DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/27/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/27/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu FD 9100 DK 9700 Opponent - BOS (Chris Mazza) Park - BOS FD - 30.15 DK - 15.64 With Scherzer being more expensive on both sites while also struggling recently(9 ER last two starts) makes the decision at the top quite easy tonight, at least for cash games. Since struggling in his first two starts with his new team, Ryu has returned to his elite form allowing just 10 hits and three earned runs over his last four starts with a 24:5 strikeout to walk ratio. The jays are -170 favorites in this one against a Red Sox team that is below-average in almost every offensive stat. At a price under $10K on both sites, Ryu is my top pitcher on the main slate. Sixto Sánchez FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent - NYM (Robert Gsellman) Park - NYM FD - 24.7 DK - 12.06 If you are not paying up for both Scherzer and Ryu on DraftKings, things get a little muddy but one punt I am into is Sixto Sanchez. He made his major league debut last Saturday against the defending champs and only need 66 pitches to get through five innings. While he did allow six hits and three earned runs, he didn't walk a batter and struck out four tallying 13.2 DK points. I see him getting upwards of 70+ pitches tonight and while a tough matchup vs. the Mets, he is only $5,100 making a 2x floor very attainable and also giving him some nice upside as well if things go right. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 3200 DK 4300 Opponent - BOS (Chris Mazza) Park - BOS FD - 12.92 DK - 9.83 After a slow start to the season, Vlad is starting to heat up as he enters Thursday night with a nine-game hitting streak. The Jays are big favorites(-170), currently lead all teams in implied runs, hit in a great hitters park in Buffalo, and Vlad is still priced down a bit even on a small slate. All things considered, he is in play in all formats tonight. Matt Olson FD 3500 DK 5300 Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEX FD - 12.18 DK - 9.07 Olson is more expensive tonight and consistency isn't a word we throw around with him but the run production(10 HR, 22 RBI) cannot be ignored, especially in this matchup. The A's...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/26/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/26/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD - P 10700 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - NYM FD - 41.16 DK - 23.23 We get two elite ace pitchers to choose from tonight and deGrom is getting the nod as my #1. Both pitchers have been terrific to start the year and have very similar stats in all areas(ERA, xFIP, K rate, WHIP) so let's turn to the matchup as this is where the big difference is for me tonight. Kershaw faces a Giants team that has not only been red-hot lately(147 wR+ last 7 days) but have the 6th lowest team K rate(21.3%) on the season. On the flip side, deGrom faces a Marlins lineup that has struck out 24.8% of the time(7th most) to start the season and is below average in almost every offensive stat. With a price that has reached a season-low combined with an elite matchup, deGrom is easily my top pitcher in all formats tonight. Dinelson Lamet FD - P 9300 DK - SP 8600 Opponent - SEA (Taijuan Walker) Park - SD FD - 33.05 DK - 18.39 Lamet has been on our radar all season and has been one of the most consistent PTS/$ arms in all of fantasy baseball. He has gone at least five innings all six starts and has only allowed more than one earned run once(two last start) this season, good for an elite 1.89 ERA. I do not expect this level of production to continue as he is running a very unsustainable .203 BABIP and 3.74 xFIP but in no way am I expecting a huge falloff and especially not tonight vs. the Mariners who have struggled a ton over the last couple weeks posting a .290 wOBA, 85 wRC+, and 25% K rate. Lamet is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and is in play in all formats over on FanDuel allowing you some upgraded bats. Catcher/First Base Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 5300 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - DET FD - 13.95 DK - 10.46 While the Cubs are right up there once again in terms of implied runs, they are very hard to trust in cash games as they have wildly inconsistent. With that said, I am going back to Rizzo on FanDuel where the price is much more reasonable in relation to his performance to start...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/24/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/24/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers I will preface the pitcher write-up by saying that I love the PTS/$ value with Flaherty tonight but he was limited to just 41 pitches in his first start back from the Cardinals COVID break and the expectation is he will be eased back in for two or three more starts. If that news changes on Monday, he will most definitely be the top pitcher in our optimized lineups. Trevor Bauer FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - MIL FD - 39.89 DK - 21.78 If Flaherty is limited again on Monday, I love going to Bauer as my top pitcher and the system agrees as he currently sits atop the raw points projections. He and the Reds are only -130 favorites, mostly due to being on the road, but get a plus matchup vs. a Brewers team that ranks bottom five in team wOBA(.292), wRC+(81), and strikeout rate(25.7%) on the season. For Bauer, it has been a huge bounce-back after he struggled at the end of the season(6.45 ERA) after being traded to the Reds. He has been dominant in 2020 allowing just eight hits over his first four starts with just two earned runs(.68 ERA) and while he is due for some regression(obviously) the xFIP is also sitting at an elite 2.60 on the season. On top of that, he has provided an insane amount of K upside(43.6%, 13.2% swinging-strike rate). All things considered, he is a great option in all formats. Casey Mize FD - P 6800 DK - SP 6200 Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - DET FD - 27.08 DK - 12.83 The 2018 first overall pick looked very good in his major league debut last Wednesday despite giving up three earned runs, two of which forced his exit in the fifth inning. He was rolling up to that point striking out seven and walking none and still ended up hitting 2x value on DraftKings. The good news tonight is that his price went down on DraftKings and he faces the other Chicago team who has been just league-average in almost all offensive categories and sit with the league's 2nd-worst strikeout rate(27.4%). With a price sitting below $7K on DraftKings, he is my favorite Sp2 in all formats and an excellent GPP option on FanDuel allowing you to load up on bats. