Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/28/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/28/18 It's the last Saturday of July, the trade deadline is fast approaching, and the pennant races are heating up. There's a full day of Major League Baseball to hold our attention today, though we'll mainly focus on tonight's eleven game main slate for this article. Let's check out the picks!! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Justin Verlander FD 12000 DK 13400 Opponent - TEX (Undecided) Park - HOU FD - 47.94 DK - 26.23 There are two big names to pay all the way up for on tonight's slate. Our MLB projection system heavily favors Justin Verlander over Jacob deGrom and with good reason, Verlander has everything going in his favor. Verlander and the Astros host the Rangers as -352 favorites in Minute Maid Park, which year over year has proven to be a pitchers haven. deGrom meanwhile is just a -128 favorite on the road with the struggling Mets offense backing him up in much more hitter friendly PNC Park. Texas isn't a terrible offense, ranked middle of the pack in most offensive categories this season, but they do fall to a bottom ten offense with a RHP on the hill, while striking out 25.3% of the time, good for fourth most in baseball against the split. Verlander meanwhile has been up and down this season. The xFIP is more than a full run behind the ERA, but he is striking out over eleven batters per nine, and coming off a six inning shutout in Anaheim where he fanned eleven. You don't necessarily have to break the bank, and it's a Coors slate, so we'll discuss spending down in a moment, but in spite of the cost, Verlander is the safest bet in town and a top points per dollar play in all formats even in the top tier. Patrick Corbin FD 9600 DK 10700 Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - SD FD - 42.74 DK - 22.72 Patrick Corbin isn't exactly a bargain, but he will save some coin as you work towards your bats, and sees an extremely appealing matchup in the form of the San Diego Padres. Arizona opens as -152 favorites in PetCo, which historically favors the pitchers, though it has proven to be a tad more hitter-friendly this season. Still, we're talking about the Padres here. They...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/21/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/21/18 We already highlighted Clayton Kershaw, Vince Velasquez, and Zack Godley in our Saturday 7/21/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Indians and Phillies as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Carlos Carrasco FD 9700 DK 10200 Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - TEX FD - 34.66 DK - 18.84 For this piece, I've selected two pitchers in different pricing tiers. We'll start out with the top shelf option in Carlos Carrasco. If you read the picks article, you know that we love the Indians offense because they're projecting for the most runs scored tonight. That has them opening as strong -175 favorites against the Rangers in Globe Life Park. GLP has proven very hitter-friendly in recent years, but Carrasco throws the majority of his games in Progressive Field which is equally ranked, so he's no stranger to the challenge. He handles it very well, as evidenced by his top 15 ranked xFIP (3.38). As matchups go, this is a favorable one. Texas ranks in the bottom half of the league in team wOBA, and strikeout fourth-most against the split 25.3% of the time. It's going to be clear and dry in Arlington tonight, though quite hot, with a light breeze blowing in from rightfield. If the heat gets to him it could be an early exit for Carrasco, so I may not go there in cash games, but for tournaments, Carrasco has as much upside as anyone throwing tonight. Lance Lynn FD 7600 DK 7200 Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KC FD - 28.47 DK - 14.01 On the value side of things, we have Lance Lynn and the Twins in Kansas City. We're looking at clear skies once again with temperatures a little more comfortable and a strong wind blowing in from leftfield which could help knock down some flyballs in average, though slightly leaning towards hitter-friendly, Kauffman Stadium. Not that we have much to worry about from the Royals. They're rather unremarkable as offenses go with a .292 wOBA against RHP, a .129 ISO, and the fewest home runs of any team in the league. They also don't strike out. With a 20.8 K% the Royals strikeout at a...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/21/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/21/18 The league has blessed us with a full day of major league action. For the purposes of this article, we will focus primarily on the eleven game main slate starting at 7:05 EST. Is it safe to lock Clayton Kershaw yet? How many Indians are too many? Join me as we answer these questions and more. On to the picks! