DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 10/7/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 10/7/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We get another four-game slate on Wednesday with the new "no days off" playoff format. Let's get started by looking at some core plays at each position for FanDuel and DraftKings. Then head over and check out the projections and lineup optimizer and grab a copy of my cheatsheet. Pitcher Ian Anderson FD - P 9500 DK - SP 8200 Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - ATL FD - 39.22 DK - 21.14 Pitching is tough once again today but one name that stands out is rookie Ian Andreson. Even drafting him 3rd overall, I am not sure the Braves even expected to see him performing at this level so quickly as he posted a 1.95 ERA over six starts in the regular season and he was dominant against the Reds in the wildcard round allowing just two hits and striking out nine over six innings. The Marlins have proven to be an issue but do present on of the better matchups on this slate and with his price, Anderson is my top overall pitcher in all formats. Clayton Kershaw FD - P 10300 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - SD (Undecided) Park - LAD FD - 34.04 DK - 19.16 I am not overly thrilled with the matchup against the Padres here but Kershaw comes with a very fair price considering he has been dominant or close to it all season. While he isn't an elite K pitcher(28%), he has the second-highest rate on this slate and only walked 3.6% of batters he faced all season. He faced the Padres once in the regular season adn while he gave up three earned runs, he did strike out nine. I see this being another grind it out, low-scoring game putting Kershaw in the conversation as the top pitcher on this slate. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4200 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - ATL FD - 14.6 DK - 10.97 We had Freeman as a top play yesterday and while he let us down, we are going back to the well on the likely National League MVP. The Braves put up nine runs in game one and get one of the better matchups on this small playoff slate tonight and I just don't see the extremely consistent Freeman letting us down again. If paying up at the position, Freeman is the play today....
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 10/6/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 10/6/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Max Fried FD - P 8700 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATLFD - 33.48 DK - 17.61The Braves come in as -198 favorites over the Marlins on this slate, easily the best moneyline odds of the four-games. Don’t be completely fooled by the 2.25 ERA he sported during his 56 innings this season, the xFIP was in the low 4’s. He has some K stuff, putting down just over eight batters per inning which was down from what he did in 2019. He can get outs because he induced ground balls at a 55% rate this season with a very low 25% flyball rate. The Marlins, while a nice story, had the 21st ranked team xOBA this season and are the worst offense going on this slate. Fried’s price is right and he avoids some of the slate’s bigger bats. Framber Valdez FD - P 10000 DK - RP 8900 Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAKFD - 34.14 DK - 18.15Valdez was excellent in the shortened season, striking out more than a batter an inning and dramatically reducing his walk rate off his career averages. He had a sub-3 xFIP (2.94) which was better than the ERA. The A’s actually ranked 24th in the league against lefty arms this season with a team .301 wOBA in that split. Valdez is a slight +100 underdog here but he has decent K upside if he can hang around the game. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4200 DK - 1B 5400 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - ATLFD - 13.99 DK - 10.51Sandy Alcantara is getting to start another playoff game despite his team having a -41 run differential this season. He was *fine* in his first game in the first round, but this is very much just an average arm. Meanwhile Freeman crushed an 1.102 OPS this season and will be in the MVP discussion for sure. He walked more than he struck out (17% to 14%) and sported a .456 wOBA. Simply put, he’s one of the best hitters in the game and gets a somewhat choice playoff matchup on the mound here on Tuesday. As of this writing, San Diego still hadn’t announced who they were putting on the mound. Max Muncy (FD $3600 DK $4800) is coming cheaper on both sites considering pitching doesn’t cost a ton and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 10/5/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 10/5/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 10900 DK - SP 8600 Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - TB FD - 44.23 DK - 25.04 While Cole wasn't as dominant as he was in his final season with the Astros, he has been terrific in a shortened 2020 season helping the Yankees to the ALDS. He ended up holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 12 starts adn while he only did it once in three starts against the Rays he did strike out 36% of batters in that sample size. That K upside is what I am concentrating on in this matchup as the Rays struck out 27% of the time on the season and over 30% of the time over the past two weeks. The Yankees are -120 favorites to win the series and -140 favorites to take game now and Gerrit Cole is my fav pitcher to build around today in all formats. Chris Bassitt FD - P 8700 DK - SP 8100 Opponent - HOU (Lance McCullers Jr.) Park - OAK FD - 31.42 DK - 16.23 There is most definitely a case to be made for jamming both pitchers in the Yankees/Rays game as Snell is massively underpriced as an underdog. The other path and direction I am going is with a pitcher from both games to maximize on the win points. While not nearly as much K upside(21%) Bassitt has a solid season going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and was terrific in an elimination game against the White Sox holding them to one earned run over seven innings. I like the A's to win this series and it starts with game one on Monday. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 3600 Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - OAK FD - 8.71 DK - 6.67 This is a very tough slate to dissect but, for the most part, I will be focusing on the Astros/A's for bats. This pick is not for those with a weak stomach as Yuli was pretty terrible this season but does present a nice discount and on a two-gamer which we are going to need, especially if loading up on Cole. Also Consider: Matt Olson(OAK) as a boom or bust play with big power upside or Luke Voit(NYY) if paying up and going against Snell Second Base Tommy La...