DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/26/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/26/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Stephen Strasburg FD - P 10800 DK - SP 12200 Opponent - PHI (Jason Vargas) Park - WSH FD - 35.42 DK - 19.54 The options are limited today which makes paying up for the best pitcher the optimal route. This brings us to Stephen Strasburg on the early slate and while the Nats have locked up a playoff spot they are still trying to hold off the Brewers for the top Wildcard spot and home-field advantage in that one-game playoff. Strasburg has been terrific down the stretch posting a 1.80 ERA/2.84 xFIP over his last eight starts with a 32.4% K rate and 13.8% swinging-strike rate. He now faces a Phillies team that will miss the playoffs and have struggled down the stretch posting a .294 wOBA and 78 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Paying up for Strasburg is my top priority in all formats on the early slate. Also Consider: Luis Castillo(CIN) as a GPP pivot Main Zack Wheeler FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - NYM FD - 34.6 DK - 18.25 The main is one game smaller but has more pitching options with my favorite being Zack Wheeler who checks every box. The Mets appear to be facing elimination from playoff contention as I write this but not due to the effort put forward by Wheeler who has averaged around 6.5 innings per start over his last five while allowing just one earned run in each. He now gets a plus matchup against the Marlins who he has had a ton of success against and have recorded a 78 wRC+ and 25% K rate against right-handed pitching this season. Fire up Wheeler in all formats. Also Consider: Aaron Civale(CLE) if you are looking to spend up more on your bats Catcher/First Base Early Howie Kendrick FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B/2B 5200 Opponent - PHI (Jason Vargas) Park - WSH FD - 9.46 DK - 7.35 He has come off the bench in each of the last two games but should get back in the starting lineup today against a lefty. Over 122 plate appearances against southpaws this season, Kendrick has been elite hitting .372 with a .421 wOBA and 159 wRC+ and comes in with hits in six straight starts. The decision is a heck of a lot tougher on DraftKings where he is in the $5k...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/25/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/25/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane Bieber FD - P 11500 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW FD - 45.77 DK - 25.37 Figuring out pitching down the stretch has been a challenge with teams who have clinched with no need to push players and teams out of the running looking to avoid unnecessary injuries. Good news for us tonight is that Cleveland falls right in the middle with a ton to play for as they are in a tight race with the Rays and A's for the final two wildcard spots. The price has actually come down after his last start where he held the Phillies to two earned runs and added seven strikeouts and no walks. He has been impressive all season with a 3.23 ERA and matching 3.23 xFIP to back it up and in a matchup against the White Sox as a -290 favorite, is in play in all formats. Jacob Waguespack FD - P 6100 DK - SP 6200 Opponent - BAL (Gabriel Ynoa) Park - TOR FD - 31.68 DK - 16.21 To fir Bieber and his near $12K price tag without going "all value" with the bats, we are going to need to dig deep for an SP2 and one that stands out is Jacob Waguespack of the Jays. He isn't going to go deep into games and his upside is limited(18.5% K rate) but he has recorded a 10%+ swinging-strike rate in three of his last four starts. He is also a -165 favorite against well below-average Orioles offense(I know they are putting up runs as I write this) and only needs about 10-14 DK points to hit his floor and he has done this in nine of his 15 appearances this season. Also Consider: Jon Lester(CHC) as a -190 favorite against the Pirates without their core bats Catcher/First Base Carlos Santana FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW FD - 13.12 DK - 9.78 Roberto Perez FD - C 2800 DK - C 3900 Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW FD - 10.03 DK - 7.57 Like I mentioned above, the Indians are in a battle for the final Wildcard spot and the offense is doing everything they can to get them there averaging over 6.5 runs per game over the last week. They are once again near the top of the...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/24/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/24/19 This time of the year is truly bizarre. We have pitching changes every day and wacky lineups being set by volatile managers, which causes mayhem for us. That's why it's important to do your own research because our information is from the day before. Things change quickly at this time of the year and it's imperative to focus in on any bits of news you find or nuggets that could give you an edge. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD 12300 DK 13000 Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - SEAFD - 42.25 DK - 24.13 It's going to be tough to fade Cole in this matchup. The simple fact is, we have a guy with a 39 percent K rate facing a club who ranks 28th in K's this season. That spells disaster for this terrible Seattle lineup, as they also rank bottom-10 in OBP and OPS since a fluky opening month. Cole has been downright absurd recently too, providing a 1.76 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 13.6 K/9 rate over his last 18 starts. That's one of many reasons why Cole and the Astros enter this matchup as a -420 favorite. Madison Bumgarner FD 8600 DK 8200 Opponent - COL (Jeff Hoffman) Park - COLFD - 34.49 DK - 18.82 There was a lot of skepticism surrounding Bumgarner at the beginning of the season and it’s hard to understand why now. He’s back at it this season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, doing a lot of that damage at home. In fact, Mad Bum has a 2.80 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at Oracle Park this season. That’s a recipe for disaster for the Rockies. Colorado ranks 29 in OBP on the road this season. In his two home starts against the Colorado this year, Bumgarner has allowed just three runs and 12 baserunners across 13 innings of action while striking out 18 batters. Catcher/First Base Mitch Moreland FD 3000 DK 4700 Opponent - TEX (Edinson Volquez) Park - TEXFD - 8.34 DK - 6.28 While we don't really like this DraftKings price, Moreland is going to be hard to fade on FanDuel. How crazy is it that someone with these splits is priced below $3,000. We're talking about a dude with a .554 SLG and .889 OPS against right-handed pitching. That's fantastic news in a stadium like Globe Life Park, which ranks as one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the league. Facing...