Week 9 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/5/20 Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 9. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Titans Opponent CHI Titan -3.5 I know the last two weeks have been rough for the Titans with losses to the Steelers and the, ugh Bengals in Week 8. But let’s look a little closer. The Steelers’ loss came down to a missed Gostkowski field goal at the end of regulation. And the Bengals’ game, played in rough weather conditions saw the Titans intercepted in the end zone on their first drive and another missed FG on their second drive. That game should have been much closer. The Titans have the 4th-ranked offense on the season and are actually the second-best passing attack overall this season. That stands in stark contrast to the Bears who rank 27th on that side of the ball. Deciding who to roll between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky is part of the reason they are struggling and there isn’t a whole lot of hope of getting better. And sure, on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have been excellent this season, ranking 6th in DVOA overall and 5th against the pass. But they are worse against the run and its stands to reason the Titans lean on Derrick Henry in this matchup. Plus, the Bears’ defense has slipped over the last couple of weeks as the offense continues struggling to muster any firepower. The Titans take care of business in this game. Atlanta Falcons Opponent DEN Proj Points Falcons -3.5 The Falcons had been losing in increasingly fantastic fashion over a stretch this season. It was really something how they’d pulled out new and creative ways to take the “L”. But things have (sort of) begun turning around in the last few weeks. They have wins over the Vikings and Panthers with a Todd Gurley accidental TD / loss to Detroit jammed in there. That being said, this team is almost definitely better than their 2-6 record suggests and they are 2-1 under Raheem Morris. Where this comes down to, in some part, is the Falcons are a funnel defense, insanely bad against the pass but actually 8th overall against the run. And Denver would much prefer to run considering they are about league average on the ground and near the bottom of the league through the air. The come-from-behind...

Week 8 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/27/20 Plenty of early NFL betting action to get in on before lines more before Week 8. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Los Angeles Chargers Opponent DENChargers -3 The Chargers didn’t make it always look easy, but they did end up with a 10-point road win over the lowly Jaguars on Sunday. It was their first win since Week 1 and Justin Herbert’s first W since taking over behind center for Tyrod Taylor. The team’s offense has looked more than confident over the last three weeks with close losses to very good Buccaneers and Saints teams in Weeks 5 and 6 respectively. But don’t overlook the defense, while the losses point to a unit looking for an identity, the schedule has been on the tougher side. This defense ranks 12th in defensive DVOA on the season even though the record would seem to point a different direction. This week, they’ll get the Broncos in Denver which has historically been a tough place to travel. But like we said last week with the Chiefs, this Broncos teams’ deficiencies more than offset any downgrade teams get going into the Mile High air of Denver. They got destroyed by the Chiefs last week following two straight wins, but those were over the Jets and the increasingly suspect looking New England Patriots. While the defense has looked competent at times, last week notwithstanding, the offense has been horrific no matter who’s been under center. Sure, it’s been a shaky ride with Lock out of the lineup for some games and the running back situation is hit or miss because of injuries (and otherwise). But this is a team without a ton of hope for improvement on the offensive end. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, I still think there’s room for growth on the Chargers’ end as Herbert becomes increasingly more comfortable. Even heading out on the road, it’s hard to imagine the Denver offense getting much of anything going here.   Tampa Bay BuccaneersOpponent NYGBuccaneers -10.5 We are starting to get to the point of the season where the separation between the haves and have nots becomes increasingly glaring. Such is the case with the Bucs and the Giants. While 10.5 is a huge number to give on the road, it’s worth noting that this season road teams are slightly outscoring home teams so the advantage of...

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/23/20 On Thursday we gave out New York Giants +5 and the under 44.5 both of which hit. Let’s take a look at some other bets to target going into Week 7. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Kansas City ChiefsOpponent DENChiefs -10, -9.5 in some spots I know I wrote up earlier in the season that going into Mile High made it a tough cover for road favorites there. The thin air specifically gives opponents trouble. But those opponents aren’t anything like these Chiefs and other iterations of the Broncos haven’t been quite as bad as this group. Despite a rather odd loss to the Raiders on the road in Week 5, the Chiefs came back and handled business against the Bills in Week 6 on a wet and cool evening in Buffalo. Denver’s been frisky over the last couple of weeks with a surprise win over the Patriots and a rather predictable victory over the Jets. But the Broncos offense is awful, ranking 29th on the season and scoring more than 21 points only once this season (against the Jets). The defense has looked solid (ranked 6th) thanks to an adjusted boost based on their pretty tough schedule to start the season. This is still the high octane Chiefs who’ve won games by nine or more in four of their first six games. And despite the solid defense relatively speaking, Denver allows the sixth-most opponent plays per game this season. This is a cover for the Chiefs.   Houston Texans Opponent GBTexans +4 It was a crime against humanity that Houston didn’t cover the +3.5 we had them at last week against Tennessee. They led by seven with 1:50 to go after the Brandin Cooks touchdown. They then allowed a 76-yard drive from Ryan Tannehill to get the Titans tied and headed to overtime. Then they allowed another 82-yard drive in overtime ending in a Derrick Henry touchdown and that was all she wrote. What a mess. I’m willing to go back to the well here with Houston who’s shown plenty of fight over the last two weeks since firing Bill OBrien. They’ll now face a Green Bay team at home getting points once again. The Packers have been sneaky bad on defense this season, ranking 30th in DVOA and have let it up both on the ground and through the air. They were trounced...

