DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/15/20
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/15/20 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD - P 11000 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - LADFD - 38.22 DK - 20.86 Miami ranks in the bottom third of the league this season in offensive wOBA as a team putting Bauer in position to really go pretty far in this game. He’s a huge favorite going in and will make for a tough fade on the evening slate even at these high prices. He’s striking out 12 batters per nine on the season and has an xFIP in the low threes. Again, you are going to need to really spend up to roster Bauer here, but considering the matchup it makes all the sense in the world. Carlos Rodón FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - CHWFD - 38.41 DK - 20.75 Rodon has put it all together this season, showing off the upside many have been dreaming about for years from the lefty. He’s striking out batters at a 37% rate is rocking a 0.58 ERA even though the xFIP is about two runs higher. He’s throwing his fastball more and has reduced the slider use as well. He’s a -173 home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City ranks 22nd in the league in team wOBA on the season making this a good matchup for Rodon. He’s expensive, but it’s worth it on this slate. If you are looking to save some money on salary at pitcher, Ian Anderson (FD $8600 DK $9200) makes a reasonable option against the Brewers and their 26th ranked offense. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5500 Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - LADFD - 11.07 DK - 8.15 The Blue Jays haven’t announced their pitcher yet for Saturday’s game which typically these the opposing bats in a really good spot. That should be the case with the Dodgers. After a down 2020 campaign, Muncy is right back to raking this season with an OPS over .900 thanks to some power and an absurd 23% walk rate. That’s just the very definition of a cash game play on this slate. Alec Bohm FD 2400 DK 3200 Opponent - TOR (Anthony Kay) Park - TORFD - 10.42 DK - 7.97 Bohm has been moved down in the order thanks to a slow start but does draw the lefty Kay on this slate....
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/14/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/14/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Tyler Glasnow FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - NYM (David Peterson) Park - TB FD - 43.89 DK - 24.67 For the second day in a row, there is almost too much pitching on this slate, and while we are splitting hairs Tyler Glasnow is my favorite for a couple of reasons. It starts with the FanDuel price that sticks out like a sore thumb and even with a season-high price on DraftKings he tops my target list. It all comes down to the currency of strikeouts and how the sites are set up. While he has given up three earned runs and four walks in each of his last two starts, he has still given us a 2x return on DraftKings. The only risk here is the matchup against the red-hot Mets but floor/ceiling combination each and every time Glasnow steps on the mound is too much to pass up. Frankie Montas FD - P 7400 DK - SP 7000 Opponent - MIN (Matt Shoemaker) Park - MIN FD - 31.4 DK - 16.44 Getting one of those elite pitchers on DraftKings is made much easier with the value on this slate and no one stands out more than Frankie Montas. He hits a season-low price on DraftKings while producing 13 or more DK points in five of his last six games and 20+ in three of them. Two bad starts(6 & 7 ER) have inflated his ERA(5.50) but the good news is that the xFIP(4.18) is over a run better and he also faces a struggling Twins team that has dropped four straight and seven of their last eight games. There are more expensive options with more upside tonight but Montas is my favorite PTS/$ SP2 tonight if you want to upgrade those bats. Also Consider: Max Scherzer(WSH) on DraftKings as the second most expensive option facing a D-backs team that has been much more productive vs. lefties. For value, I also like Joe Musgrove(SDP) who leads the slate with a 2.35 xFIP and faces a Cards team that has tallied just a 70 wRC+ over the last seven days. Catcher/First Base Mike Moustakas FD - 2B 4000 DK - 1B/3B 4400 Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL FD - 12.58 DK - 9.43 Moose isn't first base eligible on FanDuel but that's fine as I am much more interested on DraftKings...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 5/13/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 5/13/21 Like most Thursdays, we have games spread throughout the day. We actually have a day slate that features five games, while the nightcap has six games on the docket. That means we're going to focus on the night slate beginning at 7ET, with many West Coast teams taking the field. That happens to be my specialty, though, so let's go ahead and get into it! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Cristian Javier FD - P 9200 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - HOU FD - 32.8 DK - 16.83 Javier doesn't pop up too high in our projection system, but he's still the best raw play on the board. We say that because he's been the best pitcher of this player pool and has one of the best matchups. Let's kick things off by talking about his opposition. The Rangers currently rank 20th in xwOBA and 23rd in K rate, posting some of the worst offensive numbers in MLB. That puts any pitcher in play against them, especially a guy like Javier. The right-hander has a 2.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the season, striking out 38 batters across 31 innings of action. All of that has Javier and the Astros entering this matchup as a -200 favorite if you need any more incentive. Zach Plesac FD - P 8400 DK - RP 8300 Opponent - SEA (Logan Gilbert) Park - SEA FD - 40.74 DK - 21.69 Plesac had a terrible two-start stretch against the White Sox earlier in the season but has been practically unhittable aside from that. In fact, he's got a 1.31 ERA and 0.79 WHIP across his other six starts. That's the stud we saw throughout most of last season, and it makes this price tag pretty intriguing. That sort of form is even more enticing when you look at this matchup, though, with Seattle having one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. It's not like their lineup is any good either, ranked 26th in K rate, 28th in OPS, and dead-last in BA and OBP. That makes Plesac a near guarantee for a quality start, and that's all you can ask for from an $8K pitcher. Catcher/First Base Luke Voit FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 4800 Opponent - TB (Rich Hill) Park - TB FD - 11.57 DK - 8.65 This $3K price tag on FanDuel is laughable. Voit played at an MVP level...