DFSR’s Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings Wednesday 5/1/19
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings Wednesday 5/1/19 Listen to "Wednesday's Best FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Plays - 5/1/19" on Spreaker. The DFSR crew takes to the podcast to discuss a full day of Wednesday MLB action for FanDuel and DraftKings. They spend a little time (8:30) on the early slate of games and try to make sense of Carlos Rodon and Jakob Junis’s seasons. They also look at the Pirates as the somewhat obvious chalk stack on offense. On the evening slate, there are almost too many ace-level pitchers to name and discuss. They look at the Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Hyun-Jin Ryu and more. There are positives and negatives with each of these guys going into Wednesday’s action but it’s undeniable that these are among the best arms in the game. And finally, they try to target some cash stacks you can fit with some higher-priced arms. Be sure to subscribe through iTunes or Stitcher...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/1/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/1/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Slate Carlos Rodon FD - P 9400 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - CHW FD - 36.83 DK - 18.78 The starters from yesterday's rainout are slated to go head to head today in game one of the double-header and while there is rain in the forecast it is early on and fades late afternoon. That is good news that they should at least get one game in so I will be turning to Carlos Rodon as my core pitcher. The ERA(4.94) spiked after allowing eight runs to the Tigers in his last start but before that, he had held opponents to two or fewer runs in four of five starts. On top of that, he is striking out 28% of batters he faces which is by far the highest on this slate. To cap it off, he and the White Sox face an Orioles team sit near the bottom of the league in almost all offensive categories and have been worse against lefties with .293 wOBA, 80 wRC+, and 25% K rate. Fire up Rodon in all formats today. Also Consider: Mashiro Tanaka(NYY) Main Slate Corey Kluber FD - P 10100 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - MIA (Caleb Smith) Park - MIA FD - 38.39 DK - 21.14 Tonight's slate is definitely not short of pitching options at the top(Scherzer, Kluber, deGrom, Nola) and I wouldn't knock building around any of them but I will be starting with Kluber for a couple of reasons. It starts with the matchup as the Indians are big(-) favorites as they take on the Marlins who have scored a league-low 78 runs while striking out 25% of the time(27.5% against right-handed pitching). For Kluber, he has been up and down to start the year and sits with an ugly 5.81 ERA but there are signs he will get back to being consistent. He sits with LOB%(64%) which is over 10% lower than his career average while the BABIP(.363) sits over 60 points higher than his career number. On top of that, he is allowing just an average exit velo of 85 mph which is Top 50 among all pitchers and while he is striking out just 24% of batters, he is producing a 12.5% swinging strike rate. All things considered, Kluber is my top pitcher in all formats on Wednesday night. Aaron Nola FD - P 9100 DK -...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday, 4/30/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/30/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!Weather has been a nightmare recently, so that's the top priority before filling out lineups. This slate is no different, as we have ugly forecasts all around the country. The cities/states we need to focus on are Washington, New York, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Texas. That's about half of the slate and that's a disaster for DFS players. So, while we don't have accurate enough forecasts to predict what these games will do, it's definitely something you need to keep an eye on. PitchersTrevor Bauer FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIAFD - 41.63 DK - 22.62This is easily my favorite pitcher on the board, as Bauer should obliterate this lineup. Let's start with the Marlins, with their best hitter being Starlin Castro. That says a lot about this team and it's no surprise that they rank dead-last in total runs. The peripherals back up that run total, with Miami ranking 27th in xwOBA and 28th in wOBA. That makes any pitcher worth starting against them but especially a stud like Bauer. The right-hander currently owns a 1.99 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP to go along with an incredible 28.3 percent K-rate. Not to mention, he gets to pitch against an NL lineup with a pitcher hitting in the best pitcher's park in the majors. Vince Velasquez FD - P 8200 DK - SP 8700 Opponent - DET (Tyson Ross) Park - PHIFD - 32.33 DK - 16.78Velasquez has always been a personal favorite of mine and he appears to be finding some consistency. So far this season, Velsaquez has posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while striking out 22 batters across 22.2 innings of action. Those strikeout numbers are why we like him here, with Velsquez posting a 25.4 percent K-rate for his career. That becomes particularly intriguing in a matchup like this, with Detroit having the second-worst K-rate in the majors. They don't just struggle with plate discipline, the Tigers also rank 25th in wOBA and 27th in runs scored. Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole are two of the highest priced pitchers on the board but are worth considering with their strikeout potential and quality matchups. Jakob Junis is also worth considering if you're in need of a cheap arm, as he's at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Catcher/First BaseMitch Moreland FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - OAK (Aaron Brooks) Park -...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/30/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/30/19 Monday's MLB action brings us some stud arms like Verlander and Corbin, but also some above average guys on the mound as well who could make things dicey when it comes to stacking offenses. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Patrick Corbin FD - P 9700 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - WSHFD - 36.21 DK - 19.54 Corbin draws a tough matchup against the Cardinals on Monday, but he might just be the best overall arm going on the slate. He’s following up a career year in 2018 with a new contract and numbers that look very much the same. Dude is striking out almost 11 batters per nine and walking only 1.6, good for a 6.5:1 K:BB ratio. Again, the Cardinals do pose some serious righty threats in the middle of the lineup with Goldschmidt, Ozuna and company. But I think we can buy Corbin at something of a discount just because of the insane peripherals. Zack Wheeler FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - CIN (Tanner Roark) Park - NYMFD - 34.02 DK - 17.9 Wheeler has five starts on the season. Two were great, two were serviceable and one was a complete train wreck. It’s spelled something of an up and down year so far, but you have to like the overall peripherals. He had a seven walk nightmare against the Nationals, but in his other four starts he has 31 strikeouts in 25 innings and a 4.4:1 K:BB ratio. The Reds are running bad in the offensive department this season, but they still aren’t all that prolific of an offense. Wheeler makes for a very solid value on both sites and though there are a number of quality arms on this slate, he could top out as the best cash game option. After these two guys, I can make cases for a number of other starting pitchers on this slate. Yonny Chirinos (FD $7600 DK $7900) draws a good matchup against the weak-hitting Royals. Chirinos has been given longer leashes in his last two starts. Kenta Maeda (FD $8900 DK $9700) has maybe the best matchup of the day against the Giants. I’m just always a little concerned how far the Dodgers will let him go in games. And finally, there’s some temptation to pay all the way up for Justin Verlander (FD $11300 DK $10800) here but I don’t love the matchup against the Twins....
FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Picks for Sunday, 4/28/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/28/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Sundays are exciting because we get a full slate but this time of year it's interesting in terms of weather. We have had postponements in back-to-back days and we'll need to keep an eye on the weather forecast again here. The games with rain in the forecast include Kansas City, Washington, Atlanta, New York and Philadelphia. The east coast has just been getting pounded by rain and we have yet another dicey schedule here. So, be sure to check forecasts before lineup lock. Pitchers Zach Eflin FD - P 7600 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - PHI FD - 33.3 DK - 17.35 Using pitchers against Miami is always a profitable endeavor, as they simply have the worst lineup in the majors. Not only do they rank dead-last in scoring, they also rank last in SLG and 27th in xwOBA. That's a recipe for disaster and it's really no surprise when you consider the fact that Starlin Castro is probably their best hitter. That's why Eflin enters this matchup as a -170 favorite, which alone makes Eflin worth a shot in this price range with his 23:5 K:BB-rate. Rich Hill FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - LAD FD - 36.62 DK - 20 I have always personally loved Hill because of his goofy nature but he's a heck of a pitcher when healthy. Over the last three years, Hill owns a 3.09 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, while striking out 445 batters across 378 innings. That's an absurd strikeout rate in its own right and those numbers are hard to argue with considering Hill enters this matchup as a -190 favorite. That's no surprise considering this weak lineup, with Pittsburgh ranking 27th in wOBA and 29th in total runs. Normally Hill would be an easy call at these prices, but remember that it's his first start of the season, and that the Dodgers could be pretty cautious with him here. For that reason he might be more of a big tournament play. Also Consider Chris Sale against Tampa Bay. The struggling lefty recorded 10 Ks in his most recent outing and may finally be bouncing back after a terrible start to the season. Catcher/First Base Justin Bour FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B 3900 Opponent - KC (Homer Bailey) Park - KC FD - 10.85 DK - 8.13 Bour...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/27/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/27/19 Happy Saturday, everyone! These are my picks for tonight's main slate of games. If you're looking for early slate action, I'll put a couple of good stacks and pitchers below. If you want, you can always get access to our entire projection system for every slate and every game of all the sports we cover by clicking the button below! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Early Slate Stacks to watch The early games today feature a ton of terrible pitchers to stack against. Here is a pretty solid group of them for you! Minnesota Twins @MIN - vs. BAL (Dan Straily) - Implied Runs: 5.69 St. Louis Cardinals @STL - vs. CIN (Tyler Mahle) - Implied Runs: 4.81 Oakland Athletics @TOR - vs. TOR (Aaron Sanchez) - Implied Runs: 4.66 Early slate pitchers Stephen Strasburg and JA Happ, and a whole lot of bums. Hard to imagine those two not being chalk on both FD and DK. As I said above, for more hot early slate talk be sure to sign up for a free trial of our projection system and hop in our members only chatroom! Pitchers Noah Syndergaard FD - P 9300 DK - 9400 Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - NYM FD - 35.66 DK - 0 We'll kick things off with Thor, which only seems appropriate given the current public discourse. April has been a forgettable one for the Mets' stud, with a ridiculous .346 BABIP allowed souring what ought to be an actual improvement over last year's solid campaign. Syndergaard has run up his K/9 to 10.55 - more than a full K/9 better than last year's already solid numbers. His 5.40 ERA is more than 2 full runs higher than his xFIP, and some positive regression should be right around the corner. The Brewers are a solid DFS match-up as well, with a league average wOBA against righties with the league's 4th highest strikeout rate against them. Syndergaard is also the second highest favorite on this slate, making him a pretty juicy cash game and big tournament option. Clayton Kershaw FD - P 10900 DK - 10200 Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - LAD FD - 39.52 DK - 0 Were it not for it being Avengers(TM) week, I may have just listed Kershaw atop this entire list. The 31 year old is still getting it done, registering a strikeout per inning, an ERA under 3 and an xFIP in the...