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/20/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/20/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane Bieber FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10600 Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PIT FD - 42.91 DK - 23.41 We have been gifted some excellent slates in terms of starting pitching and that continues tonight. With a price tag just $400 more than Kershaw on DraftKings, Shane Bieber is where I will be starting my builds. He continues to develop into an ace and is having an elite start to the season allowing just five earned runs(1.30 ERA/1.65 xFIP) over five starts, winning four of them. It doesn't stop there as he has struck out at least eight in every start and comes into tonight with an insane 43% K rate and 19.8% swinging-strike rate. The matchup couldn't get much better either as he faces a Pirates team that has a 53 wRC+ and 25% K rate against right-handed pitching on the season. You might be better off taking the saving with Kershaw on FanDuel but on DraftKings Bieber is my top pitcher in all formats. Alex Young FD - P 5800 DK - SP 6700 Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK FD - 25.54 DK - 12.99 The system absolutely loved the double pay-up at pitcher on DK last night and I suspect it will again as the total cost is cheaper tonight. If that is the route you want to go, both Kershaw and Sonny Gray are terrific options but if you want more bats, I have a value play for you. Alex Young got his first start on Saturday limiting the red-hot Padres to four hits and one earned run and while he only went 4.1 innings on 63 pitches, he still put up 14.8 DK points, over 2x at these prices. The D-backs are underdogs(+139) tonight but Oakland is a good pitcher's park and he faces an A's team that strikes out 29% of the time vs. left-handed pitching and 26% of the time overall. I suspect the pitch count will be up to about 75-80 and if he can tally some K's even a few earned runs against will still allow him to hit value, at least for cash games. Catcher/First Base Mitch Moreland FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4800 Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL FD - 11.28 DK - 8.46 The Red Sox are in a plus spot tonight and currently sit...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/19/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/19/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD - P 10700 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - MIA (Pablo López) Park - MIA FD - 36.98 DK - 20.87 We have a tough decision to make tonight with two elite aces on the bump and for cash, it is deGrom who gets the edge for me tonight. It is very close but the consistency is what stands out as deGrom has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start and since seeing his pitch count extended over 90 pitches he has won twice with a 16:3 strikeout to walk ratio. He also gets the better matchup as the depleted marlins roster sits with a 88 wRC+ and 26% K rate over the last 14 days. All things considered, DeGrom is the top pitcher on this slate and in play in all formats. Pablo López FD - P 8300 DK - SP 7200 Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - MIA FD - 25 DK - 12.68 Whether you are rolling with deGrom or Cole tonight, you are going to have to pair him with a value SP2 to get any bats in your lineup on Draftkings and Lopez stands out above the rest. The Marlins rotation is currently Top 10 in ERA and Lopez has played a huge role winning two of his three starts while allowing just four earned runs over 16 innings(2.25 ERA) and that is backed up by an elite 2.73 xFIP. On top of that, he is also missing a ton of bats with a 17% swinging strike rate which has led to 28% K rate. The only concern is the matchup against a hot Mets team but at his price tag, I am willing to take the risk at SP2 on DraftKings even if it means two pitchers from one game. Catcher/First Base Travis d'Arnaud FD - C 3200 DK - C 3200 Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - ATL FD - 11.7 DK - 8.87 Tyler Flowers FD - C 2700 DK - C 3600 Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - ATL FD - 8.92 DK - 6.73 Outside of the game at Coors, the Braves/Nats has the highest total at the moment and whichever catcher is behind the plate is a great value. We have discussed D'Arnaud who, after running in the mid $4K range for a couple of weeks, dropped big-time on...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/18/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/18/20 We've got a packed MLB slate for Tuesday. Let's take a look at DraftKings and FanDuel baseball plays. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Yu Darvish FD - P 9900 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - STL (Daniel Ponce de Leon) Park - CHCFD - 40.94 DK - 22.49 Darvish has been fantastic to start the season, following up on his excellent second half in 2019. This season he’s striking batters out at a 10.13 per nine rate which is down some for his career. But where he’s really winning is limiting the walks. For his career, he’s walked more than three batters per nine. This season, through the first four starts, that number is down to 1.50. It’s helped him to a 1.88 ERA which is lower than the 3.10 xFIP, but both are fantastic. He’s a -180 home favorite against the Cardinals and we are just waiting on the wind direction in Wrigley on Tuesday. Carlos Carrasco FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9900 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PITFD - 36.42 DK - 19.7 Carrasco reeled off four straight six inning games to start the season but ran into some control issues against the Cubs in his last start, walking five. Overall, he’s been very good striking out more than 12 batters per nine though the walk rate definitely looks weird because of the last start. On Tuesday he enters as a -190 favorite over the Pirates who’ve struggled to start the season and have very little firepower in the lineup. I prefer Darvish, but Carrasco makes a case to go double expensive on DraftKings. Trevor Bauer (FD $12000 DK $10800) has been amazing this season for sure. He almost certainly won’t keep up this K rate, but he’s also putting it all together this year and is completely elite. He’s expensive and I think the two guys above are better values, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Dylan Bundy FD - DK - SP 9100 Opponent - SF (Trevor Cahill) Park - LAAFD - 0 DK - 18.66 I know he’s Early-Only but I just wanted to make note of Bundy here. Bundy’s been the surprise arm to start 2020, near the top of starting pitcher WAR thanks to just dominating on the mound. He’s averaging more than seven innings per start, striking out close to 11 batters per nine, walking fewer than one per nine and...