Week 6 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/15/20 Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom. Steelers -7 (W) Jaguars +6 (L) Cowboys - Giants Under 54 (L) Bears +6 (W) Buc - Bears Over 44 (L) Rams - 7.5 (W) Cardinals-Jets Under 47 (W) Week 6 Record 5-3 Season 18-14 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Los Angeles Rams Opponent SF Rams -3 The 49ers’ biggest issue this year is the offense is just incredibly inconsistent through five weeks. Even at full strength in Week 5, they got rolled by the Dolphins 43-17 looking a bit clueless on offense and definitely missing Nick Bosa on defense after he was lost in Week 2 against the Jets. But between the two, the offense is the bigger issue, ranking 24th in DVOA and 25th in passing. There aren’t a ton of paths for the latter to improve. And don’t look now, but the Rams might be really good. They rank 4th in offensive DVOA and are 8th in defensive DVOA. The problem, that could start cropping up for them, is that they’ve been gifted a run through the NFC East playing the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins so far, all wins. Depending on how you slice it, they’ve either had the easiest schedule or no worst than the 4th-easiest. All that being said, they are a much more balanced team, able to lean on the run when needed but still having the passing attack weapons if need be. That, plus the Aaron Donald-led defense ranks third against the pass this season. If there’s an issue with this bet is that they are significantly worse against the run and that’s definitely how the 49ers want to go with things. But the Rams are just the better team here and even as road favorites we can lay the points. Jaguars Opponent DET Jaguars +3.5 Let’s start with the good: the Jaguars’ offense is decent. They rank 10th in offensive DVOA through the first five weeks and were a Stephen Gostkowski 49-yarder from maybe being 2-3 on the season. Sure, the record isn’t great but the expectations were low on this team to begin with. But they have an offense that can definitely move the ball. The issue, of course, is on defense where they rank dead last on the season. But then you have the...

Week 5 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/8/20 Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom. Cowboys -4.5 (L) Bears +2.5 (L) Bears - Colts OVER 43 (L) Raiders +3 (L) Bucs-Chargers Over 43 (W) Vikings +4.5 (W) Vikings +184 (W) Week 5 Record 3-4 Season 13-11 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pittsburgh Steelers Opponent PHI Steelers -7 Let’s summarize the Eagles season so far: - Loss to the awful Redskins - Smoked by the Rams - Tie against the Bengals - Win over the 49ers second (or third) team This hasn’t exactly been an amazing season. In fact, it’s been downright awful. Meanwhile, the Steelers got a surprise bye with the entirety of Tennessee testing positive for Covid in Week 4. So now, the Eagles have to fly back across the country and face a team that’s beyond well-rested. The Eagles’ offense has been about league average this season, but the defense has been atrocious, They rank 31st in offensive DVOA through the first four weeks, which is even more damning considering it’s non-schedule adjusted. They’ve completely stunk, needing a pick-6 against the 49ers to basically get over the scoring hump in Week 4. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense ranks third through their three games and should be able to stymie any semblance of a game plan from the Eagles. The offense is slightly below average and hasn’t exactly played a murderer’s row in the Giants, Broncos, and Texans. But they’ve put up points in each and play at a faster pace. Jacksonville Jaguars Opponent HOU Jaguars +6 Jaguars +228 What exactly have the Texans done to be six point favorites against anyone. Sure, they played a tough schedule through the first three, but then rolled over against the Vikings in Week 4 and then fired their coach. They have Deshaun Watson, but almost nothing else after him on offense after trading away for DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, they still have technically played the toughest strength of schedule to start the season, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other but that gap slimmed after last week’s loss but none of the games were particularly competitive (maybe the Steelers, but not really) and now they deal with the uncertainty around a coaching change. And sure, the Jags aren’t much better from a record perspective, sitting at 1-3 through four weeks with damning losses to the Bengals and Dolphins after...

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/1/20 Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom. Rams - Bills Over 47.5 (W) Ravens -3.5 (L) Ravens - Chiefs Over 53.5 (W) Broncos +6 (L) Texans +4 (L) 49ers - Giants over 42 (W) Overall Week 3 Record 3-3 Season Record 10-7 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Dallas Cowboys Opponent CLE Cowboys -4.5 It’s been a weird start for the Cowboys this season. They lost a barn-burner against a good Ram’s team, pulled out a shootout against the Falcons who give it up to everyone and then lost to Russell Wilson’s brilliance. Yes, they have a slightly negative point differential, but the two losses don’t look all that bad considering the opponent. I do think better things are in store for them going forward and they get a decent matchup against the Browns this week. Meanwhile, the Browns lost to the Ravens in Week 1, but then beat a couple of bottom-feeders in the Bengals and Redskins. So evaluating these two teams on strength of schedule would still have the Cowboys with a slight edge. The Cowboys have played the 4th hardest schedule to start the season with the Browns ranked 24th. And between that, and the public nature of the team, you are paying a little bit of a premium to bet on them this week. But that’s just what we’re going to do. The offense should have very little issue putting up points against a Browns’ defense due for some regression here. And the Cowboys defense has been much better against the run this season compared to the pass which should stymie some of the Browns’ attack. Chicago Bears Opponent IND Bears +2.5 Bears - Colts OVER 43 The Colts are 2-1 though their schedule has been about as easy as it gets with the Jaguars (loss) in Week 1 followed by a stumbling Vikings’ team and the brutal Jets. So sure, 2-1 seems okay but it isn’t like they’ve run the gauntlet. Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row either with wins over the Lions, Giants and Falcons. So while this is a matchup between the number one and number six ranked DVOA defenses so far to start the season, we also know that it isn’t schedule-adjusted yet. All this being said, the Bears made a quarterback...