DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/15/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/15/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Sonny Gray FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9100 Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - CIN FD - 31.18 DK - 16.41 The options are somewhat limited on Thursday considering our top projected arms in Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith face each other in an afternoon matinee. That has me turning to Sonny Gray who leads all pitchers in raw projected points on the main slate. It makes sense as he has been terrific for the Reds all season with a 3.10 ERA and 3.63 xFIP backing it up. He is also coming off two of his best starts of the season allowing just six combined hits, no earned runs, and 14 strikeouts against the Cubs and Braves. He now gets a plus matchup against a Cardinals team that is really struggling lately with an ugly .292 wOBA, 79 wRC+, and .131 ISO over the last 14 days. All things considered, Gray is my top pitcher in all formats tonight. Andrew Heaney FD - P 6400 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - LAA FD - 31.6 DK - 16.82 Heaney made his return last Sunday after missing almost a month and looked pretty good holding the red-hot Red Sox to just three hits and one earned run over 3.2 innings. The one run also came on two hit batters and a sac fly which had Heaney pulled at 74 pitches. That is good news as we likely see him get over 90 tonight in a plus matchup against the White Sox who are just league average vs. lefties(101 wRC+) but do strike out 24% of the time in the split. Outside of yesterday's outburst, the White Sox have been the league's worst offense in the second with just 113 runs and an ugly .277 wOBA, 71 wRC+, and 27% K rate. Heaney's price seems a bit high on DraftKings which makes him a nice GPP pivot off Gray but FanDuel is where I am concentrating my exposure as he is just $6,400 and gives us an opportunity to absolutely load up on bats. Also Consider: Alex Young(ARI) facing a Giants team that is near the bottom of the league against lefties(.291 wOBA, 79 wRC+) Catcher/First Base Danny Santana FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B/OF 4900 Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - TEX FD - 10.03 DK - 7.68 While the Rangers have struck out...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/14/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/14/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Wade Miley FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW FD - 31.96 DK - 16.52 The early slate is loaded with offensive power so instead of going with one of the top tier options at pitcher, I will be turning to Wade Miley as my top option. He has been a picture of consistency all season as he has allowed more than three earned in a start just twice(both 4 ER) in 24 starts while averaging just shy of six innings per start. He has been even better lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts(2.03 ERA) and now gets another premiere matchup against a White Sox team that has been dreadful since the All-Star break with a .277 wOBA, 71 wRC+, .115 ISO, and 27% K rate, all of which rank dead last. All things considered, Miley is an excellent play in all formats and gives us some need salary relief to fit some top bats in our lineups in all formats. Also Consider: J.A. Happ(NYY) in a plus matchup against the Orioles or Cal Quantrill(SD) Main Clayton Kershaw FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - MIA FD - 41.36 DK - 22.61 Kershaw comes at a premium price tonight but I will most definitely be paying up as he checks almost every single box. Let's first look at his form as he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts and has found his swing and miss stuff as well with nine or more strikeouts in four of those six starts. That stretch of elite pitching has pushed him up to sixth overall with 2.77 ERA that is backed up by a 3.57 xFIP. He now gets an elite matchup against a Marlins team who hasn't been as bad as the White Sox since the break but pretty close ranking bottom in wOBA(.294), wRC+(83), ISO(.156), and K rate(24.7%). The Dodgers are huge favorites on the road and Kershaw is easily in the best spot and well worth the spend up tonight in all formats. Also Consider: Marco Gonzalez(SEA) who has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and now gets a plus matchup against the Tigers bottom three offense Catcher/First Base Early...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/13/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/13/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This is one of those slates where you need to check the weather! We have rain forecasted in half of these games and it's going to be a nightmare if you don't understand the forecasts prior to submitting lineups. With that in mind, let's get to some of our best value plays for Tuesday!PitchersBrendan McKay FD - P 8000 DK - SP 8100 Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SDFD - 29.82 DK - 15.56This is a relatively easy pick at these prices. Let's start with McKay's absurd minor league numbers, with the southpaw generating a 1.15 ERA and 0.82 WHIP at Triple-A this season. Those ridiculous numbers are backed up by a K rate north of 35 percent and it's simply impossible to argue with those sort of statistics. While he hasn't been quite that good at the Majors, a 3.76 xFIP and 1.21 WHIP isn't too shabby. What adds to his intrigue here is that he gets to face an NL lineup in a pitcher's park. It happens to be a weak lineup too, with the Padres ranked 23rd in runs scored, 27th in K rate and 23rd in OBP.Domingo German FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - NYYFD - 38.26 DK - 20.77German is quietly having a great year for the Yankees and it's always worth considering pitchers against the Orioles. Let's start with this matchup, as Baltimore currently sits 21st in K rate, 26th in runs scored, 25th in OBP, 26th in OPS and 28th in xwOBA. That's scary against a pitcher like German, who's 15-2 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He's also got a 4.02 xFIP and 26 percent K rate, as he's done that damage while navigating through some tough opponents recently. In three starts against the Orioles this season, German is 3-0 and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any one of them. There are a number of good pitching options on this slate. Gerrit Cole (FD $11800 DK $12700) is crazy expensive, but is also a massive -330 road favorite against the woeful White Sox. Matthew Boyd (FD $10400 DK $10300) is also in a great spot against the Mariners and has been awesome this season. Catcher/First BaseDaniel Murphy FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - ARI (Zac Gallen) Park - COLFD - 14.76 DK - 11.34These prices are truly shocking. How often do...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/12/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/12/19 Monday's baseball action brings us a game in Coors with a predictably monster total, plus some other offenses in good spots. It's pitching that could get a little tricky. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Zack Greinke FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHWFD - 37.66 DK - 20.5 In his first start in an Astros uniform Greinke was underwhelming, going six innings, allowing five earned runs and striking out only two batters. Houston has a history of taking pitchers and then making them way better than any previous iteration. I’m going to air on the side of the team here. Greinke’s strikeouts had declined this season but he’s also exhibiting pinpoint control, walking only 1.36 batters per nine on the season. Greinke opens as a -250 road favorite against a White Sox team striking out 27% of the time against righties and ranked third to last in wOBA in that split. On a shorter Monday slate, Greinke ranks as the top overall pitching option on both sites. Jose Suarez FD - P 5700 DK - SP 7900 Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - LAAFD - 25.67 DK - 13.1 Monday’s main slate offers very few solid pitching options that you’d have any faith throwing into a cash game. So we are going to need to make some concessions around *comfort* when it comes to some of these plays after Greinke. Good news first on Suarez: he’s striking out about a batter an inning in his starts and on Monday gets the best matchup you can get as a lefty arm. The Pirates rank dead last in wOBA in that platoon and strike out 23% of the time. He’s also a -144 home favorite. The bad news is he isn’t all that good of a pitcher. But he’s coming really, really cheap and that could matter when it comes to stacking the hell out of Coors. Catcher/First Base Daniel Murphy FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4400 Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - COLFD - 15.51 DK - 11.91 While overall it’s been a rather rough season for the Rockies and Murphy, them getting this game back in Coors has us buoyed for their chances at offensive success on Monday. On the season, Murphy has a .381 wOBA and .910 OPS at home even though only two of his 11 home runs have come in the park....
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/11/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/11/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!It's Sunday and that always makes for a fun slate. What really makes it interesting is the fact that we have many divisional games occurring. That makes these finals games of the series imperative, as it will be one of the final times to gain a game on their counterparts. That means all the studs should show out and that's all we can ask for as DFS players. PitchersJustin Verlander FD - P 12500 DK - SP 12400 Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BALFD - 46.89 DK - 27.12Using Justin Verlander is always a good idea, particularly in a matchup like this. Let's start with the Orioles, as they simply have one of the worst offenses in baseball. That's evident by the fact that they rank 21st in K rate, 26th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, 25th in OPS and 28th in xwOBA. That's truly frightening against a stud like Verlander, who's pitching to a 2.68 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while striking out 206 batters. That's why he enters this matchup as a -380 favorite, which is one of the highest money lines all season. Lucas Giolito FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10600 Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - CHWFD - 35.12 DK - 18.12Finding a second pitcher was a tough task on this slate but it's hard to argue with a guy having a breakout season. Giolito is doing just that, as he's generating a 3.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while whiffing 158 batters. What's really impressive about Giolito is how much his swing-and-miss stuff continues to improve, with Gio striking out at least seven batters in four-straight games. That's huge against a righty-heavy offense like this, with Oakland throwing out guys like Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Stephen Piscotty. He's a good pitcher two on DraftKings and an interesting upside play on FanDuel as well.Catcher/First BasePaul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - STLFD - 14.13 DK - 10.64Goldy has been disappointing for season-long fantasy players but he's too good of a player to be priced this cheaply. We're talking about a guy who has a .426 OBP, .585 SLG and 1.011 OPS against left-handers for his career. Those are simply absurd numbers and his recent form only adds to his intrigue. Over his last 16 games, Goldy has seven homers and 15 RBI en route to a 1.000 OPS. This...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/10/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/10/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Patrick Corbin FD - P 9800 DK - SP 11200 Opponent - NYM (Noah Syndergaard) Park - NYM FD - 37.35 DK - 20.49 Two of the best pitchers on the main slate are unfortunately facing one another tonight, and while Vegas sees this as essentially a pick 'em, our projection system seems to prefer Corbin. It's not too difficult a case to make, as the left handed Corbin strikes out far more batters en route to an xFIP .3 better than Syndergaard's number. In spite of the Mets' recent hot streak, it's still not a terrible match-up. Many of the Mets' best hitters (Cano, Conforto, McNeil) are left handed, and getting them on the worse side of their platoon is meaningful here. Jake Odorizzi FD - P 8000 DK - SP 8800 Opponent - CLE (Adam Plutko) Park - MIN FD - 29.04 DK - 15.45 We're getting some great prices on Odorizzi here, who's become something of a darling for our projection system in the last few months. For starters, he's very obviously affordable, which is often all we really need to run him out there in the pitcher two slot. He also possesses some strong skills for fantasy purposes - he's striking out more batters than ever while walking fewer than ever, and posting a solid 3.61 ERA. xFIP would have you believe he's quite a bit worse than this thanks to his perennial battle to be the league's most fly-ball heavy pitcher, but what it means for our purposes is that he's a high ceiling option with potential blowup risk. The Twins are modest -158 favorites against the Indians here, who present almost exactly a league average match-up for Odorizzi. I think he's a strong option on DraftKings, if too risk to mess with on FanDuel. Also considered: There is no line on this game at the moment, but Charlie Morton is in a great spot against the Mariners, who own the league's 5th highest K rate against right handed pitching. Depending on who starts for Seattle and where this line lands he could very well wind up being the best big money play on the slate. Also considered: Aaron Sanchez, if you believe that the Astros may have salvaged his career. Again, too expensive on FanDuel, but an interesting pitcher two option on DraftKings. Catcher/First Base Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3400 DK - C 4100 Opponent -...