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/12/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/12/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - TB (Josh Fleming) Park - TB FD - 47.79 DK - 26.83 Cole is coming off a somewhat of an odd start for him as he only struck out four but even giving up two earned runs, he wasn't a complete lineup killer, especially considering the high ownership. Outside of that one start, he has been elite once again this year coming in with a 1.61 ERA/2.10 xFIP and is striking out just over 40% of batters he faces. He now gets a plus matchup vs. the Rays who are striking out over 27% of the time including 10 vs. Cole in their first meeting. Cole is easily the top pitcher in all formats tonight. Danny Duffy FD - P 10200 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET FD - 31.93 DK - 16.22 There are multiple for SP2 on DraftKings or as GPP pivots off Cole and his monster price tag on FanDuel and for me, it starts with Danny Duffy. He has been terrific this season holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all six starts and one or fewer in five of those. He can get into trouble at times with the walks but has gotten out of it squeaky clean with a 28% K rate. While the Tigers have been better as of late, they rank dead last against lefties with a .217 wOBA, 36 wRC+, and 35% K rate!! All things considered, he is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings and a low-owned GPP play on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 5500 Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - LAD FD - 11.05 DK - 8.14 The Dodgers go from #2 in my stack ranks last night to #1 tonight as they face another struggling Mariners pitcher. Tonight, it's Justin Dunn on the bump and he has already walked a shocking 17 batters in five starts and has an xFIP(6.20) that is nearly three runs higher than his ERA(3.51) coming into tonight. I like the Dodgers as a whole but will be focusing on the lefties in this article as Dunn has really struggled in the split. Muncy can be streaky and is probably too expensive for cash on DraftKings but FanDuel has the Dodgers underpriced putting them in play...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/11/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/11/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Walker Buehler FD - P 10800 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - LAD FD - 36.46 DK - 20.12 Outside of the one start where Buehler allowed five earned runs, he has been lights out allowing two or fewer earned runs in the other five starts. He has also found that swing and miss stuff lately with eight or more K's in three straight with a 14% swinging-strike rate. Making it better, he gets the best matchup of the top pitchers facing the Mariners who are below average vs. righties, overall, and over the last seven days. All things considered, Buehler is my top pitcher on the slate in all formats. Pablo López FD - P 8000 DK - SP 8200 Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI FD - 30.82 DK - 16.19 This is a very interesting game that is currently set as a pickem and our system has both Lopez and Bumgarner right about the same, as well. I have no problem with either but slightly lean Lopez for a couple of reasons starting with the discounted price and higher projected PTS/$ return. Lopez has also been pitching terrific lately holding opponents to just one earned run over his last four starts with 24 strikeouts. Finally, he faces a struggling D-backs team that has dropped six straight, scoring just 12 runs total. Lopez is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings in all formats and a nice low-owned GPP option on FanDuel. Also Consider: Brady Singer(KC) as a punt SP2 play on DraftKings under $6k. He gets a great matchup as a -130 favorite, in a game with a 7.5 total facing a Tigers team with an ugly 77 wRC+ on the season Catcher/First Base José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4700 Opponent - MIN (Kenta Maeda) Park - CHW FD - 10.77 DK - 8.15 Zack Collins FD - C 2400 DK - C 3400 Opponent - MIN (Kenta Maeda) Park - CHW FD - 8.12 DK - 5.99 First base is a bit tricky as there are a lot of top options but they are either struggling or in tougher matchups. What stood out to me right away was the fact we are getting the reigning MVP at a discount based on his slow start to the season. The good news is that he appears to be heating...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/10/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/10/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Alex Wood FD - P 8900 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - TEX (Kyle Gibson) Park - SF FD - 34.89 DK - 18.25 Wood and Gibson are the two most expensive pitchers on the slate today, and while both are nice bounceback stories to start the season, I'm pretty firmly in the Wood camp here. He has better peripherals (nearly 1 extra K/9, and an xFIP a whole run lower), he's cheaper, and he arguably has the better match-up. The Rangers have the 6th highest K rate this season, and a wOBA .006 points behind the Giants. I'll grab Wood, and the savings, and feel pretty good about it. Tyler Mahle FD - P 8900 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - PIT FD - 30.5 DK - 15.98 Speaking of incredible stories to start the season, have you glanced at Tyler Mahle's line so far? He's not going deep into games, but he's averaging 12+ K/9 with a 3.53 xFIP. That's incredible production. He's also got a great match-up with the Pirates, who have managed just a .291 wOBA this season, good for 2nd worst in the Majors. I think Wood is a little safer given the longer track record, but don't be surprised to see big Mahle ownership as well. Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4100 Opponent - SD (Dinelson Lamet) Park - COL FD - 10.32 DK - 7.78 First base is pretty thin today, and while it isn't exactly accurate to say we're reaching to play a first baseman in Coors, it feels that way to some degree. Cron has fulfilled his sleeper status this season, raking to the tune of a .999 OPS at home this year. Dinelson Lamet doesn't present a great match-up on paper, but he only threw 30 pitches last game as the Padres continue to stretch him out. There is plenty of time for Cron to pay these paltry prices, and I'm fine taking his floor on a day like today. Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 5100 Opponent - LAA (Alex Cobb) Park - HOU FD - 9.04 DK - 6.93 Why are we running a 36 year old who came up at age 31 in a match-up where he doesn't even have the platoon in his favor? Well, Gurriel isn't your average big league...