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/23/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 9/23/19 The season is nearing an end, but Monday is still a very slow day with only five games on the schedule as teams prepare for the final push. This is the last week of the regular season and most teams are firmly out of contention. That can make things rather tricky considering the lack of motivation on many teams. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Steven Matz FD - P 8900 DK - SP 7600 Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - NYMFD - 32.02 DK - 16.45 Matt isn’t exactly a worldbeater, but we’ll take what we can get on this shorter slate. He’s facing a Marlins’ team ranked second-to-last on the season in wOBA against lefties and starting a number of callups down the stretch. Matz enters as the biggest moneyline odds favorite, -193 at home, and can strike out hitters at just under a K/9. With Blake Snell likely on another conservative pitch count returning from arm surgery, Matz comes as the cash game play for Monday at these prices. Patrick Corbin FD - P 10500 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - WSHFD - 37.03 DK - 20.32 If there’s enough savings in the bats, then it might make sense paying up for Corbin here. He doesn’t have quite the win odds (-171) or as good a matchup as Matz, but is the better arm. He has a 3.61 xFIP on the season and is striking out 10.6 batters per nine. The 8% walk rate is up a bit over his last couple of seasons and I don’t exactly love the matchup against the Phillies. But, in theory, Washington is still playing for something here as they work to secure the wildcard slot in the NL. At this point in the season, that kind of thing really matters considering so many teams just don’t have a single thing to play for. If you think Adam Wainwright (FD $9200 DK $8100) can in anyway maintain his recent form then he looks like a good play against the Diamondbacks. I’m a bit skeptical though and think he’s running a bit hot over the last four games. Catcher/First Base Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4500 Opponent - ARI (Alex Young) Park - ARIFD - 13.28 DK - 10 Goldschmidt’s season-long numbers don’t look all that impressive, but that has more to do with his struggles against righty arms. Against lefties,...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 9/22/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/22/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We're down to a week left in the regular season and this time of the year is truly impossible to predict. What makes it even more frustrating is the fact that managers are benching studs and changing rotations at will. While that does make it tough, it also opens up a boatload of value for us. With that in mind, let's get to our favorite pitcher of the day. Pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu FD 8100 DK 9500 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COLFD - 37.3 DK - 20.51 Ryu is in contention to land the NL Cy Young and that alone makes this price tag truly shocking in such a supreme spot. This matchup with the Rockies is sensational, with Colorado ranked 23rd in K rate, 28th in runs scored, 30th in OBP and 29th in OPS on the road. That's truly terrifying against a pitcher with a 2.35 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Ryu has been especially good at home, totaling a 1.77 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 rate at Dodgers Stadium this season. All of this has Ryu entering this matchup as a -350 favorite. Matthew Boyd FD 9100 DK 10500 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHWFD - 36.45 DK - 20.36 While Boyd has been struggling recently, we really like him in this spot. Getting to face the Tigers is the best match-up in baseball but the White Sox aren't far behind. In fact, Chicago currently ranks 25th in K rate, 23rd in xwOBA, 26th in runs scored, 24th in OBP, and 26th in OPS. That's bad news against one of the best strikeout pitchers in the Majors, with Boyd generating a 3.81 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP and 31 percent K rate. In his two starts against the White Sox this season, Boyd has struck out 22 batters across 11.1 innings, collecting at least 43 FanDuel points in both outings. We also love Luis Severino against a bad Blue Jays offense but he might see a limited pitch count with this being his second start off the IL. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD 4200 DK 4700 Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SFFD - 13.85 DK - 10.5 Freeman sat out on Saturday after celebrating an NL East title but he should be fully ready to go here. He earned every bit of that rest too, as he's currently one of the leading contenders for NL MVP. That's crystal clear when you see...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 9/21/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/6/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 7700 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - LAD FD - 35.94 DK - 19.76 After a tough stretch for Ryu where people were asking if he was cooked for the season, he rallied back with a masterful 7 IP 6K 2H 0BB 0 ER performance against the Mets in his last start. Now we are grabbing him at prices that assume he is done. It's funny how the clustering of certain instances can color our opinion of a pitcher. While the 4 BB start against Colorado was legitimately bad, the other two "bad" starts were mostly Ryu getting BABIP'd to death and getting chased from the game as a result. This is also a fantastic match-up. Don't let the Rockies' season long stats vs. LHP fool you - they have been the second worst team in all the Majors against left handed pitching this season when on the road, and this should be a spot where Ryu can thrive. Jose Berrios FD - P 9400 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN FD - 38.02 DK - 20.17 Pitching is just a little rough on the main slate today, but Berrios is still a plenty playable option here. He hasn't replicated last year's K numbers, but he's still going for more than 6 IP a start with almost a strikeout per inning. That's plenty of production on these prices, especially in a solid match-up with KC. The Royals have been the 5th worst team in terms of wOBA against righties this season, and that was before they filled the bottom of their lineup with underqualified minor leaguers. Berrios is also an astounding -310 favorite, making him an excellent option for any format here. Catcher/First Base Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3200 DK - C 4400 Opponent - PIT (James Marvel) Park - MIL FD - 12.56 DK - 9.37 "James," you might be wondering, "Who on Earth is James Marvel?" Truthfully, I had absolutely no idea before I started writing this article. What I learned was that he was a 26 year old non-prospect in the Pittsburgh farm system that was flexing a 5.04 xFIP in AAA this season before being called up and being much worse than that in his 9 Major League innings. All this to say, I like grabbing one of baseball's best switch-hitting...