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 10/1/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 10/1/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Clayton Kershaw FD 9800 DK 9400 Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - MIL FD - 33.83 DK - 19.06 Pretty convenient for the Dodgers to have a former Cy Young(2011, 2013, 2014), and is in the conversation for another, as your game two starter. He ended up with 10 starts this season, going 6-2, and posted an elite 2.16 ERA/3.05 xFIP and also posted his highest K rate(28.8%) since 2017. He now faces a Brewers team that ranked 23rd in wOBA(.307) and 25th in wRC+(89) and struck out the 3rd most(26.6%) overall. All things considered, Kershaw gives us a high probability for the win in an uncertain playoff environment and also comes with a ton of upside vs. the Brewers. He is my top pitcher in all formats. Luis Castillo FD 10200 DK 8600 Opponent - ATL (Ian Anderson) Park - ATL FD - 34.93 DK - 18.26 Ian Anderson FD 9200 DK 7500 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN FD - 38.87 DK - 20.7 After watching the offenses combine for a whopping 37 strikeouts(40%) in game one, I feel both these pitchers are in play in game two. Let's start with Ian Anderson and the Braves who are -133 favorites in game two after taking game one 1-0 in extra innings. Despite a small sample size, Anderson was very impressive in his rookie season considering he is still 22-years-old. He held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts for a very impressive 1.95 ERA and he also recorded a 29% K rate. Even if the win isn't there, I think there is enough K's for him to pay off his price. On the other side of the game, we have Luis Castillo who was a little unlucky with the record(4-6) considering he posted a 3.21 ERA and even better 2.82 xFIP over 12 starts. Castillo was also dominant vs. righties holding them to a .221 average with a 35% K rate and the Braves appear to be running out at least six today. I lean Anderson for the savings in cash games but love the upside with Castillo here for GPP's. Catcher/First Base Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3000 DK - 1B/C 4200 Opponent - OAK (Undecided) Park - OAK FD - 9.54 DK - 7.08 The A's manager, Bob Melvin, is keeping his game three starter quiet at...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/30/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 9/30/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Walker Buehler FD - P 10000 DK - SP 8800 Opponent - MIL (Undecided) Park - LAD FD - 38.03 DK - 20.78 Buehler was limited in his last start of the regular season after returning from a blister issue but looked terrific holding the A's to just one hit over four innings while striking out six. He will get the start in game one for the Dodgers and is not only coming cheap(relative to what he cost all season) but gets arguably the best matchup on the slate. The Brewers limped into the playoffs losing five of their final eight games and are one of two teams in the playoffs with a sub .500 record. On top of that, they struck out a whopping 26% of the time this season, 27% against right-handed pitching. Buehler is my top pitcher on Wednesday in all formats. Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 8300 DK - SP 8100 Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - TB FD - 34.34 DK - 17.95 From a PTS/$ perspective, Ryu is right at the top of the ranks on both sites which is impressive as the jays are slight underdogs on Wednesday. For me, it comes down to the fact he is cheaper than Glasgow in this game and was arguably better in every area this season. He held opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 starts for a very impressive 2.69 ERA backed up by a 3.32 xFIP. He didn't flash the same upside as Glasgow in the strikeout department but the good news is that the Rays have struck out 30% of the time over the last two weeks and 28.5% of the time vs. lefties on the season. All things considered, I am expecting another low scoring game which has Ryu sitting as my favorite SP2 today. Catcher/First Base Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4400 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - CHC FD - 12.27 DK - 9.2 Jesús Aguilar FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 2900 Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC FD - 8.64 DK - 6.49 This game presents a bit of an opportunity and the Cubs currently sit second behind the Dodgers in implied runs so I will start with Rizzo. The first thing that stands out here is the price on DraftKings as he is...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Playoff Picks for Tuesday 9/28/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 9/28/20 The MLB playoffs are here and thigns kick off Tuesday with an AL-only, four-game slate. Let's go through the DraftKings and FanDuel plays. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Blake Snell FD 8300 DK 7800 Opponent - TOR (Hyun-Jin Ryu) Park - TORFD - 37.91 DK - 20.73 Snell enters the first day of the playoffs as the best money line favorite on the shorter slate. He was excellent in his 11 starts this season, striking out more than 11 batters per nine and keeping the xFIP at 3.06. There are still a few more walks than you like to see, but he’s a positive bargain on FanDuel as the sixth most expensive pitcher on the slate. The Blue Jays strike out 24% of the time against lefties this season though they did have a solid OPS in that split. That being said, with playoff teams we are looking for any edge because all of the matchups are rough. This is a good spot for Snell. Shane Bieber FD 11200 DK 9000 Opponent - NYY (Gerrit Cole) Park - NYYFD - 46.37 DK - 25.81 Bieber is second on this list only because of the price. Because every other number has been out of this world for the Indians’ ace this season. He led baseball in pitcher WAR, struck out more than 14 batters per inning and sported a 2.04 xFIP. Even when batters made contact (which wasn’t often) he induced a nearly 50% ground ball rate. Yes I get this is a terrible matchup against an excellent Yankees offense that finished 5th in team wOBA even with all of their injuries. But Bieber is also just the best pitcher in baseball right now and that’s always going to be a tough fade. Catcher/First Base Yasmani Grandal FD 2900 DK 4300 Opponent - OAK (Jesus Luzardo) Park - OAKFD - 9.72 DK - 7.21 Eloy Jiménez FD 3600 DK 4600 Opponent - OAK (Jesus Luzardo) Park - OAKFD - 9.71 DK - 7.39 It isn’t much, but the White Sox open with the third-highest implied run line on the slate against the lefty Luzardo. While a platoon neutral switch hitter for his career, Grandal was significantly better against lefties this season with a .905 OPS in around 40 plate appearances (I know, I know small sample size). But he should hit in the middle of the order and is reasonably priced on both sites. Meanwhile, Jimenez...