DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/18/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/18/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Madison Bumgarner FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - ARI (Zack Godley) Park - ARI FD - 31.82 DK - 16.47 Right now it essentially looks like we'll be deciding whether we want to go cheaper with Bumgarner or more expensive with Stephen Strasburg. We'll get to Stras' case in a second, so let's take a look at Bumgarner. First, the bad news. Getting Bumgarner in Arizona instead of the pitcher friendly Oracle park is less than ideal. It also doesn't help that the Diamondbacks have been, well, awesome against left handed pitching. Their .365 wOBA against lefties is the second best in the majors, and are far from a conventional target for our cash game pitchers. So why bother with Bumgarner? It's mostly a function of his price, the other options, and his own talents. The Mad Bum has been great this season, posting a 9.38 K/9 against a pristine 1.29 BB/9. He's been averaging six innings per start as well. Like I said, this isn't exactly a spot you're dreaming about, but given the lack of great options today it might be our best. Stephen Strasburg FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - WSH FD - 36.75 DK - 20.11 You won't get any argument from me that Strasburg is the best raw talent pitcher on this slate. He's got a sparkling 2.72 xFIP thanks to his career best 11.84 K/9 this season. He's also rolling with a near career best 51.1% ground-ball rate, and all of these improvements have come without the cost of his control. His ERA is nothing to write home about, but the 2.72 xFIP very much paints the picture that we're looking at peak Stras. Like Bumgarner, though, Strasburg has some match-up issues. The Cubs hold the 6th best wOBA against righties, and are striking out at a below average rate against them. While Strasburg is better than Bumgarner, he's also more expensive. I'll be curious to see where our lineup optimizer lands on this one. Nick Margevicius FD - P 7000 DK - SP 6900 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - SD FD - 28.33 DK - 13.69 Put away your pitchforks! No, Margevicius hasn't been very good so far in his brief major league career. But the 22 year old southpaw has more promise than you might realize. He was basically a...
FanDuel and DraftKings Picks for Friday, 5/17/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/17/19 Friday's MLB action brings us plenty of options for FanDuel and DraftKings lineups. We've got some aces taking the mound in deGrom and Scherzer. But there's also plenty of ways to stack big bats if you aren't going to pay up for pitching. Let's take a look at what Friday's baseball DFS options have to offer. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This season has been crazy in terms of weather and this forecast is no different. The cities/states that we need to focus on are Washington, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago and Seattle. The good news is that none of them look too serious at this point but it will be critical to monitor these developing forecasts over the next 24 hours. PitchersJacob deGrom FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11400 Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIAFD - 46.02 DK - 25.73deGrom is easily the best pitching option on the board. Not only is he one of the best pitchers in the majors right now, he also has the best matchup possible. In fact, the Marlins currently rank dead-last in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA. That's really no surprise when you consider the fact that Starlin Castro is their best hitter. Pitching at Marlins Park should only help, as that currently ranks as the best pitcher's park in the league based on park factors. Vegas loves deGrom too, making him a -260 favorite in a game with a 6.5-total. Joey Lucchesi FD - P 6200 DK - SP 8200 Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - SDFD - 32.93 DK - 17.51Lucchesi is my favorite value play of the day and this $6,300 price tag on FanDuel is nearly impossible to fade. While his 4.57 ERA and 1.35 WHIP is nothing to write home about, he's a much better pitcher than those numbers would indicate. His 3.37 FIP this season is a much better indicator of how good he's been and it's hard to argue with his 25.4 percent career K rate. That FIP and K rate are way too good for a pitcher below $7,000, especially a guy who gets to pitch at Petco Park against a bad offense. Not only is Petco one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors, the Pirates also rank 25th in wOBA and 28th in runs scored. Also Consider: Max Scherzer (FD $10800 DK $11100) is arguably the best pitcher in the league and is always worth considering, even against the Cubs. Listen to "Friday's...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 5/16/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 5/16/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Chris Bassitt FD - P 10000 DK - SP 8600 Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET FD - 32.84 DK - 17.1 Pitching is a bit ugly on the early slate today but one name that stands out is Chris Bassitt of the Athletics. He is getting a shot every fifth day as a starter and making the most of it posting a 2.55 ERA/3.15 xFIP through four starts. He has had issues with home runs but appears to be running a bit unlucky considering his low 85 mph average exit velocity and 34% hard contact rate. More good news as he also has flashed a ton of upside with a 32% K rate with three pitches(Fastball, Curveball, Slider) in which he is generating a 13%+ swinging strike rate with. He now gets a plus matchup against a Tigers team that has really struggled against righties with a .283 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and 26% K rate. Fire up Bassitt in all formats. Also Consider: Zack Wheeler(NYM) @ WAS Main Luis Castillo FD - P 10300 DK - SP 10600 Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - CIN FD - 37.54 DK - 20.72 The good news tonight is that the sites included this 6:40 pm ET game on the main slate that is lacking pitching but the bad news is the matchup for Luis Castillo. The Cubs sit as a Top 10 offense this season but Castillo has pushed himself near that elite territory where we can downgrade the impact of matchup a little bit. He has taken a huge step in his third season in the bigs and while he is still having some issues with walks(10.9%) he has reached a new level of upside with a 31.8% K rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate which has been impacted most by his changeup that he throws 32% of the time and is generating a 31% swinging strike rate(31%!!!). Considering the other options, I fully expect Castillo to be chalky but is easily the best option in all formats. Also Consider: Marcus Stroman(TOR) @ CWS Catcher/First Base Early Matt Olson FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET FD - 10.43 DK - 7.79 Olson is off to a slow start in 2019 thanks to an injury in game two of the season where he broke a hamate bone. He has hits...