DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/8/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/8/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Walker Buehler FD - P 10400 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARIFD - 36.68 DK - 20.18 Buehler has allowed only one earned run in his last 11 innings, striking out 17 batters and walking only one in that time period. He’s once again looking like the ace after struggling a bit out of the gate to start the season. The walks, for the season, are a bit up over last season but he’s still striking out more than 10 batters per nine. The Diamondbacks have the third-worst team wOBA in the league this season though they don’t strike out a ton. It matters little though with Buehler a big favorite against a light-hitting team. He is the top projected cash game pitcher on the main slate and for good reason. Mike Clevinger FD - P 9600 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - SDFD - 39.91 DK - 21.88 It hasn’t exactly been a banner year for Clevinger who was persona non grata in Cleveland after breaking team quarantine rules and then getting shipped to San Diego at the trade deadline. Though one could say at least he landed on a true contender. But the pitching has been bad in his 28 innings, striking out fewer than seven batters per nine and walking 3.77/9. And don’t get totally fooled by the 3.14 ERA, the 4.87 xFIP is more than 1.5 runs higher. But he’s a big-time -225 home favorite against the Rockies who have a grizzly .288 wOBA when they play outside of Coors. Looking for a bounce back game for Clevinger here matched up against a weaker opponent. Logan Webb (FD $6700 DK $7700) is an interesting choice against a very weak Seattle team. His peripherals are fine enough and the price is right. Catcher/First Base Carlos Santana FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 3600 Opponent - KC (Jakob Junis) Park - CLEFD - 12.39 DK - 9.21 Santana remains one of the most patient hitters in the league with a 20% walk percentage this season, up from 16% over the last two years. He walks more than he strikes out, which is extremely rare for hitters these days. The issue this season has been any semblance of power, hitting only four home runs through his first 174 plate appearances. The hard contact % is about...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/20 Happy Labor(Labour for you Canadians) Day everyone. We have a full day of action today with a small three-game slate, a six-game main slate, and two games in between. I will be concentrating on the main slate, for the most part, but try and mix in some picks throughout the day. As always, head over and check out the projections/lineup optimizer and then hit us up in chat with any questions. Let's get started. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Ian Anderson FD - P 10400 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - ATL FD - 31.57 DK - 15.54 Anderson has put his transitional troubles from AA to AAA in the rearview in 2020 as the Braves 2016 1st round pick has been tremendous to start his career in the big leagues. He has gone six innings and picked up the win in both starts striking out 14 and walking just three and making this even better is the fact he faces the Red Sox and Yankees lineups. He now gets a much better matchup against the Marlins who have posted an ugly .291 wOBA, 83 wRC+, and 26.6% K rate over the past 14 days. I will have exposure to Anderson in all formats on Monday. Zach Plesac FD - P 10300 DK - RP 7600 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - CLE FD - 36.18 DK - 18.57 The Indians made it abundantly clear that there is no room for breaking protocol in Cleveland. Plesac and Clevinger did this by leaving their hotel in early August and were promptly suspended and sent down to the "alternate site". Clevinger was then traded to the Padres for prospects while Plesac now has to sit in his own mess and earn his team's trust back. It was a great first step as he was dominant last Tuesday upon his return to the club allowing just four hits over six innings with six strikeouts. He now gets to face that same Royals team who have posted a .292 wOBA, 80 wRC+, and 22.5% K rate over the last 14 days. Plesac is a top pitcher on Monday and safe in all formats. Catcher/First Base Miguel Sanó FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - MIN FD - 13.58 DK - 10.04 Small slates are always tough and despite the Twins struggles as a team lately,...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/3/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/3/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Lance McCullers Jr.Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 8900 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - TEX (Lance Lynn) Park - HOU FD - 36 DK - 19.19 I much prefer how FanDuel handled the slates today splitting the games down the middle and on the early slate Lance McCullers is the top arm I am targeting. The ERA(5.06) would suggest he is having a terrible start but the xFIP(3.99) sits over a run lower and he is coming off a terrific start going six innings while holding the A's to one earned run while striking seven. He and the Astros are -155 favorites in a plus matchup against the Rangers who rank bottom 3 in almost all offensive categories. Fire up McCullers in all formats. **Update - There are conflicting reports and it very well could be Zack Greinke starting for the Astros and if that is the case, he becomes my top pitcher on the early slate.** Main Dylan Cease FD - P 8900 DK - SP 9500 Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC FD - 30.16 DK - 15.67 While going both Cease and Kershaw together on DraftKings is most likely the optimal play, I lean Cease simply because I am playing more fanDuel tonight and he comes at a $2K discount. He is running a bit on the lucky side with a .235 BABIP and isn't going to provide elite upside with a 20% K rate, but has been very solid allowing two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts. Cease also gets a plus matchup against the Royals who rank bottom in wOBA(.309), wRC+(91), and K rate(24 %) on the season. Catcher/First Base Early Luke Voit FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 3900 Opponent - NYM (Robert Gsellman) Park - NYM FD - 9.89 DK - 7.42 First base is loaded on the early slate and what stands out more than anything is that Voit is $800 cheaper than Hoskins on DraftKings. After a slow start to the season(10 for 43), Voit has come on strong and been a key piece while Stanton and Judge have been out. Since August 9, he has hits in 15 of 18 games with nine home runs and 18 RBI for an elite .343/.405/.791 slash line. He is my top play at first base on this slate in all formats. Main Eric Hosmer FD...