DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/16/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/16/19 This is one of the highest projected slates of the season, as we have numerous teams projected for more than five runs. That should make for a fascinating day when picking hitters and it will be imperative to hit on every single one of them. With that in mind, there's rain projected all throughout the country, so check in on that before submitting lineups. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! PitchersJack Flaherty FD - P 7700 DK - SP 7400 Opponent - PIT (Dario Agrazal) Park - STLFD - 34 DK - 18.4It's hard to recommend a guy who's pitching so poorly but Flaherty is way too good to be priced this cheaply. We're still talking about a borderline ace who has a 1.15 career WHIP and K rate just shy of 30 percent. Those are the numbers you'd usually see from a $9,000 player and it's clear that these DFS sites are overreacting to his recent slide. Facing Pittsburgh is nothing we need to worry about either, with the Pirates sitting 18th in both runs scored and xwOBA. We also anticipate Flaherty getting a win in this game, as he's likely to enter this matchup as a -160 favorite. Logan Allen FD 8300 DK 9200 Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIAFD - 31.46 DK - 15.84 Chris Paddack had been scheduled to start, but he's pushed back to Wednesday and Logan Allen will get the nod here. It's no matter because the opponent is still Miami and anytime that's case we need to at least consider the starting pitcher. The Marlins rank second to last in the league against lefties in wOBA this season (nice work Tigers) and strike out 23% of the time in that split. Allen doesn't have overwhelming peripherals in terms of the strikeouts since hitting the majors, but he profiled as a K guy at nearly every stop in the minors. I'm liking the price and matchup more than anything else here and do think there's some room for growth with the swings and misses. Catcher/First BaseJoc Pederson FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B/OF 4500 Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - PHIFD - 14.18 DK - 10.62This FanDuel price is amazing and it's hard to fade him over there. The main reason why is because Pederson typically bats leadoff for the Dodgers against a righty. Not only are the Dodgers projected for more than five runs in this hitter's park, Pederson is providing...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/15/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/15/19 Monday's MLB action brings us something of a shorter slate of action all things considered. Some ace-level pitchers find themselves in tougher matchups and we may be stacking only a couple of teams in cash games. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Lucas Giolito FD - P 9100 DK - SP 11200 Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KCFD - 37.98 DK - 19.63 After rolling through the better part of the season as one of the surprise arms of the summer, Giolito’s struggled in two of his last four games. Both against the Cubs, he allowed 6 ER in each while failing to get through the fifth inning. In the short term, the last five or so starts, walks have caught up Giolito and he’s issued 16 free passes in the last 24 innings. But the strikeouts are still there and he’s putting down close to 11 batters per nine over the season. On Monday, he’s a -130 road favorite against the Royals who rank 22nd in the league against righties in wOBA this season with a 23% strikeout rate. He’s a little expensive on DraftKings, but the FanDuel price works fine considering the strikeout upside and opponent. It’s also worth noting that the other ace-level arms on Monday are almost to a man in very tough matchups. James Paxton FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - NYYFD - 33.74 DK - 18.48 Paxton has had a few rough outings since the beginning of June with three of his seven starts surrendering four or more runs with strikeouts three or less. But he turned things around completely last time out against these very same Rays with 11Ks in six innings. On the season, he’s still striking more than 11 batters per nine, though the walks are a bit more of an issue than they’ve ever been for him before. It’s that part of his game, plus the aforementioned flux around his outings that have him coming on the cheaper side for his skill set. I don’t love the matchup or park, but man it’s tough to get this kind of strikeout upside for less than 10K on FanDuel and DraftKings. I think that’s where I ultimately land on my willingness to roster Paxton despite some of the downside. Catcher/First Base Joc Pederson FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B/OF 4200 Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - PHIFD -...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/14/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/14/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This is our first Sunday back from the All-Star break and these always make for fascinating slates. What I love about Sunday slates is that we get pretty much every team playing between 1ET and 4ET. That makes things so much easier on us and that's all we can ask for as DFS players. We do have a Coors Field game and Reynaldo Lopez taking the mound, so you know what that means! We prioritized Coors at the expense of pitchng last night and got a 26 run game, but can we go back to the well today? Let's find out.PitchersJustin Verlander FD - P 10500 DK - SP 12200 Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - TEXFD - 41.22 DK - 23.88We're going big with our two starting pitchers. The simple fact is, Verlander is one of the best pitchers of my generation and he's in the midst of yet another stellar season. That's evident by his 2.98 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 153 Ks. Those are easily some of the best numbers in the league and it really makes him attractive against a Rangers club who owns the worst K rate in the Majors. Pitching in Globe Life Park certainly isn't easy, but you're getting Verlander at a discount, and he does have a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 career WHIP against Texas. Not to mention, he enters this game as a -220 favorite.Jacob deGrom FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10800 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIAFD - 40.69 DK - 22.91deGrom is easily my favorite play on the board and he should roll right through this cupcake lineup. Let's start with deGrom, who currently ranks top-three in ERA, xFIP and WHIP dating back to last season. He also has a K rate approaching 32 percent in that span, and he's truly one of the most dominant aces in the game. Facing this offense is a treat too, with the Marlins ranking 29th in runs scored and dead-last in OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That doesn't even take into consideration that deGrom is a -210 favorite, with Marlins Park being the one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. Masahiro Tanaka is a good pitcher two option on DraftKings as a projected -240 favorite against a bad Blue Jays offense. Catcher/First BaseJoey Votto FD - 1B 3700 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COLFD - 16.07 DK - 12.04Votto deserves more credit than he's getting...