DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/21/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/21/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Luis Castillo FD - P 10200 DK - 9800 Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - CIN FD - 37.17 DK - 19.43 With Jacob deGrom pulled with a hamstring strain in his last start and likely still not 100% tonight, it makes the decision at the top fairly straight forward here with Luis Castillo. He is coming off arguably his best start of the season holding the Pirates to three over seven innings while striking out 10 and walking just one. Not only is the 3.03 ERA on the season impressive but his xFIP(2.84) is actually lower really backing up this solid season. Tonight the Reds are only slight -124 favorites but the Brewers have only been slightly above league average in wOBA and wrC+ and strike out 26% of the time overall(27% vs. RH pitching). Fire up Castillo in all formats. Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 8700 DK - SP 8300 Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA FD - 34.42 DK - 18.33 From a PTS/$ perspective, McCullers sits right at the top of the rankings on both sites as he checks almost every box. He and the Astros are -145 favorites in a game that has the second-lowest total(8.0) on the slate facing a Mariners team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in almost every offensive category for the season and over the last couple weeks. For McCullers, he is also coming off his best start of the season holding the Rangers to just two hits over seven innings, striking out eight and walking none. He is my top SP2 on DraftKings with Castillo and also in play on FanDuel if you want to go with a bats-heavy build. Catcher/First Base Luke Voit FD 4400 DK 5400 Opponent - TOR (Matt Shoemaker) Park - TOR FD - 9.49 DK - 7.12 The Yankees are finally getting healthy and that is a scary thought considering how they have performed without Stanton and Judge in the lineup. It comes down to other players stepping up and Luke Voit has done just that and is having a monster season hitting .286 with 21 home runs and 49 RBI in his first 49 games. To put that into perspective, he had just 21 home runs and 62 RBI all of last season(118 games). What stands out the most tonight for the Yankees is the...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/17/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/17/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane Bieber FD - P 11900 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET FD - 45.82 DK - 25.64 Pitching is pretty straight forward tonight and it starts with odds on favorite to win the Cy Young, Shane Bieber. It has been incredible what he has been doing in 2020 as he not only leads the entire league in ERA(1.53) and xFIP(1.95) but also leads all pitchers with an insane 41.3% K rate. He now gets an elite matchup vs. the Tigers who rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories including strikeouts as they K 27% of the time overall and 28% against right-handed pitching. Fire up Bieber in all formats. Dakota Hudson FD - P 8700 DK - RP 8200 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT FD - 29.54 DK - 14.07 While Hudson doesn't provide elite upside in terms of strikeouts(21.7% K rate), he has been very solid in his second season a starter. Through seven starts, he has gone 3-2 while holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Another positive here is the growth throughout the season as he failed to make it through five innings in his first three starts but has averaged six innings per start over his last four. The icing on the cake here is the matchup against the Pirates who sit dead last in runs-scoring(3.6 per game), wOBA(.276), and second to last in wRC+(71). Like I mentioned yesterday, I like to keep my SP's combined salary under $20K and pairing Hudson and Bieber accomplishes this tonight. Catcher/First Base Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4600 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - PIT FD - 13.62 DK - 10.23 The decision at the top is very close on DraftKings as Luke Voit has put the Yankees on his back but the slight discount can make all the difference in the world tonight if we are paying up for two pitchers. Goldy has once again been the face of consistency as he entered Wednesday hitting .314 with an elite .412 wOBA and 162 wRC+ and hitting lefty pitching has been his bread and butter tallying a .420 wOBA and 164 wRC+ since the start of last season. The Cards are a Top 5 offensive target on this slate and Goldy is in play...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/16/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/16/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 11500 DK - SP 9900 Opponent - TOR (Tanner Roark) Park - NYY FD - 46.61 DK - 26.72 Almost all of the elite pitching comes on the main slate and while you can never go wrong with Jacob deGrom, it is almost impossible to ignore Cole's price that has dipped below $10K on DraftKings. Finally, after 10 starts, he went a whole start without giving up a home run and outside of two starts(vs. TB, @ATL) has been very good this season. He has struck out seven or more batters seven straight starts and has a 33% K rate on the season and faces a Jays team that is only slightly above average offensively on the season and have struck out over 28% of the time over the last week. This is the lowest price I can remember over the past couple of years and you can bet I will be taking advantage in all formats. Dylan Bundy FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9100 Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - LAA FD - 35.33 DK - 18.96 On DraftKings, I am always trying to keep my starting pitcher's combined salaries below $20K and with Cole's price, we can easily accomplish that with Bunday at SP2. After four mediocre(at best) seasons with the Orioles, he looks like a completely new pitcher in LA going 5-2 over his first nine starts and holding opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of those starts(2.48 ERA, 3.38 xFIP). Tonight, he faces a D-Backs team that has lost 20 of their last 24 games and rank bottom 3 in almost every offensive category. All things considered, Bundy is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and an upside GPP play on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Albert Pujols FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - LAA FD - 10.15 DK - 7.72 If we are going to be paying up for pitching tonight(possibly two on DraftKings) we are going to need some value and I am a fan of what first base provides. It starts with the future first-ballot Hall of Famer, Albert Pujols, who may be on the home stretch of his career but is still providing fantasy value. He has been especially good lately as he comes in with hits in eight of his last 10 games while...