DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/18/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/18/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC FD - 32.81 DK - 17.74 I don't think you can go wrong with either top pitcher tonight but I would be doing Woodruff an injustice not mentioning him here as he has been incredible to start the 2021 season. he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight straights going at least six innings in all of them while averaging 27.4 DK/46.36 FD points per game. That is just pure dominance on the back of a 33% K rate and 14% swinging-strike rate. The Royals are a league-average offense but what stands out to me here is that they rank outside the TOp 20 as a team against fastballs and Woodruff has the 2nd best one in the game, at the moment, and throws it 66% of the time. All things considered, Woodruff is my top pitcher in all formats. Andrew Heaney FD - P 7600 DK - SP 7800 Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - LAA FD - 36.33 DK - 19.35 If not paying up for both pitchers on DraftKings tonight there are some interesting options. I think the chalk SP2 falls with Snell who appears to be massively underpriced but for cash games, I just can't trust that 1.54 WHIP. This has me taking the savings with Andrew Heaney who is back under $8K after putting up a dud in two of his last three starts. The good news here is that he faces an Indians team that has an ugly 82 wRC+ on the season and even worse 76 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. At these prices Heaney is my favorite PTS/$ value play tonight. Also Consider: Zack Wheeler(PHI) as another top pay-up option. He has been consistent all season and has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts and walked just two batters over his last three starts. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5500 Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - LAD FD - 12.18 DK - 8.97 After somewhat of a slump, the Dodgers offense looks to be heating back up as they are averaging over 5.5 runs per game over the last 10 days. Muncy has been a big part of that as he has hits...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/16/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/16/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 8400 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - HOUFD - 38.53 DK - 20.81 This is a good spot for McCullers facing off against the Rangers on Sunday. He’s opening as a -173 home favorite which represents some of the better win odds on the slate. Texas has been a middling offense on the season, but they are striking out 26% as a team which bodes well for McCullers’ upside. He’s striking out 10.4 batters per nine at a 29% rate. The walks are still a little of a concern, something he’s struggled with most of his career. But in terms of talent, he’s one of the better pitchers on this main slate and should be a top cash option. Dylan Cease FD - P 7400 DK - SP 7400 Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - CHWFD - 33.05 DK - 16.72 The Royals rank 22nd in team wOBA on the season and though they don’t strike out at higher volume, there also isn’t all that much pop in these bats. Cease opens as a -150 home favorite here and he’s really spiked his K rate on the season, striking out 32% of opposing batters and putting down seven or more in each of his last three games. This hasn’t always been part of his profile, but he’s throwing the fastball more and can get it up to over 96MPH. I like the matchup for the righty on Sunday. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - PHI (Chase Anderson) Park - TORFD - 12.73 DK - 9.66 He’s having a breakout season and is priced as such. But man is he ever a tough fade here on Sunday. The young superstar is sitting with an OPS right around 1.000 for the season, easily the best mark he’s seen in his time in the majors. He’s walking (17%) more than he’s striking out (16%) and is just one of the tougher outs in the game right now. We are going to be getting into some more Blue Jays in short order, but know that the Toronto stacking begins with Vlad-y. if Rowdy Tellez (FD $2200 DK $3300) moves up at all in the lineup then he’d be a lock at these prices. José Abreu FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 5400...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/14/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/14/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Tyler Glasnow FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - NYM (David Peterson) Park - TB FD - 43.89 DK - 24.67 For the second day in a row, there is almost too much pitching on this slate, and while we are splitting hairs Tyler Glasnow is my favorite for a couple of reasons. It starts with the FanDuel price that sticks out like a sore thumb and even with a season-high price on DraftKings he tops my target list. It all comes down to the currency of strikeouts and how the sites are set up. While he has given up three earned runs and four walks in each of his last two starts, he has still given us a 2x return on DraftKings. The only risk here is the matchup against the red-hot Mets but floor/ceiling combination each and every time Glasnow steps on the mound is too much to pass up. Frankie Montas FD - P 7400 DK - SP 7000 Opponent - MIN (Matt Shoemaker) Park - MIN FD - 31.4 DK - 16.44 Getting one of those elite pitchers on DraftKings is made much easier with the value on this slate and no one stands out more than Frankie Montas. He hits a season-low price on DraftKings while producing 13 or more DK points in five of his last six games and 20+ in three of them. Two bad starts(6 & 7 ER) have inflated his ERA(5.50) but the good news is that the xFIP(4.18) is over a run better and he also faces a struggling Twins team that has dropped four straight and seven of their last eight games. There are more expensive options with more upside tonight but Montas is my favorite PTS/$ SP2 tonight if you want to upgrade those bats. Also Consider: Max Scherzer(WSH) on DraftKings as the second most expensive option facing a D-backs team that has been much more productive vs. lefties. For value, I also like Joe Musgrove(SDP) who leads the slate with a 2.35 xFIP and faces a Cards team that has tallied just a 70 wRC+ over the last seven days. Catcher/First Base Mike Moustakas FD - 2B 4000 DK - 1B/3B 4400 Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL FD - 12.58 DK - 9.43 Moose isn't first base eligible on FanDuel but that's fine as I am much more interested on DraftKings...