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/13/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/13/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Chris Sale FD - P 10700 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - LAD (Ross Stripling) Park - BOS FD - 38.36 DK - 22.05 The people who have stuck with us throughout this DFS MLB season aren't going to be thrilled with this one, possibly. Sale's 4.05 ERA is the worst of his career, and he's seen a decline in each of his major stats this year. But this is where stats can be a little bit deceiving. While his strikeouts are down a bit, his 12.87 K/9 is still the second best in the Majors among starting pitchers. While his 2.19 BB/9 is higher than last year, it's still the 23rd lowest among starters. His 3.12 xFIP is worse than last year's, but it's still good for the 5th best in the Majors. All this to say, Chris Sale is still pretty damned good. The match-up with the Dodgers is far from ideal - they have the 9th best wOBA vs. lefties this year and are about league average when it comes to striking out. Still, Sale is a -165 favorite with the 2nd best strikeout stuff in the Majors, and our system sees him as a cash game play particularly because his prices are still too low. Jake Odorizzi FD - P 8900 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - CLE (Trevor Bauer) Park - CLE FD - 34.17 DK - 18.25 I mulled over what to do about this pitcher two slot for a while before deciding on Odorizzi, so let's take a look at why this felt like such a tough decision. First, the good bits. Odorizzi has actually increased his K/9 to an elite 9.74 while bringing his BB/9 down to a respectable 3.05. His 3.15 ERA is a career best. The problem is that he's still rocking a mid-4s xFIP on account of his absurdly low 30.9% ground ball rate, which is good for the second lowest in the Majors. What this means is that you'll get some pretty hit or miss starts with Odorizzi. When those fly balls land in gloves he's going to look incredible, but when they clear the wall he'll look pretty pedestrian. I hesitate to recommend him for cash games for just this reason, but it's hard to argue with this price on DraftKings. The Indians are a stock league average match-up, with exactly the 15th best wOBA against righties and a below...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/12/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/12/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!We're back at it ladies and gentlemen! After a few days off, we're back to full-on baseball. After the All-Star break, we usually get set rotations with aces all across the board but that's not the case here. Many managers are actually using backend starters and that makes for a fascinating slate. PitchersDomingo German FD 8600 DK 10100 Opponent - TOR (Aaron Sanchez) Park - TORFD - 35.34 DK - 19.04The pitching options on this slate are very questionable but German is definitely one of the safest options on the board. The reason for that is because German was one of the best pitchers in the AL prior to an injury. In fact, German pitched to a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his first 10 starts while striking out 57 batters across 55.1 innings of action. His last start coming off the IL shows that he’s fully healthy too, with German allowing one run and just five base runners across six innings of action. Getting to face Toronto is simply the icing on the cake, with the Blue Jays ranking 22nd in runs scored, 23rd in K rate and 27th in OBP. Caleb Smith FD 8000 DK 8600 Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYMFD - 38.67 DK - 21.18Smith is actually my favorite pitching option on the board because of his sky-high floor. In fact, Smith has at least six Ks and 30 FanDuel points in 11 of his 13 starts this season while pitching at least five innings of 12 of those outings. That's all you can ask for from someone in the $8,000-range, especially a dude pitching in the best pitcher's park in the Majors. At Marlins Park this season, Smith is pitching to a 1.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while generating an 11.7 K/9 rate. Not to mention, the Mets rank 18th in runs scored and 17th in K rate. Catcher/First BasePaul Goldschmidt FD 3200 DK 3800 Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - ARIFD - 12.59 DK - 9.48Goldschmidt has been really bad for his standards this season but it's lowered his price to this tempting number. We're still talking about a hitter with career averages around a .400 wOBA, .210 ISO and .400 OBP. He's simply one of the best pure hitters in the game and it's just a matter of time before Goldy gets hot. The reason we like him here is because he gets to face a lefty, with Goldy posting a .995 OPS against...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/7/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/7/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This is the final DFS slate before the All-Star break, so let's end the first-half strong. What is interesting about this day is that we might see some players resting, so be sure to check in on all the lineups to avoid any critical mistakes.PitchersDavid Price FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - DET (Gregory Soto) Park - DETFD - 37.42 DK - 20.17The pitching selections aren't pretty on this slate but Price is a nice value (no pun intended). The reason we really like him here is because of his recent form, with the Boston lefty pitching to a 2.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three starts. That's all you can ask for from a guy in such a good matchup, with the Tigers holding the 6th highest K rate and the 4th lowest wOBA against left handed pitchers. That's one of the major reasons why Price enters this game as a -275 favorite. Ross Stripling FD - P 6600 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - LADFD - 29.69 DK - 15.95Stripling just re-entered the starting rotation for the Dodgers due to a Rich Hill injury and we're going to keep betting on him until he gets above $8,000 on both sites. The reason for that is because Stripling is generating a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP dating back to the start of last season. Stripling has been even better at home, providing a 2.46 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home for his career. He's doing that while striking out more than a batter per-inning and that doesn't even take into consideration that he pitches for one of the best lineups in baseball in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments. San Diego is a fantastic match-up too, with the Padres ranking 25th in runs scored and 27th in K rate. Not to mention, Stripling enters this game as a -165 favorite. He's a great value option if you play an all day slate today.Our projection system also loves Patrick Corbin as a -245 favorite against a bad offense like the Kansas City Royals. Catcher/First BaseJoey Votto FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3900 Opponent - CLE (Trevor Bauer) Park - CINFD - 11.35 DK - 8.51Votto has quietly been one of the hottest hitters in the league over recent weeks and the price simply hasn't caught up to his production. Over his last 33 games, Votto is hitting...