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/15/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/15/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Wednesday is a bit of a mess with three-game, early slate and eight-game main slate with a very early LAA @ MIN matchup that can be played on the all-day slate. I didn't want to get into a position by position breakdown of a three-game slate so here are my quick thoughts. At pitcher, I side with Zack Greinke who has been brilliant since that nightmare Opening Day start posting a 2.19 ERA, 2.99 xFIP with 52 strikeouts(27.3%) and just six walks(3%). He now faces a Pirates team that has been better against righties but still ranks bottom 5 in the league in almost all offensive categories. If this spot worries you, Happ vs. Baltimore is also in play but be sure to check the weather. For bats, I will be looking to target the Yankees against David Hess, the Blue Jays vs. Derek Holland and the Giants vs. Edwin Jackson who will start a game on a record 14th team in his career which is not fantasy relevant at all besides he has been good enough to stick around all these years but bad enough no one wanted him long term. Let's jump into the main slate picks. Pitchers Patrick Corbin FD - P 9400 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - NYM (Wilmer Font) Park - WSH FD - 37.41 DK - 20.34 We have two excellent options at the top tonight but from a PTS/$ perspective, I am leaning Corbin. He has been impressive in his first season with the Nats posting a 3.20 ERA/3.85 xFIP with a 28% K rate which is in line with his breakout 2018 with the D-Backs. He and the Nats open as -165 home favorites against the division-rival Mets who may be slightly better against lefties when looking at wOBA(.335) and wRC+(115) but strike out just over 28% of the time in the split adding to Corbin's upside. All things considered, I think it's a lot closer on DraftKings but on FanDuel with his $2,100 discount, I am definitely locking Corbin and running lineups with the optimizer tonight. Justin Verlander FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - DET (Undecided) Park - DET FD - 37.51 DK - 21.15 Justin Verlander is the piece that makes it close on DraftKings as he is just $1,000 more than Corbin and is the better pitcher(talent-wise) with a longer track record. While he has allowed four earned...
FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Picks for Tuesday, 5/14/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/14/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!Thank god for roofs at stadiums because if we didn't have them, there would be a ton of weather on this slate. The cities/states with questionable forecasts include Seattle, Miami, Boston, Minnesota and New York. The first two games there have roofs and the final three don't have too much concern in terms of rain. That's all we can ask for and it appears we'll have a clean slate for the first time in a while. With that said, it's always imperative to check the forecasts just to make sure. PitchersCharlie Morton FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - MIAFD - 39.17 DK - 21.18People don't give Morton the respect he deserves, as he's truly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the AL. His 2.64 ERA, 2.86 FIP and 30 percent K rate are impressive enough but his .284 xwOBA proves that it's no fluke. That would make him worth using against anyone but it's always a good idea to fire up a pitcher against the Marlins. In fact, Miami currently ranks dead-last in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA. That will become even tougher in Marlins Park, which ranks as the best pitching park in the majors based on park factors. That's why Miami is projected for only three runs here, as Morton will also get to face a pitcher in an NL park. Chris Sale FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10800 Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - BOSFD - 39.43 DK - 22.37Sale got off to a nightmare start this season but recent results show that he's back to his Cy Young form. Over his last four starts, Sale has pitched to a 1.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while striking out 42 batters across 26 innings. That's obviously ridiculous and it's crystal clear that he's back. While Colorado traditionally has a solid offense, they always struggle on the road. In fact, the Rockies currently rank 27th in road OPS this season, which ironically matches their 27th-ranked road OPS from last season. They're also one of the worst strikeout teams in the majors, sitting 20th in K rate. Luke Weaver (FD $9400 DK $8800) has been a pleasant surprise this season and gets a quality matchup against a bottom-five Pittsburgh offense. Catcher/First BaseSteve Pearce FD - 1B 2200 DK - 1B/OF 3200 Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - BOSFD - 9.89 DK - 7.47Pearce has gotten...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/13/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/13/19 Monday's MLB action brings us a shorter evening slate of games with plenty of pitching options. That could leave the offensive stacking options a little on the thinner side of things. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Robbie Ray FD - P 8800 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - PIT (Nick Kingham) Park - ARIFD - 36.13 DK - 19.8 With Robbie Ray you are going to have to be willing to walk the emotional tightrope with any of his starts. That’s because his strikeout *stuff* is as good as just about anyone in the game. Unfortunately, it’s paired with walk *stuff* that will drive you hurtling towards an early grave. On Monday, considering the short slate and the matchup I think we can roll Ray out there in cash games and hold our breath. The Pirates rank dead last in team wOBA against lefties this season (.259) and strikeout almost 29% of the time intact split. They are a wreck and the bottom of the order is among the weakest in the game. Ray, for all his wildness (4.74 BBs per nine) still owns a respectable 3.76 xFIP thanks to an 11.34 K/9 rate and the ability to limit the home runs thus far. Shane Bieber FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHWFD - 33.41 DK - 17.98 The Indians come in as only a slight (-125) road favorite against the White Sox though that line strikes me as just a tad low. Bieber has some of the best control in the game when things are clicking and this season he owns nearly a 4:1 K:BB rate. The walks are up just a tad over his career numbers, but the White Sox are a free-swinging team striking out 26% of the time against righties and ranking in the bottom third in taking walks. We aren’t getting great money line win odds on Bieber, and the ballpark does him no favors when it comes to suppressing power, but I still like his chances for going further into the game because of the White Sox team hitter profile. Some will talk themselves into Jose Berrios (FD $10400 DK $9400) against the Angels but I prefer the two arms above. Berrios is striking out less than a batter per nine this season and the 4.11 xFIP is about 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. The Angels, while not a prolific offense, don’t strike out all that much (16% of the time against righties, easily the lowest in the league.) Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4300 Opponent - LAA...