Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 11
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 11 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback The Chalk - Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Ben Roethlisberger The Pivot Aaron Rodgers FD 9000 DK 7000 Opponent IND Proj Points FD - 17.6 DK - 18.01 I am going to start at the quarterback position this week as I feel there is some terrific leverage here. First of all, I see all three chalk quarterbacks listed above being popular this week, especially Herbert in an elite spot vs. the Jets. This should help push Rodgers ownership down which was already projected lower due to the matchup vs. the Colts who rank 2nd in passing yards per game allowed and 1st in fantasy points allowed to the QB position. I am not worried for multiple reasons starting with the fact the Colts have only played against one team(TEN #2) ranked inside the Top 15 in DVOA passing offense and only four teams ranked inside the Top 20. Three times they have given up 20+ DK points to a QB and they were Stafford(Week 8), Burrow(Week 6), Minshew(Week 1) and Aaron Rodgers is *cough cough* a much better quarterback than all three of those(very tough to get that out being a Vikings fan). For Rodgers, outside of the Tampa game, he has been terrific this season tallying 19+ DK points in every game, scoring 25+ six times, and 29+ four times. He is gifted an elite wideout in Davante Adams and an elite running back in Aaron Jones who is also a top pass-catching back. Finally, I found this very interesting from Zach Kruse on Twitter and it aligns as GB is ranked #3 in pass protection while the Colts pass rush is ranked 15th this season. #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers when kept clean in the pocket in 2020, per @PFF: – 83.7 adjusted completion percentage (5th) – 25 touchdown passes (1st) – 130.0 passer rating (1st) Kept clean on 77.2% of dropbacks (2nd) — Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 20, 2020 I am absolutely...
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 10
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 10 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not always the safest plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs, Deshaun Watson/Brandin Cooks, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams The Pivot Russell Wilson FD 8900 DK 7700 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 22.71 DK - 23.16 DK Metcalf FD 8300 DK 7600 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 16.35 DK - 19.1 Looking at the buzz around the industry, Week 10 brings us a terrific opportunity to jump on board an elite QB/WR stack that could be the lowest owned we have seen them in some time. The projected low ownership comes from a combination of a below-average matchup for the Seahawks pass game and terrific matchups for the four chalk stacks I listed above. While the matchup is tough vs. Rams who rank 10th in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points against both QB and WR, this game has the second-highest total(55.5) on the slate and is primed for a high-scoring game. The Seahawks also own the league's #1 passing offense(298.1 yards per game) Wilson and Metcalf have also been one of the most consistent and highest-upside stacks in the league as they have combined for 40+ DK points in seven of eight games and 50+ in six of eight. I also like the upside when looking at the advanced stats as Wilson is 5th among starting quarterbacks in air yards per attempt and Metcalf is 10th in aDOT(average depth of target) of players with 25+ targets on the season. The results from those opportunities have shown as well as Wilson leads the league in completions of 40+ yards(9) with Metcalf receiving four of those which also leads all wideouts. Both Wilson and Metcalf project to be lower than 10% owned in GPP formats and if that holds as we approach lineup lock, I will be loading up and in search of GPP glory! Running Back The Chalk - Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, Alvin Kamara, Chase Edmonds, James Conner...
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 9
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 9 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - David Johnson, Justin Jackson The Pivot Antonio Gibson FD 6200 DK 5800 Opponent NYG Proj Points FD - 15.03 DK - 16.73 Both Johnson and Jackson have favorable matchups this week and have been getting a ton of buzz. What stands out right away is that Antonio Gibson is projected slightly higher than both in our system yet it appears he could be much lower owned, especially considering he was held in check against the Giants in Week 6. The good news is that he is coming off a huge week in which he carried the ball 20 times for 128 yards and a touchdown. He isn't overly involved in teh passing game but does have five targets in three of his last four games and has now tallied double-digit DK points in five of his last six, topping 20 points twice. The combination of a projected Top 5-10 performance and projected low ownership outside the Top 10 has him as one of my favorite GPP pivots at the running back position. QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen(LAC), Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs(BUF), Russell Wilson/Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf(SEA) The Pivot Kyler Murray FD 8600 DK 7800 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 23.81 DK - 24.58 DeAndre Hopkins FD 8800 DK 8200 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 17.98 DK - 22.05 All three of the chalky stacks I listed above are great options in their own right but I also love the pivot to Murray/Hopkins who are both projected to be under 10% owned in GPP formats. That is great news as they are at or near the top of our projections on both sites. Kyler comes in having put up at least 24 DK/23 FD points in every game with a ceiling of 41 DK/38 FD points. For Hopkins, he has fit in nicely in Arizona and is one of just four players averaging double-digit targets per game and he has made the most of those targets leading the league with 704 receiving...
