DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD 10000 DK 9600 Opponent - MIA (Zach Thompson) Park - MIA FD - 34.54 DK - 18.93 This very well may be the worst pitching slate of the season and makes our decision to fade a high-priced ace very easy as there aren't any. We still have to roster a pitcher(two on DraftKings) and for me, it starts with Charlie Morton who has been providing nice PTS/$ value but now gets a monster price which is mostly relative to the options on this slate. While he did get hit around by these very Marlins in his last start, the matchup is on the plus side as they do rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories. This game also has the lowest total(7.5) on the slate and with strikeouts being king Morton gives us a 5-7 K floor. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this slate and in play in all formats. Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 34.68 DK - 18.72 Walker got pushed up a day due to a rainout yesterday and has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) which does limit the upside here but overall they rank as a bottom 5-10 offense giving Walker a nice PTS/$ floor in the $9K range on both sites. Kenta Maeda FD - P 7300 DK - SP 7100 Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - MIN FD - 29.85 DK - 15.93 With an overall lack of serviceable options on this slate, I was a little surprised to see Maeda as a -205 favorite in the low $7K range on DraftKings. His first half has been a complete roller coaster ride but the good news is that he is coming off his best start of the season going six innings in KC allowing just two hits and no runs while striking out 10 and walking just one. If he limits the walks, he can easily get into the 6th inning giving him a very high PTS/$ floor and ceiling. Lock in the value at SP2 in all formats. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 5400 Opponent - TEX (Jordan...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 33.32 DK - 18.1 Not going to lie. I am getting tired of being burned by elite-priced pitching and making the decision to fade those top ones is much easier tonight as they are facing each other(Max vs. Yu). I will be going with a much more balanced approach and it starts with Walker who has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) but rank as a bottom-five offense overall leading to the Mets being big -195 favorites and Walker one of my favorite pitchers on this slate. Alek Manoah FD - P 10300 DK - SP 6800 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 33.44 DK - 18.38 This is mostly a DraftKings-only play as he is massively underpriced, especially considering the rookie is coming off his best start of the season. It was also his longest outing(7 IP) and against a tough Rays team that he struck out 10 times. He now has a season-low price tag(since his debut) facing a bottom 10 offense in the Orioles who are also much worse against righties with an 84 wRC+ and 25% K rate. Manoah is my top, and likely chalk, SP2 on DraftKings and makes a nice high upside/low owned GPP pivot on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4700 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 16.83 DK - 12.77 The Blue Jays are like a super team tonight as they are easily the highest projected offense and despite being very expensive aren't too hard to fit if using Manoah as your SP2. While the lineup is stacked top to bottom it revolves around Valddy who is having an MVP-like first half hitting .344 with 28 home runs and 72 RBI. He and the Jays now get a matchup against a struggling Keegan Akin who has given up 6+ hits and 4+ earned runs in four straight starts. If you needed more convincing, Vladdy has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and 159 wRC+. You know what to do! Eric Haase FD - C...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/6/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/6/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11500 Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - NYMFD - 51.42 DK - 29.65 DeGrom is a -263 favorite with an over/ under of six on this slate, which represent just stupid numbers for an actual Major League baseball game. The righty is putting up historic numbers this season with 136 strikeouts through his first 85 innings, sporting a 12:1 K:BB ratio and rocking a 1.63 ERA which is only barely trailing his 0.95 ERA. These numbers are just dumb and he’s easily the best pitcher in baseball. The price, even at these levels, is still too cheap for what he’s doing on the mound. It’s a pretty easy spot to just run him in cash and not feel even remotely worried about it. Ian Anderson FD - P 8400 DK - SP 8600 Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PITFD - 38.52 DK - 20.41 Anderson has been solid this season with a 3.50 xFIP on the season while striking out more than a batter per inning. You’d like the 3.15 BB rate to come down a little more though he has made some improvements in that department since last season. The big story here is that he gets to face the Pirates who are easily the worst offense in the league this season with a .286 team wOBA. They don’t strikeout a ton, but they also can’t hit at all. Anderson is a -170 road favorite in this one and is a solid DK SP2 here. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 5900 Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PITFD - 13.86 DK - 10.37 With Chad Kuhl taking the mound for the Pirates, we are going to hope to get at least a couple of Braves into our DFS lineups here. Kuhl is easily the worst arm going here with some garbage peripherals and a 5.60 xFIP. Freeman is in a prime spot and continues to be one of the very best bats in the league even if the OPS isn’t telling that exact story. He walks 15% of the time, is tough to strike out and has the BABIP dragging him down some this season. If you want to play DeGrom it will be tough to fit the salary, but it’s worth it to try. Luke Voit FD - 1B...