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/14/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/14/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We have quite the slate to start the week with three doubleheaders, one make-up game, and two completely different slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. If playing DraftKings, keep in mind the three doubleheaders are just seven-inning games. Let's dig in and take a look at some core plays at each position, covering the entire day. Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD DK 10800 Opponent - PIT (Cody Ponce) Park - PIT FD - 38.91 DK - 21.14 Despite a small, very odd slate today, we have some nice options at starting pitcher. Bauer and the Reds are playing in one of the doubleheaders today but I am not as concerned with pitchers and especially Bauer who has a realistic shot at a complete game as he has gone seven or more innings in three of his eight starts(6+ IP in 7 of 8). Either way, Bauer has been incredible to start the year with a 1.74 ERA and while there is going to be regression, he is still operating with a 3.30 xFIP. On top of that, he has a sky-high ceiling striking out 36% of batters he has faced and gave up just a .222 wOBA against. The odds are not out on this game yet but I am going to go out on a limb and say the reds will be big favorites facing the Pirates who rank at or near the bottom of the league in every offensive category. Fire up Bauer in all formats. Marco Gonzales FD DK 7000 Opponent - OAK (Jesus Luzardo) Park - OAK FD - 31.69 DK - 16.87 If you are playing DraftKings, you are going to need a value option at SP2 allowing you to play Bauer or Kershaw. Gonzales is at the top of my list for a couple of reasons starting with the form as he has posted a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts while striking out 29 and walking just one batter. The other reason is the matchup as he faces an A's team who may be league-average against lefties in terms of wRC+(100) but have struck out an insane 27% of the time. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats. Also Consider: On FanDuel, we have to Clayton Kershaw and I say this only due to the matchup against the Padres. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD 4300 DK 5500 Opponent - BAL (Jorge Lopez)...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/10/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/10/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Dylan Bundy FD - P 9400 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - TEX FD - 37.81 DK - 20.62 Sitting atop the projections on the early slate is Dylan Bundy who may seem expensive on DraftKings but is actually at his lowest price in four starts. He and the Angels are in a favorable spot today as -180 favorites against the Rangers who rank dead last in runs scored and wRC+(64) and have been slightly worse against righties. For Bundy, it has been a terrific start to the season with his new team as he enters with a 2.49 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and has struck out 27% of the batters he has faced. He is the top pitcher in all formats on the early slate. Main Gerrit Cole FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10300 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - NYY FD - 47.55 DK - 27.23 I am not going to lie. I am a little worried about all the home runs Cole has been giving up this season but there is also a lot to like and it starts with the price on DraftKings at remains in the low $10K range. Even when he is giving up home runs, he is still hitting his floor and comes with a ton of upside thanks to his elite swing and miss stuff(33% K rate, 15% Swinging Strike Rate). After two terrible starts in a row, he bounced back his last time out against these Orioles and I think he puts together back to back solid starts and easily hits his cash value tonight and has a ton of GPP upside at this DK price. Also Consider: Chris Paddack(SDP) at his price is high in our PTS/$ rankings but which Paddack do we get? Josh Fleming(TAM) is an intriguing punt option for SP2 on DK as he has started his career with three straight wins posting a 3.52 ERA and backing it up with a 3.91 xFIP. Catcher/First Base Early Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 3700 Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK FD - 10.44 DK - 8 I am going to double down with Gurriel as I wrote him up last night. He hasn't been as consistent as years past but is still crushing left-handed pitching(.438 wOBA, 184 wRC+) and hitting near the middle...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/9/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/9/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Clayton Kershaw FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - ARI (Taylor Clarke) Park - ARI FD - 40.33 DK - 21.9 We get three pitchers at the top of the pricing tonight that have been absolutely dealing this season and somehow the former Cy Young winner is the cheapest of the three on DraftKings. He sits right at the top of the raw points and PTS/$ projections tonight as the Dodgers are -260 favorites against a Diamondbacks team that ranks 28th in both wOBA(.292) and wRC+(79) overall and have just a 61 wRC+ against lefties this season. I will have a ton of exposure to Kershaw in all formats. Dane Dunning FD - P 7700 DK - SP 6500 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT FD - 25.27 DK - 13.22 Going with two top pitchers on DraftKings is tough tonight as any combo of the three puts us over $20K and greatly lowers the expected output of our bats. Combine that with a pretty terrible mid-tier and that brings me to rookie Dane Dunning who is making his fourth career start. He has yet to get too deep into the game hitting a season-high 88 pitches last time out but has impressed with a 3.86 ERA and even better 3.12 xFIP and has also flashed his upside with a 30.5% K rate and godly 17.5% swinging strike rate through three starts. At these prices, he is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and is also a salary saving GPP option on FanDuel to load up on bats. Also Consider: Yu Darvish(CHC) who is having a Cy Young type season with an elite 1.44 ERA(2nd behind Bieber), 2.60 xFIP, and 33% K rate. He now faces a Reds team that has struck out 27% of the time over the last 14 days. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4800 Opponent - HOU (Luis Garcia) Park - OAK FD - 12.01 DK - 8.94 Sean Murphy FD - C 2200 DK - C 3600 Opponent - HOU (Luis Garcia) Park - OAK FD - 7.93 DK - 6.02 After the top three pitchers, tonight things really fall off the table and that is good news if you are a fan of offense as five teams currently have an implied run projection north of five. The A's are one of those teams and while...