DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/11/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/11/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Dylan Cease FD - P 10900 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - KC (Zack Greinke) Park - KC FD - 43.63 DK - 24.55 The American League Cy Young race is heating up and it's not that Verlander is slipping but more that Cease is on a historical pace at the moment. He comes into Thursday having held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in 13 straight starts(.59 ERA) while striking out 31% of batters and he has also picked up a win in seven of his last eight. He now faces a bottom 10 Royals offence and while they don't K much overall(21%), Cease has dominated them twice with 18 total strikeouts. He is our top pitcher and once again an elite play in all formats. Merrill Kelly FD - P 10100 DK - SP 9100 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - ARI FD - 33.53 DK - 17.81 The D-Backs won't be playing in October this season but they are definitely building a core that should contend in years to come and veteran Merill Kelly has and will continue to be a big part of that. He hasn't quite been Cease-level good but has still been very good lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts(1.49 ERA). He also gets arguably the best matchup on the board against the struggling Pirates who rank bottom three in almost all statistical categories including strikeouts(25% K rate). The price has peaked but I am fully invested on this smaller slate in all formats. Also Consider: Zach Plesac(CLE) as a value SP2 on DraftKings Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD 4300 DK 5000 Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - COL FD - 15.95 DK - 11.99 If you have the salary, paying up for MVP odds leader, Paul Goldschmidt, presents the most upside but he also comes at a huge cost. For cash games, I will turn to the other dugout in this game and roll with C.J. Cron who has been just as good or better in the short term as he enters with hits in five straight and eight of his last 10 games including seven extra-base hits. He is also on pace to set a new career high in home runs(23 coming into tonight) and more importantly sits 7th overall with 80 runs batted in this season. With salary cap in mind,...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/9/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/9/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shohei Ohtani FD 11200 DK 10300 Opponent - OAK (James Kaprielian) Park - OAKFD - 45.49 DK - 25.11 We have an interesting day with some high-priced arms and a game in Coors which will make for some interesting decisions all around. It will be tough to fit everyone, price-wise but we will look at all the best options here. Ohtani has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, rocking a 2.29 xFIP and striking out more than 13 batters per nine. It really doesn’t get much better than that. Here he’s a -182 road favorite against the A’s who have the second-worst team wOBA in the league. This all lines up perfectly for cash games. Zack Wheeler FD 10700 DK 10400 Opponent - MIA (Braxton Garrett) Park - MIAFD - 41 DK - 22.22 Wheeler isn’t striking out quite as many batters as last season, but he’s still been excellent with a 2.69 ERA and 27% K rate. He isn’t cheap on either site, but it’s for good reason. The Phillies are -241 home favorites against the Marlins, the best win odds of any team on the slate. And Miami ranks 27th in team wOBA this season, making them another bottom-feeding offense facing off against an ace. Catcher/First Base Paul Goldschmidt FD 4500 DK 6400 Opponent - COL (Ryan Feltner) Park - COLFD - 15.28 DK - 11.58 Yadier Molina FD 2700 DK 2200 Opponent - COL (Ryan Feltner) Park - COLFD - 9.94 DK - 7.67 We’ve got a game in Coors and are going to want to get as many Cardinals bats into the mix as possible. Some are fairly priced so it won’t be an enormous stretch to get there. Goldschmidt is having one of the best hitting seasons in the majors right now with a 1.029 OPS thanks to 26 home runs and a .415 OBP. He's expensive but worth the price considering he’s in the best ballpark with the most implied runs. If you can fit him in lineups, don’t hesitate. Molina meanwhile is having a struggle of a season at the plate and could be nearing the end of the line in what he’s able to do with the bat. Heck, the dude is 40 and is still starting because of what he does behind the plate, not at it. That being said, he’s coming near the minimum on...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/8/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/8/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Chris Bassitt FD - P 10400 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - CIN (Justin Dunn) Park - NYM FD - 41.78 DK - 22.97 Despite Jacob deGrom making just two starts this season, the Mets have a Top 5 starting rotation in terms of ERA(3.58) and a lot can be attributed to Chris Bassitt who came over from Oakland in the offseason. While the strikeout upside has been league-average(24%), he has been very consistent going into the sixth inning or deeper in eight straight starts thanks to a near-elite walk rate(6.6%). The Reds have been sneaky good recently winning six of their last eight but still rank bottom 10 in wOBA and wRC+ while striking out nearly 25% of the time and have been considerably worse against right-handed pitching. All things considered, he is our top arm on this slate. Zac Gallen FD - P 9600 DK - SP 7900 Opponent - PIT (Tyler Beede) Park - ARI FD - 32.01 DK - 17.13 Gallen has been one of the few bright spots for the rebuilding D-Backs in 2022 thanks to a somewhat transformation in his game. He is throwing fewer fastballs and more offspeed and while that has hurt his overall K upside(23.3% K rate), he has been more consistent with fewer walks, flyballs, and home runs which has led to a 3.31 ERA overall. What really stands out here is the matchup as he faces a Pirates team that ranks dead last in wOBA(.267) and wRC+(70) in the second half while striking our nearly 26% of the time. Finally, he is in play on both sites tonight but especially stands out on DraftKings where the price is back in the sub $8K range. