DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/4/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/4/20 Baseball has been crazy this whole season and it doesn't seem to be getting any saner. Let's take a look at some plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Andrew Heaney FD - P 7300 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - SEAFD - 35.53 DK - 19.47 The good news first: Heaney has been nails to start this season, striking out 12 batters in 9 2/3 innings while only walking one total. He’s rocking an early 2.70 xFIP and just dominated these same Mariners in his last start, cruising through five innings. The problem is that the pitch counts have eclipsed 70 in either game and there’s little margin for error at these prices with that kind of leash. Not going all that deep in games has kept the prices low on both sites, and I do think they work to stretch him out going forward. So while the per inning numbers are about as good as it gets through two starts, there’s concern about length here. Brandon Woodruff FD - P 9200 DK - SP 8300 Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - MILFD - 36.45 DK - 19.67 This young White Sox lineup has a lot of prospects in it and has one of the better team wOBAs to start the season. That doesn’t make for all that appealing a cash game opponent, but pitching is rather thin on this slate and we won’t mind spending up again at Coors. As a full-time starter in 2019 Woodruff had a breakout season, striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine and rocking a 3.36 xFIP. He’s continued things this season K-ing 15 batters in his first 11 innings while issuing only two walks. This is pretty much an even-money pick’em so Woodruff doesn’t get much in the way of win expectation, but his K numbers are as good as anyone going here. Dustin May (FD $5900 DK $7500) is still coming cheap but I’m not sure the pitch count gets all the way there. Catcher/First Base Daniel Murphy FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4500 Opponent - SF (Kevin Gausman) Park - COLFD - 13.84 DK - 10.58 Ok, buckle up everyone because you’re about to get another healthy dose of Coors plays. Look, I know there isn’t a lot of nuance here, but when you have a game with a 12.5 over/under, three runs...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/3/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/3/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 11000 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - PHI (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL FD - 39.05 DK - 22.32 It hasn't exactly been a dominating start to the season for Cole but he has won both of his starts and three of the four earned runs he has given up came on two home runs. Overall, he limited the Nationals and Orioles to just five hits across 11.2 innings with 12 strikeouts(28%) and just three walks. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Phillies who have not played since their opening series with the Marlins. The price still has room to go up and given the other elite arms on this slate have much tougher matchups, Cole is easily my top play on this slate in all formats. Alec Mills FD - P 7000 DK - RP 8000 Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - CHC FD - 27.11 DK - 13.9 The Cubs open up as -150 favorites on Monday at home to a Royals team that has struggled losing three straight and five of their last six scoring just 3.5 runs per game. Mills came up in the Royals system and joined the Cubs in 2017 and it appears he is finally getting a shot in the rotation. He was decent in his first start going six innings, giving up just two hits and two earn earned runs. He only went 77 pitches so I fully expect that leash the be extended to at least 85 tonight which is more than enough for him to hit value. He is in play in all formats. Catcher/First Base José Abreu FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - MIL (Adrian Houser) Park - MIL FD - 10.23 DK - 7.77 The line is not out yet on this game at the tie of writing this but I would suspect the red-hit White Sox are favorites here. Either way, they are near the top of my list for teams to targets, especially from a PTS/$ perspective with the very expensive Yankees ad Rockies bats tonight. The Sox have won four straight scoring 27 runs and Abreu hits right in the middle of the lineup between some up and coming superstars. At these prices, he is a top target at first base in all formats. Willson Contreras FD - C 3300 DK - C 4500...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/30/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/30/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Dinelson Lamet FD - P 9200 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - SF (Undecided) Park - SF FD - 38.05 DK - 21.07 After a night full of aces on the mound, we get a much weaker player pool at the position tonight but short of some high floor/high upside options. The first name that stands out is Dinelson Lamet who currently tops the raw points projections and is coming off a tremendous start vs. the D-Backs where he allowed just five and one earned run while striking out eight and walking just one. This wasn't just a one-off upside game either as he posted a 33.6% K rate last season over 14 starts. With a combination of a price under 10K on both sites and a matchup vs. the Giants bottom five offense has him as my top pitcher on Thursday in all formats. Ross Stripling FD - P 8400 DK - RP 8400 Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - ARI FD - 32.24 DK - 17.13 Next up we have Ross Stripling who, like Lamet, had a great start to the season giving up just four hits and one earned run while striking out seven and walking just one. He came in super cheap in that start and crushed value with 29 DK/49 FD points and that is about what we are looking for tonight against a D-Backs team that has only scored 13 runs over their first six games going into last night. Stripling and Lamet are my top pitchers and paired on DraftKings, still gives you an average of over $4K per hitter to fill out your lineup. Catcher/First Base Pete Alonso FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5100 Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - NYM FD - 13.45 DK - 10.02 The Polar Bear made my article last night and is currently 3 for 3 and while the price went up $100 on both sites, he is once again one of my top PTS/$ bats when paying up at any position. Tonight he faces a weak lefty in Martin Perez who has been pretty terrible throughout his career and got blown up in his first start allowing five runs(4 earned) on six hits while striking out just two batters. Alonso is in play on both sites but his best value comes on DraftKings where he is the 13th most expensive bat on...