Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on Fox 22 – 12/17/16
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on Fox 22 - 12/17/16 DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Click Here to Purchase MMA Targets This card is full of uncertainty, which is both awesome and terrifying. UFC on Fox 22 presents us with very few, if any, sure things or safe plays. There’s a lot of value in the mid and upper tiers and with so many razor thin fights, Saturday will be all about putting yourself in the best possible position. I expect more than a few finishes on this card so let’s get to the picks and try to build a solid core for both cash and GPP lineups. Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy? VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+) Luis Henrique da Silva ($9,000) Vegas Line: -225 Finish Prop: -160 Career Record: 12-0 UFC Record: 2-0 Record In Last 5: 5-0 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.61 Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00 Finishes: 11 KO / 1 Sub / 8 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: None Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round Submission (Armbar) – Joachim Christensen In a battle of unbeaten Light Heavyweight fighters, Luis Henrique da Silva stands out as the clear favorite and has one of the highest ceilings on the card. da Silva is 2-0 in the UFC and impressed with his cardio last time out in a second round submission win. That hasn’t been “Frankenstein’s” normal path to victory though as he is also a power striker. da Silva is a -225 favorite and boasts the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -160 to get a stoppage. He takes on Paul Craig, who is a UFC newcomer that has displayed plenty of holes in his game on the regional scene. Craig seems willing to work off his back and despite securing submission wins with that approach, it’s not likely to work against UFC caliber fighters. I think da Silva has the advantage wherever this fight goes and I expect an early finish from Frankenstein. Prediction: da Silva – 1st Round TKO MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400) James Moontasri ($7,800) Vegas Line: -110 Finish Prop: +195 Career Record: 9-4 UFC Record: 2-3 Record In Last 5: 2-3 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.16 Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00 Finishes: 4 KO / 3 Sub / 2 First-Round Losses...
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for TUF 24 Finale – 12/3/16
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for TUF 24 Finale - 12/3/16 DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Click Here to Purchase MMA Targets Another season of The Ultimate Fighter, another Finale – but this time we get to see a title fight and the pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet, Demetrious Johnson. Awesome. This is also a sneaky good card for DFS because it should heavily favor those who put in the research rather than the casuals who rely on name recognition. Speaking of research, you’re here for targets so let’s get to it. Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy? I lied - Before the usual write-up, I want to introduce a relatively (Ep. 2) new project I’ve been working on, the Daily Fantasy Scramble. It’s a podcast recapping the main event of each UFC card as well as offering some other MMA DFS thoughts. I promise the audio issues will get better, but for now, give it a listen below: VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+) Ion Cutelaba ($8,900) Vegas Line: -230 Finish Prop: -140 Career Record: 12-2, 1 NC UFC Record: 1-1 Record In Last 5: 4-1 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.29 Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00 Finishes: 9 KO / 2 Sub / 10 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Jonathan Wilson Similar to my last article, I’m choosing not to take the easy route – no Demetrious Johnson here. But as a quick note, play him. Simple as that. Ion Cutelaba is another guy in the upper tier that will be in plenty of my tournament lineups. He’s a -230 favorite and actually has the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -140. He has a track record of finishing fights and picked up his first UFC win in his last outing. Cutelaba takes on Jared Cannonier, who seems to be a similar fighter to Cutelaba’s previous opponent, Jonathan Wilson. Both guys have high output rates and I expect the fight to stay standing. Cutelaba should also have the advantage if it ends up as a clinch ground fight, he simply as more tools than Cannonier. These light heavyweights won’t let the judges factor into the decision so I’ll be a little wary...
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 100 – 11/19/16
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 100 - 11/19/16 DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Click Here to Purchase MMA Targets Two cards in one day! Saturday is going to be awesome. This week’s article will focus on the second event of the day, which takes place in Brazil. The first card comes from Belfast and I won’t totally abandon you, read on for some really quick picks for Fight Night 99 if you’ll be playing the 12:00 pm EST contests. Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 2 is the main event in Brazil and the whole world will rightfully be on Bader, including myself. But where else can you look for that DFS goodness? Let’s get to the picks. Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy? OK as promised, before digging into Fight Night 100 here are a few quick picks for Belfast. Full disclosure, I’ve done much less research on this card because of time constraints, but these are my initial thoughts: Favorite – Teruto Ishihara ($8,900) / Gegard Mousasi ($9,600) Mid-Range – Kyoji Horiguchi ($8,400) / Mark Godbeer ($8,000) Value – Alexander Yakovlev ($7,200) VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+) Jack Hermansson ($8,900) Vegas Line: -230 Finish Prop: -133 Career Record: 14-2 UFC Record: 1-0 Record In Last 5: 5-0 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.87 Finishes: 8 KO / 4 Sub / 5 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Scott Askham I could take the easy way out here and pick Thomas Almeida in this price tier and while I’ll have heavy exposure to him as well, I wanted to go a different route than the chalk play. I present to you, Jack Hermansson. Hermansson had a strong showing in his UFC debut against Scott Askham, landing an impressive 5.87 significant strikes per minute. He takes on Cezar Ferreira as a -230 favorite and is -133 to finish inside the distance. Ferreira has won two straight but has also been knocked out in the first round FOUR times in his 15 fight career. I think Hermansson has the power to end the fight and even without a finish, should stay active enough to meet value and score a healthy amount of points in...