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4300 DK - 1B 6200 Opponent - BAL (Jordan Lyles) Park - BAL FD - 14.65 DK - 11.04 We definitely have some tough decisions to make on this smaller slate as we have a plethora of high-priced talent and it starts at first base. First up is Vladdy who extended his season-long hit streak to 18 games on Sunday and in that time is hitting .420 with a .487 wOBA, 223 wRC+ and surprisingly has also added four stolen bases! On Monday, he gets a matchup against Jordan Lyles who has been better in the second half but still sits with a 4.40 ERA/4.45 xFIP and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/9/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/9/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Carlos Rodón FD 10600 DK 9500 Opponent - OAK (Adam Oller) Park - OAK FD - 41.24 DK - 23.03 The Giants opted to keep their ace rather than trade him at the deadline and will now focus on the NL wildcard. Rodon enters the second half with an above-average 3.06 ERA but what really stands out for fantasy is the elite 32% K rate and 14% swinging strike rate. On Saturday he faces an A’s team that has been better in the second half but still ranks bottom five overall and bottom three against left-handed pitching. All things considered, Rodon is my top play on the mound tonight, especially on DraftKings where the price remains under $10K. Nathan Eovaldi FD 8300 DK 7300 Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC FD - 34.19 DK - 18.62 After getting lit up in his final two starts before the break, Eovaldi bounced back in a big way on Monday holding the Astros to four hits and just two unearned runs over 6.1 innings. He will look to carry that over into a terrific matchup against the Royals who have dropped eight of their last 11 games while scoring just 2.8 runs per game and striking out 28% of the time. Despite the matchup and his latest start, Eovaldi comes to us at a season-low price on DraftKings making him our top SP2 on this slate. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4100 DK 5300 Opponent - MIN (Dylan Bundy) Park - MIN FD - 12.73 DK - 9.59 Vladdy has put his slow start in the rearview and is back to his 2021 MVP-like status as he enters the night with a 16-game hitting streak and is now hitting .318 with an elite .406 wOBA since the start of June. He and the Jays now get a plus matchup against Dylan Bundy who struggled going into the break giving up three or more earned runs in four straight starts in July(6.98 ERA). The price has come back up but Vlad is still only the fifth most expensive play at first base(on DK) tonight. I will have a ton of exposure in all formats. Brandon Belt FD 2500 DK 3000 Opponent - OAK (Adam Oller) Park - OAK FD - 10.95 DK - 8.16 There is most certainly a path to paying up for two stud pitchers on this slate and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/5/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/5/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Dylan Cease FD - P 10900 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEXFD - 41.93 DK - 23.47 Cease comes in as a -178 road favorite against the Rangers on this slate and makes for the top overall raw points pitcher going. He’s having a Cy Young-worthy season with a 2.01 ERA (3.02 xFIP) while striking out batters at a better than 33% clip. The Rangers are a below-average offense on the season and strike out, as a team, more than 23% of the time. This is lining up for another big outing by Cease. Robbie Ray FD 9400 DK 8900 Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - LAAFD - 38.99 DK - 21.09 Though the ERA is sitting at 4.11, the xFIP is more than half a run lower and he draws one of the better matchups of the day against the Trout-less Angels on this slate. Ray comes in as a -211 home favorite against an offense ranked 26th in the league despite having Trout and Ohtani at the top of the lineup. Ray has been inconsistent this season which is a bit worrisome but the matchup is just too good here to pass up. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD 2400 DK 3300 Opponent - CLE (Hunter Gaddis) Park - CLEFD - 10.93 DK - 8.44 Gurriel isn’t having an amazing season, but there are some things going for him here. He’s coming cheap on both sites and should be hitting cleanup for the Astros. He’s facing off against Hunter Gaddis who is making his major league debut in this game as well. Gaddis has flashed strikeout stuff in the minors, but control has been an issue. And Gurriel makes a lot of contact, putting the ball in play about 82% of the time. Plus, he’s shown some speed on the base paths with eight stolen bases this season. Ji-Man Choi FD 2800 DK 3600 Opponent - DET (Bryan Garcia) Park - DETFD - 11.39 DK - 8.49 Choi should also be in the cleanup spot for the Rays and like Gurriel, is coming on the cheaper side on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He strikes out a lot more, but the .769 OPS plays and he does walk about 14% of the time. Bryan Garcia has struggled in the majors, striking out fewer than seven batters per nine while walking 5.3 per nine....
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/4/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/4/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Justin Verlander FD 11200 DK 10400 Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - CLEFD - 37.4 DK - 20.63 While I think Verlander is the top cash game option on the main slate, I do want to warn that we shouldn’t be totally fooled by some of his stats this season. He has a 1.81 ERA but the xFIP is much higher at 3.47. He’s striking out fewer than a batter per inning and has gotten lucky on BABIP and LOB%. All that being said, he’s still the best play on this slate which is really weak on pitching. I don’t feel amazing about the matchup, but again this is more about lack of options than about a solid case for Verlander. Noah Syndergaard FD 7700 DK 7600 Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSHFD - 35.35 DK - 18.19 José Quintana FD 7700 DK 6700 Opponent - CHC (Marcus Stroman) Park - CHCFD - 34.38 DK - 17.61 I’m putting these two guys together here because there are a number of similarities between them. Thor will start for the Phillies and is coming in as a massive -239 favorite against the now Soto-less Nationals. And Quintana is a -150 favorite against the Cubs though has a lower opposing run line. Neither dial the K’s up all that much, but the matchups play. Pairing either with Verlander on DK works because of the price points which don’t break the bank. But again, neither is close to an ace right now either. I think I would lean Quintana here on DK because you get the $900 savings and that means something. Catcher/First Base Rhys Hoskins FD 3100 DK 4000 Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSHFD - 13.13 DK - 9.75 J.T. Realmuto FD 3300 DK 4700 Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSHFD - 11.65 DK - 8.89 The Phillies have the highest implied run line on the slate at 5.6 facing off against Paolo Espino. The latter has a lower K rate and though he’s been around baseball forever, doesn’t have much in the way of put away stuff. Hoskins is have a solid year though hasn’t made quite the gains that were expected. He still has a .799 OPS and 20 home runs but we might just never see the power numbers he put up very early in his career. While better against lefties, he...