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/29/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/29/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers After a night where you could almost throw a dart to pick the best of the worst, we get an elite slate for pitching so let's jump in a look at few that stand out in the system. Gerrit Cole FD - P 11700 DK - 11400 Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BALFD - 42.44 DK - 24.4 Cole is coming off an incredible season in 2019 and pretty much picked up where he left off in his first start with the Yankees on Friday. We went five innings allowing just a solo home run to Adam Eaton while striking out five and walking one. He was also limited to just 75 pitches and should get a full run tonight against an Orioles team that has seen their games against the Marlins postponed over the last two days and were a bottom 10 offense(.308 wOBA, 88 wRC+, 23% K rate) overall last season. Cole is an elite pitcher who we have seen more expensive in worse spots so he is easily the top pitcher for me on the main slate. Chris Paddack FD - P 9700 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - SF (Johnny Cueto) Park - SF FD - 38.78 DK - 21.16 Up next is Chris Paddack who was excellent in his rookie season(3.33 ERA, 26.9% K rate, .268 wOBA against) and like Cole, has picked up where he left off in his first start. He didn't flash the upside with just four punch-outs but was incredibly efficient allowing just four walks and walking just one over six innings on just 81 pitches. Tonight, he gets a Giants team that finished last season bottom 3 in almost every offensive category and are now without Buster Posey who opted out which has resulted in another bottom 5 offensive start to the season. At these prices, Paddack is the likely pitcher in both FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer lineups on Wednesday. A great play in all formats. Catcher/First Base Pete Alonso FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - BOS (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - NYM FD - 12.91 DK - 9.61 The 2019 NL Rookie of the Year is off to a bit of a slow start but I am not concerned.......yet. It can be expected for some players to push the envelope early in a shortened season and that appears to be the case for Alonso...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/28/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/28/20 On Monday, things got real weird real fast with the Marlins spiking cases of Covid-19 and having to cancel their game against the Orioles. They've already canceled Tuesday's game as well. But the season pushes on (hopefully) though Tuesday has some issues from a DFS perspective. The pitching situation is suspect at best, a disaster at worst. Let's take a look at some of the plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Walker Buehler FD - P 10500 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - HOU (Framber Valdez) Park - HOUFD - 31.84 DK - 17.4 Just a heads up that Tuesday is one of the worst pitching slates you’ll see in DFS and the season isn’t even a week old. But this is the part of the the rotation for some teams that comes just before turning back over to the aces. Buehler is, by far, the most talented arm on this slate and it isn’t particularly close. The issue is he draws one of, if not the, toughest matchup against the Astros. He’s a -150 road favorite in Houston with a 9 over/under which is about the lowest for Tuesday’s games. Buehler was magnificent in 2019, striking out 10.63 batters per nine, walking fewer than two and finishing with a 3.37 xFIP. He’s justifiably expensive on both sites and because of that and the matchup you may decide the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. But Buehler has to be at the top of any list for Tuesday because of the talent gap behind him. Patrick Sandoval FD - P 5600 DK - SP 6600 Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - LAAFD - 30.22 DK - 15.54 See how ugly things got and how quickly? Sandoval does have some things going for him on Tuesday though. He’s the slate’s best money line favorite at -170 at home against the Mariners. Seattle is mostly a young, inexperienced and bad lineup putting up two or fewer runs in three of the first four games this season. In nine starts in 2019 Sandoval struck out more than 9.5 batters per nine and his 4.02 xFIP was a run better than the 5.03 ERA mostly because he appeared to run very bad on the HR/Fb rate. He’s coming incredibly cheap on both sites on a day on which you’ll most definitely want to stack some expensive bats. Look, starting pitching on this slate is a moderate disaster....
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/27/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/27/20 It has been an eventful first couple of days since baseball returned with many new variables in play as the Marlins showed us yesterday with multiple positive cases of COVID-19. We now enter the first full week of action and I am excited to bring you my core plays at each position for DraftKings and FanDuel for the main slate. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers I preface the write-ups in this section with the fact this is an absolutely terrible slate for pitchers. Good or bad, we must roster one(two on DraftKings) so let's jump into the pit of fire and see what we can come up with tonight. Mike Foltynewicz FD - P 8000 DK - SP 10300 Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - TB FD - 31 DK - 16.02 Tyler Glasnow FD - P 9700 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TB FD - 35.52 DK - 19.51 I will start at the top with a pitcher who is a bit overpriced to what we have seen recently but it is completely relative to the slate and lack of options. Folty wasn't great last year posting a 4.54 ERA/4.73 xFIP but did have a 21%+ K rate and 10.5% swinging strike rate but what stands out the most is the matchup. The Rays were relatively held in check against a Jays staff that is average at best and ended up with 23 K's over the three games. The Trop is one of the best pitchers parks in the league and while the Braves are slight underdogs(+125) here, Folty is my top pitcher if you plan on paying up tonight. On the other side, we have Tyler Glasnow at a much more affordable price and is actually the favorite in this matchup. He only got 12 starts in his first full year with the Rays due to a forearm strain that had him on the IL from the end of May to the start of September. Despite the small sample size, he was tremendous posting a 1.78 ERA backed up by an elite 2.94 xFIP and 33% K rate. I am writing this before game 3 of the Braves series with the Mets but their bats were not great through the first two games scoring just six runs42 wRC+) and striking out at a ridiculous 38% rate. At this time, I lean Glasnow in cash games and...