DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 11500 DK - SP 11100 Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - HOU FD - 41.23 DK - 23.15 Well, we're looking at back to back days where we have to consider a right handed ace against a team we'd really rather not run right handed pitchers against. Cole is every bit the ace Verlander is, if not more. His 13.21 K/9 and 2.68 xFIP are both the very best in the Majors, and he's truly looking unstoppable right now. The only issue I have with this play is those pesky Angels. They own the 8th best wOBA against right handed pitching, and while a lot of that is bottled up in Mike Trout, they also strike out at the lowest rate in the bigs against northpaws. Still, when you have the best strikeout pitcher in the Majors, you don't sweat that sort of thing. I'd be content running Cole in any format. Kenta Maeda FD - P 6700 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - SD (Chris Paddack) Park - LAD FD - 32.84 DK - 17.42 It's a clear step down talent wise from Cole, of course, but it's a big jump down in price as well. And hey, you have to run two pitchers on DraftKings, am I right? I am not a big fan of Maeda's underlying skills this year. While he's still striking out more than a batter per inning, he's striking out two fewer guys per nine than he was last year. He's also seen a decrease in his ground-ball rate, and his 4.41 xFIP is below league average. All that being said, the match-up and park are good enough here that you're not just going to turn your back. The Padres have gotten some inspired performances from Tatis Jr. and Machado (since June), but they still own the league's highest strikeout rate against righties with a bottom 10 wOBA. Maeda just can't have as much upside as Cole based on their profiles, but he's a fine option in a world where there's no such thing as a sure thing. Also considered: Robbie Ray, for upside. Catcher/First Base Wilson Ramos FD - C 2500 DK - C 4200 Opponent - PHI (Jake Arrieta) Park - NYM FD - 9.91 DK - 7.61 I'm not fan of having to play catchers, but if you absolutely must you can run Ramos. He's posting a career...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/5/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/5/19 The All-Star break is literally days away and now's the time to get in some lineups before we have to go without baseball for three days. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Friday's are always the best day of the week and it's always fun to have nearly every team playing between a three-hour span. With that in mind, it's hailing ferociously in Denver right now and probably destroying my car, so be sure to check weather forecasts prior to submitting lineups. PitchersClayton Kershaw FD - P 10200 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - LADFD - 35.1 DK - 19.06Kershaw is easily the safest pitching on the board and it's really not indicative in his price. His 3.23 ERA and 1.07 WHIP shows why he's such a good option, as that's actually higher than his career averages. What's really impressive about Kershaw is his floor, with the southpaw throwing at least six innings in all 14 starts this season. That has allowed him to score at least 26 FanDuel points in all but one game, which is an incredible floor. Facing San Diego is simply the icing on the cake, with the Padres sitting 27th in K rate, 25th in OBP and 24th in xwOBA. That's why Kershaw is a -200 favorite in this game, as his 2.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 36 starts against the Padres only adds to his upside. Julio Teheran FD - P 7500 DK - SP 6600 Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - ATLFD - 31.45 DK - 16.42It's hard to recommend Teheran with his recent play but there's a lot to like here. While he's struggled mightily over his last three starts, Teheran actually pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his first 15 appearances. That prior form paired with this matchup makes Teheran tough to fade, as he should cruise right through this lineup. In two starts against Miami this season, Teheran has pitched 12 scoreless innings while allowing just seven baserunners. That's really no surprise when you consider the fact that the Marlins rank bottom-two in runs scored, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That doesn't even take into consideration that the Braves are a -195 favorite in this game. While he's been dreadful, our projection system loves Aaron Sanchez against a bad offense like the Orioles. Catcher/First BaseJustin Smoak FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 3700 Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - TORFD - 12.4 DK - 9.27This guy...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/4/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/4/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Brandon Woodruff FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN FD - 33.38 DK - 17.76 We have a very interesting Independence Day ahead of us with so many different slates but for the early slate, I am looking at Brandon Woodruff as my top option. After spending most of 2018 in the bullpen, he is back as a full-time starter for the Brewers and has been tremendous with a 10-2 record backed up by a 3.79 ERA/3.38 xFIP and 29% K rate. Despite pitching in Great American today, he gets a plus matchup against a bottom 10 Reds offense that has been worse against righties with a .303 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and 24 % K rate. It comes down to price as he is sub $10K on both sites and my top pitcher in all formats. Also Consider: Anibal Sanchez(WAS) for the very early slate in a great matchup against the Marlins Main Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 10800 DK - SP 11100 Opponent - SD (Dinelson Lamet) Park - LAD FD - 40.11 DK - 22.13 Ryu is coming off his worst start of the season and it came in Coors where even the most elite pitchers are getting beat up. Speaking of elite status, Ryu leads the league with an eye-popping 1.83 ERA and backs it up with the third-best xFIP(3.06) as well. He is finding a ton of success with an above average fastball(42% usage) and elite changeup(29% usage) that opponents have hit just .185 on and is also producing an elite 18.8% swinging strike rate. The matchup is definitely not jumping off the page as the Padres have been better lately overall and have also been better against lefties but the upside is there as they do strike out(25.6%) much more in the split. The other options on this small slate don't really pop for me so I will a ton of exposure to Ryu in all formats. Also Consider: Lance Lynn(TEX) Catcher/First Base Early Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 4100 DK - 1B 4600 Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - PIT FD - 12.73 DK - 9.59 Jason Castro FD - C 2600 DK - C 3800 Opponent - OAK (Tanner Anderson) Park - OAK FD - 8.54 DK - 6.45 If you have the salary on the early slate, Josh Bell is the easy play but...