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 8
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 8 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, Gio Bernard The Pivot Clyde Edwards-Helaire FD 7500 DK 6500 Opponent NYJ Proj Points FD - 15.79 DK - 17.36 After a busy Friday on the injury front, the chalk has pretty much settled on those five running backs above and that leaves some huge holes that we can leverage for GPP formats. For me, that starts with Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is 7th in our raw points projections at the position but expected to be outside the Top 10 and possibly even the Top 15 at the position. While he has seen inconsistent touches the floor has actually been one of the most consistent as he is the only running back to put up 11+ DraftKings points in each of his games thus far. Not only is he the lead rusher but he is also involved in the passing game and has the 6th most targets per game among all running backs. Another reason people may be fading him this week is the addition of Lev Bell who is going to eat a bit into the touch share but I am not overly worried this week. This is because of the elite matchup and potential game script as the Chiefs are HUGE 19 point favorites against the Jets who have allowed the 11th most rushing yard and 8th most fantasy points per game to the RB position. The combination of low ownership, big upside, and most importantly, no weather concerns has me wanting to load up on CEH in GPP formats this week. Wide Receiver The Chalk - Keenan Allen, Brandon Aiyuk The Pivot Cooper Kupp FD 7300 DK 6500 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 13.18 DK - 16.23 I have been on the Cooper Kupp train all season and, to be honest, it has been a little frustrating but here I am going right back to the well....
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 7
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 7 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback With a ton of players already ruled out and a bunch more questionable, there is going to be a lot of chalk this week but one position I like making some pivots to differentiate is teh quarterback position. The Chalk(not in any projected order of own%) - Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert Let's take a look at a couple of projected low-owned options with big upside. Patrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 7400 Opponent DEN Proj Points FD - 22.91 DK - 23.45 Doug talked about the Chiefs in his Top Bets Article and I am going to parlay that in DFS as I absolutely love Mahomes in GPP this week. I listed six quarterbacks above who are all projected to be higher owned this week and the crazy part is Mahomes is only the third-highest priced on DraftKings(highest priced QB on FanDuel). I think a lot of people will go back to Clyde Edwards-Helaire after a breakout game and that makes sense but even with that huge game Mahomes still came just shy of 3x on DraftKings last week. There is snow and low temps in the forecast and likely scares people away but I am not concerned at all as Mahomes faced the Broncos team in the snow last December and put up 340 yards and two touchdowns. It really doesn't feel too risky banking on a former MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP and I love the upside and especially the possible sub 5% ownership. Stack with - Travis Kelce, Tyreke Hill Run it back with - Gardner Minshew II FD 7200 DK 5900 Opponent LAC Proj Points FD - 19.07 DK - 19.7 We can get even more leverage in the mid-tier as Stafford and Herbert should be the overwhelming chalk in this range. While Mahomes gives us a feeling of "safety" when we roster him, the same cannot be said for Minshew...
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 6
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 6 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - Derrick Henry, Alexander Mattison, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor These are just a few of the RB who I am projecting to be chalky and have them ranked in order of preference. I am most confident in King Henry who gets monster volume(26.8 touches per game) and when he doesn't the yardage totals always seems to make up for it with his heavy redzone and goaline usage. Next up is Alexander Mattison who took over for the injured Dalvin Cook last week and was electric totaling 134 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches. He gets a plus matchup in a game with a high total on a team that loves to run the ball. David Mongomery is in a great spot as Carolina has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to running backs but the Bears are underdogs here in a game with a lower total. The other scary part for GPP formats is that through five games, Monty has just three rushes and two receptions inside the redzone. As for Taylor, he has seen over 50% of the Colts snaps and over 50% of the running back touches just twice in five games. He does have upside in a plus game script on a running team but I will be underweight at these prices. The Pivots Todd Gurley II FD 6800 DK 6300 Opponent MIN Proj Points FD - 13.23 DK - 14.24 I have both Gurley and Sanders in the sub 10% range for big tournaments this week and I love the upside for both. Let's start with Gurley who has been low owned almost every week which kind of baffles me, to be honest. I get he is not getting the targets which really takes away the PPR value but he has more than made up for it with his opportunity in the redzone sitting third overall with 24 rushing attempts, converting on four of...