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/12/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/12/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - TB (Josh Fleming) Park - TB FD - 47.79 DK - 26.83 Cole is coming off a somewhat of an odd start for him as he only struck out four but even giving up two earned runs, he wasn't a complete lineup killer, especially considering the high ownership. Outside of that one start, he has been elite once again this year coming in with a 1.61 ERA/2.10 xFIP and is striking out just over 40% of batters he faces. He now gets a plus matchup vs. the Rays who are striking out over 27% of the time including 10 vs. Cole in their first meeting. Cole is easily the top pitcher in all formats tonight. Danny Duffy FD - P 10200 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET FD - 31.93 DK - 16.22 There are multiple for SP2 on DraftKings or as GPP pivots off Cole and his monster price tag on FanDuel and for me, it starts with Danny Duffy. He has been terrific this season holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all six starts and one or fewer in five of those. He can get into trouble at times with the walks but has gotten out of it squeaky clean with a 28% K rate. While the Tigers have been better as of late, they rank dead last against lefties with a .217 wOBA, 36 wRC+, and 35% K rate!! All things considered, he is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and a low-owned GPP play on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 5500 Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - LAD FD - 11.05 DK - 8.14 The Dodgers go from #2 in my stack ranks last night to #1 tonight as they face another struggling Mariners pitcher. Tonight, it's Justin Dunn on the bump and he has already walked a shocking 17 batters in five starts and has an xFIP(6.20) that is nearly three runs higher than his ERA(3.51) coming into tonight. I like the Dodgers as a whole but will be focusing on the lefties in this article as Dunn has really struggled in the split. Muncy can be streaky and is probably too expensive for cash on DraftKings but FanDuel has the Dodgers underpriced putting them in play...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/11/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/11/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Walker Buehler FD - P 10800 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - LAD FD - 36.46 DK - 20.12 Outside of the one start where Buehler allowed five earned runs, he has been lights out allowing two or fewer earned runs in the other five starts. He has also found that swing and miss stuff lately with eight or more K's in three straight with a 14% swinging-strike rate. Making it better, he gets the best matchup of the top pitchers facing the Mariners who are below average vs. righties, overall, and over the last seven days. All things considered, Buehler is my top pitcher on the slate in all formats. Pablo López FD - P 8000 DK - SP 8200 Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI FD - 30.82 DK - 16.19 This is a very interesting game that is currently set as a pickem and our system has both Lopez and Bumgarner right about the same, as well. I have no problem with either but slightly lean Lopez for a couple of reasons starting with the discounted price and higher projected PTS/$ return. Lopez has also been pitching terrific lately holding opponents to just one earned run over his last four starts with 24 strikeouts. Finally, he faces a struggling D-backs team that has dropped six straight, scoring just 12 runs total. Lopez is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings in all formats and a nice low-owned GPP option on FanDuel. Also Consider: Brady Singer(KC) as a punt SP2 play on DraftKings under $6k. He gets a great matchup as a -130 favorite, in a game with a 7.5 total facing a Tigers team with an ugly 77 wRC+ on the season Catcher/First Base José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4700 Opponent - MIN (Kenta Maeda) Park - CHW FD - 10.77 DK - 8.15 Zack Collins FD - C 2400 DK - C 3400 Opponent - MIN (Kenta Maeda) Park - CHW FD - 8.12 DK - 5.99 First base is a bit tricky as there are a lot of top options but they are either struggling or in tougher matchups. What stood out to me right away was the fact we are getting the reigning MVP at a discount based on his slow start to the season. The good news is that he appears to be heating...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/7/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/7/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jack Flaherty FD - P 10200 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - STL FD - 40.69 DK - 22.06 We get a nice selection of top pitchers tonight but Flaherty stands out and it starts with the price as he is 4th in pricing on DraftKings in the mid $9K range. He and the Cards are also the biggest favorites(-196) on the slate facing a Rockies team that ranks 25th in wRC+(74) on the road and come in with a terrible 80 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. For Flaherty, it has been a tremendous rebound after a rough opening day(6 ER) and has only given up seven earned runs over his last five starts(2.10 ERA/3.57 xFIP) with a 27% K rate. All things considered, Flaherty is my top pitcher in all formats. Mike Foltynewicz FD - P 7700 DK - SP 6800 Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - TEX FD - 30.12 DK - 15.31 There are a ton of different ways to go at SP2 tonight including double pay-up, a mid-tier option, or my favorite, a trip to value town. The system likes Charlie Morton a ton here and it makes sense if the Phillies are without Harper to open the series. Sure, Folty has some ticks against him as well but comes $900 cheaper and has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. He also faces a Mariners team that has struggled lately(64 wRC+ last 7 days) and rank bottom five in almost all offensive stats for the season. There is not a ton of upside here but at these prices, I live the PTS/$ floor he provides allowing us to spend up for 2-3 big bats. Catcher/First Base Mitch Garver FD - C 2700 DK - C 5200 Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET FD - 11.72 DK - 8.76 Targeting against Tarik Skubal early the season has most definitely paid off this season so why stop why? He enters the night with a 6.14 ERA, 6.83 xFIP, and has twice given up three home runs in a game. What really stands out, however, is the damage righties have been doing to the tune of an 8.27 xFIP and .446 wOBA against. That is where this pick of Garver at catcher leads off the bats in this slate. He is projected to...