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/3/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/3/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Chris Sale FD - P 11200 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - TOR (Undecided) Park - TOR FD - 43.33 DK - 25.05 It has been a love/hate relationship with Chris Sale this season. I absolutely love the K upside as he has tallied double-digit totals in nine of his last 11 starts but hate that he gets touched up at times and has given up six or more hits in three straight vs. the Orioles, these Blue Jays, and the White Sox. The young Jays lineup has been much better lately but still striking out 24% of the time over the last 14 days and are well below average against lefties with a .303 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and 24% K rate in the split. The price is near its peak for the season on both sites but Sale is arguably the best pitcher on the slate(honorable mention to Buehler & Strasburg) and should be considered in all formats. John Means FD - P 8600 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - TB FD - 23.3 DK - 11.58 For value on the slate, I will once again turn to John Means who is having an incredible start to the season and will represent the Orioles at the All-Star game. He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 13 starts(3, 3, 4 in the other three starts) and he appears to be massively overperforming(2.50 ERA/5.14 xFIP) not all regression stats agree. Looking at the Baseball Savant data, you can quickly see why I don't think he will regress as much. He is allowing a low 87.5 mph exit velo(272nd), 32% hard contact rate, and even the xwOBA only sits at .306 on the season and it comes down to his elite changeup that he throws 27% of the time. I will be using him as my SP2 in all formats on DraftKings and if you like to load up on bats, he can also be considered in all formats on FanDuel(I prefer GPP tonight). Also Consider: Walker Buehler(LAD) as a GPP pivot in the top tier or Yonny Chirinos(TB) as another value option Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 5200 Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - PHI FD - 13.88 DK - 10.52 Coors Field slates tend to make things interesting from an ownership standpoint, especially when there have been 82...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/2/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/2/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This is one of the most fascinating slates of the season, as we have a ton of great arms and an abundance of dangerous bats facing weak pitching. That means it's going to be a high-scoring night, so hopefully, we can get you some of the pieces that will be key to a GPP takedown. PitchersMatthew Boyd FD - P 10000 DK - SP 10100 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHWFD - 34.89 DK - 19.25Boyd is probably my best bet on the slate to reach double-digit Ks and he's simply too cheap in this $10,000-range. While his 3.72 ERA is nothing special, his 1.09 WHIP and 31 percent K rate are. Those numbers would indicate that his ERA has some positive regression headed his way and it could start against the White Sox. Chicago currently ranks 23rd in K rate and 25th in runs scored. That's why Boyd enters this game as a rare road favorite, with the White Sox projected for only four runs.Patrick Corbin FD - P 10600 DK - SP 11100 Opponent - MIA (Zac Gallen) Park - WSHFD - 35.31 DK - 19.09We always want to target pitchers against the Marlins, especially when it's an ace like Corbin. We're talking about a guy with a 3.34 ERA and 1.09 WHIP dating back to last season which pairs beautifully with a 29 percent K rate. Those numbers put him in consideration against pretty much anyone but especially Miami. The Marlins currently rank 29th in runs scored and dead-last in both xwOBA and OPS. Vegas agrees with this assessment, making Corbin a -220 favorite with Miami projected for less than four runs. Some other pitchers we're considering are Trevor Bauer vs. KC, Jack Flaherty vs. SEA, and David Price vs. TORCatcher/First BaseDaniel Murphy FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4600 Opponent - HOU (Jose Hernandez) Park - COLFD - 14.99 DK - 11.51With a game being played in Coors Field, that means we have to recommend some Rockies. Murphy is actually a decent value too, as you rarely see a good hitter in Coors Field being priced below $3,500 on FanDuel. What we like about Murphy is his recent form, with the Rockies lefty providing a .350 AVG and .505 SLG over his last 27 games. That's the stud hitter that we've become accustomed to and his .905 OPS against righties since 2016 only adds to his value. Matt Beaty FD - 1B 2400...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/1/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/1/19 The calendar turns over to July and we have a smaller Monday slate of baseball action. Things could get a little dicey here with plenty of bad arms, some bullpen starters, hitters' parks and more. But we've got you covered for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD 10200 DK 10200 Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - BALFD - 35.42 DK - 19.6 Morton should take the mound after opener Ryne Stanek on Monday and would make for easily the best starting pitcher going on this shorter Monday slate. He’s actually improved on the numbers he started putting up with the Astros last season with the Rays. Morton is striking out 10.8 batters per nine, but has the walks to right around three per nine and the xFIP at 3.31. He’s still an elite roundball guy (52%) and will face an Orioles team ranked 25th in wOBA against righty pitching this season with a 23% strikeout rate. This should be an easy spot for Morton compared to the rest of the position. Update: Morton won't be starting here. Will update article shortly. Logan Allen FD 9300 DK 9200 Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - SFFD - 31.74 DK - 15.86 Allen’s first two starts haven’t been as good as the 1.38 ERA would suggest, but they’ve been acceptable and he’s definitely in play on this moderate disaster of a Monday slate. Allen has flashed very solid strikeout numbers in the minors over the last few seasons though they haven’t totally translated in the smaller, 13-inning, sample size so far in the bigs. That being said, I think the K’s do come around and he’s facing a Giants team ranked dead last in wOBA against lefties. They strike out 24% of the time in this split with no real hope for improvement going forward. Allen opens as a -163 home favorite against the lowly Giants and should serve as a solid SP2 option on DK and FD pivot off of Morton. Some will want to go Mike Minor but dude is crazy expensive and in a bad park. Catcher/First Base Yasmani Grandal FD 3600 DK 4900 Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - CINFD - 12.06 DK - 9 Eric Thames FD 2800 DK 4900 Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - CINFD - 10.45 DK - 7.84 With Grandal as the new leadoff hitter for the Brewers when they face righties, we...