went over our top picks for cash games in the Cash Game Article so now let's take a look at some of the top stacking options for GPP formats. Want to see the rest of this article? Go grab a free three day trial of DFSR Pro or DFSR Basic! Your subscription will include access to premium content, our lineup optimizer, our members only chatroom, and more! START YOUR FREE TRIAL - AND READ THE REST! Indianapolis Colts Quarterback - Andrew Luck Primary Target - TY Hilton Secondary Target - Eric Ebron When breaking down games with Vegas Total(50+) and a thin spread(3.5 or less) with quarterbacks who are projected to throw the ball a ton, there was only one name that popped up this week on the Player Lab. James wrote him up in his Cash Game Article this week and not only does he possess a high floor but he also provides us with a ton of upside for GPP formats as well. A common topic with Luck since his return from injury is the lack of arm strength which resulted in a low 6.3 yards per attempt but I am not concerned at all. Not only does he lead the league with a whopping 311 passing attempts he also sits second to Patrick Mahomes in touchdown passes with 20. The Colts currently have the fifth-highest implied points(26.8) on the main slate and of those five teams this game is the only one with a spread of 3.5 or less so we can most definitely expect and other 40+ attempts. Even with Marlon Mack going off last week in a runaway against the Bills, Luck still managed to throw four touchdowns and is averaging 29.7 DraftKings/27.2 FanDuel points per game over his last four. Making this stack even more enticing this week is that T.Y. Hilton should be even closer to 100% health in week 8. He returned to action last week after missing two weeks and while he only managed 25 yards, he caught all four of his targets and also scored two touchdowns. He has 100+ yard receiving upside and is my top player to stack with Luck in week 8. It also makes sense to get Eric Ebron in your Colts stacks as he is tied for second in the entire league in receiving touchdowns with 6 and is sixth among tight ends with 357 receiving yards. The other thing that stands out for Ebron is...

Daily Fantasy College Football Picks and Betting Spotlight (Premium) for DraftKings - Week 9 We’re squarely in the second half of the season and the picture of contenders is becoming more and more clear. We really only have a handful of teams realistically vying for the coveted four playoff spots. There isn’t much happening this week that will impact the current Playoff picture with only two games that have playoff implications. Texas will need to be careful at Oklahoma State and the loser between Georgia and Florida is surely out. Other than that all eyes should be on the Track Meet between 7-0 South Florida and 6-1 Houston. With the highest total on the board at 75, this should be a fun one to watch and one where we will want to have exposure. Quarterback Brock Purdy -Iowa State DK 7000 Opponent Texas Tech Team Total - 29.75 Where did this cat come from? Wholly razzle-dazzle. Purdy wasn't even on the opening two-deep for the Cyclones and suddenly has their offense looking unstoppable. Brock saw the field a total of just one time and attempted zero passes prior to week six in an upset win over Oklahoma State. Brock followed up his gem against the Cowboys with a convincing 30-14 win over the undefeated and playoff hopeful Mountaineers of West Virginia. In just two games Purdy is already the Cyclones second-leading rusher. You heard that right! In his two meaningful appearances, Purdey has rushed for 131 yards and one score to go along with his seven passing touchdowns. His salary is more than forgiving, but there is loads of upside with his dual-threat abilities. Now with a week off to prepare and playing in front of the home crowd?. Cyclones roll. D'Eriq King -Houston DK 10200 Opponent South Florida Team Total - 44.25 King makes for an extremely interesting play Saturday. As the season progress pricing becomes more and more accurate and the punts are further and fewer between. This makes rostering a guy in this salary range difficult. At first glance, I passed right over King as I feel there are multiple players that offer similar or better value price considered. Then you look at the eye-popping total of 75 which is considerably higher than the other games on the slate. South Florida has had all kinds of issues on the defensive side of the ball the past couple weeks and so facing a guy like King is not exactly ideal for the Bulls. King does it all for the Cougars and he should be a major part of scoring on Saturday. His salary will surely create some difficult and risky decisions further down your roster, but in...