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM FD - 36.32 DK - 20.76 After laying an egg in Coors back in mid-June, Woodruff has gotten back to his dominant self allowing just one earned run in each of his last two starts while striking out 17 batters. They were both plus matchups(ARI. CHC) but the good news is that they get another one tonight as they go into one of the best pitchers parks in Citi Field. He faces an inconsistent Mets team that has scored the third-fewest runs since the start of June while striking out 25% of the time. I know top pitchers have been shaky since the whole "stick stuff" ban but Woodruff is one pitcher it seems to have not affected. Either way, he is in a great spot and my top pitcher in all formats. Joe Musgrove FD - P 9600 DK - SP 8700 Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - SD FD - 35.86 DK - 19.44 I completely understand if you want to fade or at least be underweight on Woodruff and if that is the case, Joe Musgrove has a projection very close to Woodruff but comes with a much lower price tag. While he is coming off a dud against the Reds(5 ER), he has been consistent all year entering the night with a 2.63 ERA/3.29 xFIP and the upside we seen in 2020(33% K rate) has carried over into this season(30%). He faces a Nats team that has been struggling in the short term losing four straight and will be without Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber on Monday. Musgrove has huge win expectation as a -210 favorite and is one of our top PTS/$ plays on the mound. Catcher/First Base Salvador Perez FD 3200 DK 5000 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 12.47 DK - 9.48 Ryan O'Hearn FD 2600 DK 3200 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 10.8 DK - 8.08 This is one of the first articles I have written in a long time where one of the Top 5 offenses in baseball wasn't also the top projected team on the slate. That honor goes to the Kansas City Royals tonight in a great spot vs. Gutierrez who has given up 6+ hits in four of his last...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/30/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/30/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Chris Bassitt FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - TEX (Kolby Allard) Park - OAK FD - 41.53 DK - 22.63 Bassitt may not provide the upside we are used to getting with our top-priced pitcher but his price is mostly relative to the size of the slate and lack of options at the top. The good news here is that he has been one of the more consistent arms this season holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts lowering his ERA to 3.25 on the season. On top of the consistency, he gives us some of the best win equity on the slate as a -200 favorite against a below-average Rangers offense. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this main slate. Joe Musgrove FD - P 8700 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 37.66 DK - 20.83 First of all, this is a big park downgrade for Musgrove but as I mentioned above we are short on options tonight so talent wins out. The year started off with a bang as he shutout Arizona over six innings followed by a no-hitter against Texas and then three more starts holding opponents to just five total earned runs. After a couple of rough outings, he has been consistent since posting a 1.57 ERA over his last eight starts and has gone at least six innings in three straight. He has provided a high floor all season and despite a smaller slate the price has actually come back down making him a top PTS/$ option and my favorite SP2 on the slate. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4700 DK 5900 Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA FD - 16.14 DK - 12.24 There are really only two ways to go at first base it seems like on a nightly basis. You either pay up for pitching and scatter value bats throughout your lineup or find some value pitching and load up on bats. If paying up, there is really only one option and it's Valddy Jr who comes in with hits in nine straight including five multi-hit efforts, and has arguably been the MVP of the league with a .344/.446/.685 slash line. Unlike a year ago, he has really crushed lefties as well and is in play...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/29/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/29/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11400 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - CHC (Zach Davies) Park - MIL FD - 38.06 DK - 21.26 The Cubs run into an absolute buzzsaw this series facing the Brewers top pitching and they face arguably the best of the bunch in Woodruff tonight. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball on the season with the 3rd best ERA(1.89) and xFIP(2.81) among qualified pitchers. He just doesn't give up a ton of contact or walk many batters(.76 WHIP) giving him a high floor and also provides a ton of upside with a 31% K rate facing a Cubs team that has struck out over 30% of the time over the past few weeks. Easily my top pitcher in all formats on this slate. Jose Urquidy FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9900 Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - HOU FD - 36.65 DK - 19.11 The price is on the rise but it's most definitely warranted as Urquidy has been terrific since returning from injury going 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA/3.50 xFIP and has seen the K #'s rise substantially since the start of the season. He now gets an elite matchup against a struggling Orioles team that has dropped 16 of their last 18 games while scoring just an average 3.1 runs per game and striking out 27% of the time. With a larger slate and tons of value bats, it won't be hard to pair Urquidy with another top pitcher making him my favorite SP2 on this slate and is close to my favorite PTS/$ option on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 5300 Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - HOU FD - 13.52 DK - 9.85 First article of the week for me so of course, I am going to start off with one of my favorite DFS plays this season in Yuli Gurriel. He has been great all season(.333/.396/.517 slash) and it's also hard to ignore the short-term as he went into Monday night's game hitting .386 in June with a .406 wOBA and 164 wRC+. DraftKings is catching up in terms of pricing but he is still 7th in pricing but the real value lies on FanDuel where he is still $3K. I will have exposure in all formats. Nate Lowe FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4200...