DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/20/22(Main Slate)
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/20/22(Main Slate) Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Joe Musgrove FD 10500 DK 10100 Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH FD - 47.98 DK - 25.98 The pitching landscape isn't great on the main slate today as the top guys have had their struggles in the second half but the good news is that they get plus matchups. Let's start with Joe Musgrove who hasn't been nearly as bad as the 4.97 ERA in the second half as the xFIP(3.71) is running over a run better and the BABIP(.321) and HR/FB rate has also spiked above the norm. I am not worried at all, especially in a matchup against the Nats who are a bottom-five offence since trading Juan Soto and have also seen their K rate jump about 3-4 % as well. Musgrove is my top pitcher on this slate. Logan Gilbert FD 9800 DK 8000 Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAK FD - 37.44 DK - 20.66 Gilbert's numbers(6.59 ERA) may look ugly in the second half but considering 13 of the 20 earned runs over five starts came against the Yankees, I am not too concerned. He looked much better in the other three starts going six innings in each, posting a 3.50 ERA and tallying 19 strikeouts(26% K rate). What really stands out is the matchup as he faces the A's who were playing above their heads to start the second half but have come back down to Earth scoring just 2.8 runs per game over their last 17 games. Better yet, they have struggled even more against righties ranking second to last in wOBA(.274) and wRC+(80) in the split. Fire up Gilbert in all formats. Catcher/First Base Paul Goldschmidt FD 4800 DK 6000 Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI FD - 13.32 DK - 10.09 If there is one player we want to be paying up for on this slate it's Paul Goldschmidt. He is the odds-on-favourite to win the MVP leading the NL in average, wOBA, wRC+, is third in home runs and second in RBI. He has been incredibly consistent all season and has always hit lefties well but this season he has been on another level hitting .429 with an insane .561 wOBA, 272 wRC+, and .405 ISO. Now he faces a struggling lefty in Madison Bumgarner who has given up four or more runs in five of his last six starts(6.19 ERA)...
Aces and Coors Highlight DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/19/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/19/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane McClanahan FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - TBFD - 46.69 DK - 25.96 McClanahan is in the Cy Young running right now and it’s for good reason. He’s having one of the best seasons around, rocking a 2.28 ERA and 2.29 xFIP with 11.05 Ks per nine and a 6.2 K:BB ratio. He’s a -211 home favorite against the Royals who aren’t going to offer much resistance here. It’s basically a two-man cash discussion for guys taking the mound and McClanahan is one of the very best doing it right now. Blake Snell FD - P 10500 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - SDFD - 46.68 DK - 25.74 And then there’s Snell who doesn’t have the peripherals like McClanahan but has plenty going for him here on Friday. He’s easily the biggest win odds guy seeing as how he’s a whopping -370 home favorite against the Nationals. That really makes a difference on FanDuel where the win counts for more and it’s a close call between him and McClanahan here. On DraftKings, I think you just play them together and Snell coming at under $10K helps. Catcher/First Base Brandon Belt FD 3100 DK 2800 Opponent - COL (José Ureña) Park - COLFD - 15.9 DK - 11.84 We’ve got a game in Coors and the Giants have a whopping 6.7 implied run line on the day facing off against Jose Urena. That run line is about two runs more than just about every team on the slate and for many, it’s three runs more. We are going to want as many of these guys as possible and the prices aren’t terrible either. Belt is having a bad season though he still walks 13% of the time and the BABIP is about 70 points lower than his career average. He’s coming too cheap on DK if he’s hitting fifth (or higher) in the lineup. C.J. Cron FD 4100 DK 5000 Opponent - SF (Alex Wood) Park - SFFD - 13.52 DK - 10.16 Though we will mostly focus on the Giants in this article, it’s worth noting that the Rockies have the second-best run line on the day facing off against Alex Wood. Cron has slowed down on the season with the OPS just about .800 now, but he still has 23 home runs and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/18/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/18/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Zac Gallen FD 10100 DK 8500 Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF FD - 31.52 DK - 16.7 It is hard to get behind Heaney on this slate, even with the win equity, as he hasn't made it through five innings in four straight starts. Instead, I will save some money and roll with Zac Gallen who has been very consistent lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts(1.41 ERA/3.09 xFIP) including twice against today's opponent, the Giants. For fantasy, he has provided a 2x floor(on DK) in each of those starts and flashed big-time upside with 30+ DK points(3.5x at these prices) in three of those starts. All things considered, Gallen is my top pitcher on the early slate. Main Jacob deGrom FD 12000 DK 10300 Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL FD - 35.2 DK - 20.46 He still hasn't exceeded 76 pitches in any of his three starts but has still looked absolutely dominant allowing just six hits in 16.2 innings while striking out 28 of 56 batters he has faced. I would have to check but I don't remember any pitcher striking out 50% of batters he has faced over a three-start stretch and it is backed up by an insane 24.6% swinging strike rate. Since last facing deGrom, the Braves have been on a tear but I am not concerned with the fantasy floor here at all and there is still so much more upside should he finally get close to a full workload. Fire up deGrom in all formats. Also Consider Yu Darvish(SDP) who is a massive favourite(-380) against a Nats team that has seen their K rate spike since trading Juan Soto Catcher/First Base Early Paul Goldschmidt FD 4700 DK 5800 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL FD - 11.23 DK - 8.51 This early slate has a very similar feel as the main slate last night and at least for the Cards, that is a good thing. They have a terrific balance of elite, top-priced plays and value at the top of the order which makes a partial or full-stack extremely viable. Goldy is right near the top of our projections and while the price is peaking on FanDuel, he still remains under $6K on DraftKings despite staying red-hot with hits in six of his last seven...