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 205 – 11/12/16
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 205 - 11/12/16 DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Click Here to Purchase MMA Targets UFC. Madison Square Garden. Finally, those two things come together at UFC 205. I simply can’t oversell what an amazing card this is going to be, three title fights and big names all over the place. Conor McGregor is shooting to be the first fighter ever to simultaneously hold titles in two weight divisions. DraftKings has responded appropriately with the single biggest day in DFS MMA history. There is a TON of money up for grabs – who should you target to get your share? Let’s dig in to the picks for UFC 205. Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy? VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+) Conor McGregor ($8,600) Vegas Line: -140 Finish Prop: -107 Career Record: 20-3 UFC Record: 8-1 Record In Last 5: 4-1 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.02 Finishes: 17 KO / 1 Sub / 13 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: 3 Sub Last Time Out: W, Majority Decision – Nate Diaz Before I start – honorable mention here to Joanna Jedrzejczyk whose output is crazy high and puts her in play in all formats. But I want to dig into McGregor as I love his finish potential and he’s the biggest name in the sport. He’s an elite striker and honestly even though he is the 145 lbs champion, he looks to be a natural 155 lbs fighter. Eddie Alvarez is the better wrestler but has also made a habit of getting hurt in his fights and managing to survive. I think that is exactly how this plays out with the exception of his ability to recover against the power of McGregor. The Irishmen has the best finish prop on the card at -107 and I expect him to end UFC 205 with a bang. The danger would be if the fight goes into the later rounds or if Alvarez gets it to the ground. I don’t expect either to happen and McGregor is only $8,600 DraftKings, much cheaper than some of the other favorites. Load up the Notorious one in all formats and you should close out the night with a solid score. Prediction: McGregor – 1st Round TKO MID-RANGE TARGET...
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 98 – 11/5/16
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 98 - 11/5/16 DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Click Here to Purchase MMA Targets Daily Fantasy MMA is back! After a brutal one month hiatus thanks to a cancelled card, the UFC returns Saturday night in Mexico City for Fight Night 98 – Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson. It’s a good, not great card, but it’s filled with one thing strategic DFS players can take advantage of – recency bias. There are tons of plays that look great or terrible based on a fighter’s last outing. It’s important to look at recent form, but you need to dig deeper than one fight. Obviously, sometimes the popular (recent) perception is correct and sometimes it’s very wrong and that’s where we can make our money. With that said, let’s get to the picks for UFC Fight Night 98. Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy? VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+) Enrique Barzola ($9,500) Vegas Line: -600 Finish Prop: +146 Career Record: 11-3-1 UFC Record: 1-1 Record In Last 5: 3-2 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.10 Finishes: 4 KO / 4 Sub / 2 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Sub Last Time Out: L, Split Decision – Kyle Bochniak I’m not exactly going out on a limb with this one as Enrique Barzola is the highest priced fighter this week, but on a lack luster card for dominant fantasy options he has to be mentioned. The pick isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Barzola but more of an indictment of his opponent, Chris Avila, who simply isn’t a UFC caliber fighter. Avila found his way onto the last Diaz card as he trains with the brothers and lost a unanimous decision to Artem Lobov. Barzola isn’t a world beater but he should steam roll Avila, which is supported by Vegas with -600 odds to win and +146 to finish. Fire away on Barzola in all formats as I think there’s enough value out there to make up for the salary. Prediction: Barzola – 2nd Round TKO MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400) Tony Ferguson ($7,900) Vegas Line: +125 Finish Prop: +173 Career Record: 21-3 UFC Record: 11-1 Record In Last 5: 5-0 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.56 Finishes: 9 KO / 8 Sub / 9 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: 1...
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 204 – 10/8/16
Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 204 - 10/8/16 DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash & GPP plays as well as fades & contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Click Here to Purchase MMA Targets Shuffle, shuffle, H-BOMB! It’s the final fight in the storied career of Dan Henderson and while I don’t think we’ll see that overhand right, except for the countless replays of the first Bisping/Hendo fight, I’ll be glued to my seat for the main event. Which, by the way, is going to take place at about 5 am local time in London to keep the fights in prime time here in the U.S. It’s an interesting fact but I don’t know exactly what impact, if any, the time of day will have on anyone in the entire card. It’s a pay-per-view so naturally there are more causal players on DraftKings, which equals more money in the pool. We are still adjusting to the new scoring rules and I think the most interesting challenge of this card isn’t picking winners but finding the fighters with the most fantasy upside in those wins. It’s an important distinction, especially this week - let’s take a look at my favorite fantasy plays in each price tier. Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy? VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+) Gegard Mousasi ($9,400) Vegas Line: -335 Finish Prop: -220 Career Record: 39-6-2 UFC Record: 6-3 Record In Last 5: 4-1 Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.56 Finishes: 20 KO / 12 Sub / 29 First-Round Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Sub Last Time Out: W, 1st Round TKO – Thiago Santos There are tons of guys in this price range who I think will win their fight, and even a few who could finish, but I think the best value in the tier lies with Gegard Mousasi. Mousasi has seen and done it all with 47 pro fights under his belt and viciously knocked out Thiasgo Santos at UFC 200. He’s a cool customer in the Octagon, is technically solid, and has one of the best chins in the division. Vitor Belfort, on the other hand, is clearly on the downswing of his career and after his TRT fueled renaissance has looked very ordinary since it was banned. Belfort will flurry early and Mousasi will either counter or...