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/2/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/2/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Max Scherzer FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - PHI (Zack Wheeler) Park - PHI FD - 39.75 DK - 22.59 I will admit I was on team fade in Max's last start after two rough outings and immediately regretted it as he breezed through the Red Sox lineup striking out 11 over six innings. It was the fourth time in six starts(left with injury after one inning in one start) he has struck out double-digit batters and it also lowered his ERA to 3.86 and his xFIP to an elite 2.94 on the season. I am not in love with the matchup against the Phillies but for you BvP truthers out there, the core of their lineup(Segura, Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, McCutchen) are a combined 14 for 104(.135 average) lifetime vs. Max. The case can definitely be made for Walker Buehler on FanDuel at a discount but overall, Scherzer is the top pitcher in the system and my favorite in all formats. Triston McKenzie FD - P 8000 DK - SP 6700 Opponent - KC (Jakob Junis) Park - KC FD - 29.4 DK - 15.56 There is a path to paying up for two pitchers in cash games tonight but if you are like me, you always want more bats. That leads to a cheap SP2 and tonight Triston McKenzie is back on my radar in his third major league start. He was electric in his debut(6 IP, 1 ER, 10K), was ok at best in his second start(4IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3K) which gives him a 2.70 ERA and 3.89 xFIP coming into tonight. I feel he is somewhere in between and his upside is more towards the first start tonight in a great matchup vs. the Royals who rank in the bottom third of the league in almost every offensive category. Catcher/First Base Eric Hosmer FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA FD - 11.31 DK - 8.64 Mitch Moreland FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA FD - 11.62 DK - 8.72 Austin Nola FD - C 2800 DK - 1B/C 3600 Opponent - LAA (Julio Teheran) Park - LAA FD - 10.24 DK - 7.87 We have a three-headed monster of Padres to kick off the bats tonight and it is a...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/1/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/1/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Zach Plesac FD 9700 DK 8300 Opponent - KC (Matt Harvey) Park - KCFD - 30.52 DK - 15.18 Please was one of the surprise arms this season, looking awesome in his first 21 innings but after breaking quarantine was sent to the Indians’ alternate sit and essentially put in timeout. But with Mike Clevinger getting traded to San Diego on Monday, Plesac will get the call up and start against the Royals. Kansas City is the 22nd ranked team wOBA this season and rank 22nd in getting on base. Plesac was striking out more than 10 batters per nine in his first three starts and really limiting the walks. That’s something of an outlier compared to his historical numbers, but he was throwing his slider and curve more than in the past. I like the play here on a day a little light on pitching. Julio Urías FD - P 7300 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - ARI (Alex Young) Park - LADFD - 33.22 DK - 17.56 Julio Urias remains a work in progress. The (still) young prospect has shown flashes of the strikeout stuff, but then there are the 1.2 IP games like he did two starts ago that make him rather risky. The Dodgers still aren’t willing to push the pitch counts much past 90 but that’s also why the price remains on the low side, especially on FanDuel. He is the biggest opening line favorite on Monday at -240 against the Diamondbacks. Arizona ranks 27th in team wOBA though only strikeout 20% of the time. This is still a good matchup for Urias especially considering the implied win odds. Josh Lindblom (FD $6800 DK $6600) has put up some big K stuff this season since coming over and faces a weak Tigers squad. The 3.88 xFIP is about 2.5 runs lower than his 6.31 ERA. He just needs to limit the walks. Catcher/First Base Justin Smoak FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - MILFD - 11.81 DK - 8.75 Ryan Braun FD - 1B 2700 DK - OF 3900 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - MILFD - 11.73 DK - 8.91 Michael Fulmer’s first 14 innings this season have been rough with a 5.74 xFIP while striking out only 16% of batters and walking 10%. Smoak and Braun have both struggled to start the season...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/31/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/31/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane Bieber FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC FD - 42.57 DK - 23.75 Despite the main slate being just seven games, we get three aces at the top but the decision is pretty easy here, at least for cash games. Shane "don't call me Justin" Bieber has been the top of the class of MLB pitching as he sits tied with Max Fried with a 1.35 ERA but separates himself as he also leads the league with an outstanding 1.57 xFIP, more than a half-run better than deGrom in second. Tonight, he gets the best matchup of the big three as a -220 favorite against the Royals who rank 20th or worse in wOBA(.316) and wRC+(95) and have struck out 24% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. All things considered, Bieber is my top pitcher in all formats. Trevor Williams FD 7200 DK 6000 Opponent - MIL (Eric Lauer) Park - MIL FD - 30.67 DK - 15.1 There is more than one way to go about pitching tonight in cash games but with all the offenses' in great spots, I want to steer clear of the double pay-up and look for a value option. One way to go would be to use Max Fried as a SP2 but that still puts us over $20K combined on DK so let's go even deeper. Trevor Williams got blown up by the White Sox in his last start but was very solid for cash games before that hitting at least 12 DK points in four straight before that. That is all I am looking for tonight if it means I can load up on a few more bats. Catcher/First Base José Abreu FD 4000 DK 5400 Opponent - MIN (Rich Hill) Park - MIN FD - 10.75 DK - 8.17 Edwin Encarnación FD 2700 DK 3800 Opponent - MIN (Rich Hill) Park - MIN FD - 10.71 DK - 7.94 The White Sox have the #1 offense in baseball when looking at key metrics like wOBA(.350), wRC+(123), and ISO(.220) and sit just two back of the Dodgers in home runs. On a small slate that includes a game in Coors, we definitely have some pivot options and the Sox are right near the top of the list. They face lefty Rich Hill who is more than due for some regression...