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/16/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/16/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Robbie Ray FD 10300 DK 9500 Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAAFD - 39.87 DK - 21.83 Ray hasn’t put up quite the same strikeout numbers as he did before coming to Seattle, but the season has been fine enough on its own this time around. He’s still going close to six innings per start, has a 28% K% and hasn’t let the walks get too out of control. On Tuesday he gets the Angels as a -173 road favorite. LAA is only sitting at a 3.3 implied run line, one of the lowest on the slate and this lineup is pretty garbage outside of Ohtani. José Quintana FD 8400 DK 7800 Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COLFD - 37.22 DK - 19.12 There are a lot of good pitchers going on this slate so I can see the temptation in spending all the way up for an arm. But Quintana is in such a good spot at a cheaper price that I think you can go there in cash games. The Rockies are significantly worse away from home and come into this game with only a 3.0 implied run line. Quintana has some of the best win odds on the day at -240 and the matchup is just tough to pass up with the price. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 3900 DK 5900 Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - BALFD - 14.38 DK - 10.83 Alejandro Kirk FD 2800 DK 4500 Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - BALFD - 12.86 DK - 9.76 The Blue Jays have the highest implied team run line on the slate and we are going to want to get these bats into lineups wherever possible. Facing off against Kremer has them in a good place seeing as how he has never really dialed up the strikeouts on the major league level. Vlad isn’t having the same kind of season he saw last year, but has still been excellent with 24 home runs, just a 16.7 K rate and an .858 OPS. He is expensive, but worth it in this matchup. And then there’s Kirk who’s seen the OPS drop off some but is still slated to hit third in this lineup which looks really good, especially at his FanDuel price. He’s put the ball in play about 80% of the time this season and is walking and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/15/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/15/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10100 Opponent - TB (Undecided) Park - NYY FD - 45.9 DK - 26.22 Cole got back to his dominant self in his last start against the Mariners holding them to four hits over seven innings while striking out eight and walking none. Oddly enough the price has come down to almost a season-low, at least on DraftKings, while entering the night as one of the biggest favourites on the board. He faces a Rays team that he has absolutely dominated all season holding them to just eight hits and two earned runs over three starts while striking out 29 batters(40%). Cole leads all pitchers in our projections and is an elite play in all formats. Joe Ryan FD - P 9000 DK - SP 7300 Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - MIN FD - 34.7 DK - 18.66 There is a path to paying up for both pitchers on this slate but I am jumping on the value train to get a huge upgrade in my bats and Joe Ryan leads the way. While he has gotten roughed up in two of his last three starts, I am not worried for several reasons starting with the fact those came against red-hot teams in the Padres and Dodgers. Those two starts also came on the road and Ryan has some very glaring home/road splits this season and has been elite at home with a 2.92 ERA(5.05 ERA on the road). Tonight he faces a Royals team that has been better in the second half in terms of wOBA and wRC+ but have also seen their K rate(23.3%) go up. All things considered, Ryan is my top SP2 on this slate. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - BAL (Kyle Bradish) Park - TOR FD - 14.83 DK - 11.17 Vladdy's hit streak came to an end at 22 games on Sunday and while the power somewhat lacked(3 HR), he posted an elite .374/.424/.582 slash line during that time. This and the smaller slate explain the high price tag tonight but with Alonso and Freeman in much tougher matchups, Vladdy is easily the top pay-up option. He and the Jays also get a plus matchup against Kyle Bradish who has posted a 6.42 ERA over 13 starts and has given up at least...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/13/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/13/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD 10800 DK 10600 Opponent - PHI (Aaron Nola) Park - PHI FD - 44.99 DK - 26.15 Despite a strict pitch count in his first two starts of the season, deGrom has looked as dominant as ever striking out 18 of 36 batters he has faced. Read that again! With around a 25% increase in that pitch count from start one to two he likely gets up around a full workload on Saturday so these prices definitely feel like a buy-low. The matchup on paper may not look great but the Phillies are already without Bryce Harper and are likely still without NL home run leader, Kyle Schwarber. Fire up deGrom in all formats. Lucas Giolito FD 8500 DK 7500 Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - DET FD - 38.08 DK - 20.18 To say 2022 has been a roller coaster ride for Giolito would be a massive understatement but it has helped keep the price in check which is great news considering he gets the best matchup on the board tonight. He faces a Tigers' team that ranks dead last on the season and has been even worse in the second half with an ugly .261 wOBA, 67 wRC+, and 27% K rate. For Giolito, the walks have been the biggest issue but he has battled through them lately winning two straight while posting 18+ DK points in each. All things considered, he is my top SP2 on this slate. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD 3900 DK 5400 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC FD - 15.15 DK - 11.42 The Dodgers are scorching hot right now winning 11 straight games and have scored seven or more runs in eight of those and we are going to continue to ride that high on Saturday. It starts with MVP hopeful Freddie Freeman who checks all the boxes starting with a price that is somehow sitting in the mid $5K range on DraftKings and sub $4K range on FanDuel. It's not like he has cooled off hitting .338 in the second half with a .391 wOBA/155 wRC+ and now faces a pitcher in Brad Keller who has recorded a 6.65 ERA/5.22 xFIP in the second half and has given up home runs at almost double the rate to lefties. All things considered, Freeman is our top play at first and one of our top overall...