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Clayton Kershaw FD 10700 DK 11900 Opponent - MIL (Chase Anderson) Park - MIL FD - 38.12 DK - 21.47 After last night's questionable crop of arms, Saturday night presents us with somewhat of an increase in quality with our starting pitchers. We'll start out by saying that it seems we are safe to run with Clayton Kershaw once again. After missing time with a back injury, one of the best in the game is finally starting to look like his old self. He's thrown at least six innings in his last three starts, nearly going seven deep Sunday against the Angels. He struck out eight in that game, his largest total since 4/15. It wasn't a perfect outing for Clayton. He allowed three earned runs on ten baserunners, including four walks, very un-Kershaw-like. It was still a positive step forward and certainly bodes well for today's matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee is an average offense, ranked fifteenth overall in wOBA, but they drop all the way down to twenty-fourth against lefties. They also strikeout at 24.4% of the time, though that number drops to 21% in the split, so the upside could be limited unless Kershaw finds himself in the zone. Still, with the Dodgers as -175 opening favorites I'll take Kershaw for about $1500 less than what we would normally expect to pay for him in cash games, and may very well throw him in some tournaments just for fun. Vince Velasquez FD 8300 DK 7800 Opponent - SD (Luis Perdomo) Park - PHI FD - 37.28 DK - 19.76 Not only do we have some better arms to consider today, but we're also getting them in prime matchups. Vince Velasquez, for example, will take the hill for the Phillies against the Padres in south Philadelphia. Even though I just watched them put up a four-spot on Jake Arietta in the first inning of Friday night's game,...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/14/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/14/18 We already highlighted Gerrit Cole and Mike Clevinger in our Saturday 7/14/18 picks article. We also highlighted the the Orioles as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Aaron Nola FD 10700 DK 11500 Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA FD - 38.59 DK - 20.57 Selected for his first All-Star game, the Phillies have bumped Aaron Nola up a day in the rotation, starting him this afternoon against the Marlins as opposed to his normal day which would hace been tomorrow. It's a rightful honor for the young Phillies right hander who is putting up some impressive numbers here in his fourth season. With twelve wins in 19 starts, Nola sits just outside the top ten with a 3.21 xFIP, while striking out 26.4% of the batters he faces. It's an ideal matchup today for the right hander as he faces a Marlins team with a .302 combined wOBA while striking out 22.6% against the split. Bonus for traveling into one of the friendliest pitchers parks in the game. Philadelphia is a -158 favorite todaty with the Marlins projectnig for one of the lowest run totals ofthe day. It's a strong spot for Nola who can be used in all formats this afternoon. Sean Newcomb FD 6900 DK 6900 Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ATL FD - 31.7 DK - 16.06 If ever there was a higher risk play this is it, but given the limited salary commitment there is potential for great upside as well, Sean Newcomb is coming off of a pair of really terrible outings, allowing ten earned runs in 6.1 combined innings against the Yankees and Brewers. Before that, the young Atlanta southpaw was having an impressive second season, including a four-game stretch in May where he surrendered just one earned run in 25 innings pitched. The recent struggles have inflated the xFIP to 4.25, but Newcomb is still managing to strike out 23% of the batters who step into the box against him all while keeping the hard contact down around the 30% mark. Today he'll face off with a Diamondbacks team sporting an average .305 team wOBA who strike out the sixth most...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/14/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/14/18 Saturday before the All-Star break gives us a full day of baseball with a six-game main slate following an afternoon full of action. Let’s break down the top plays of the day to see who we need to consider when building lineups. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Early/Afternoon Gerrit Cole FD 11200 DK 12000 Opponent - DET (Michael Fulmer) Park - HOU FD - 49.1 DK - 26.66 Gerrit Cole is heading into the All-Star break on pace for the most impressive season yet of his still young career. His first season in Houston sees Cole sporting a top ten xFIP, with a ridiculous 12.40 K/9. Only Chris Sale can boast better. If he continues on his current track, he will post career-best numbers in ERA, xFIP, K/9, and win percentage. He'll look to close out the first half with a win at home against the Tigers. Detroit has been abysmal offensively this year, and are even worse looking at the split with a bottom five team wOBA against RHP. Houston is the biggest favorite of the day with an opening line of -250. Cole will cost a sizeable chunk of salary, but on the early slate, he is easily the surest thing going. Jack Flaherty FD 7200 DK 8000 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - STL FD - 33.06 DK - 16.93 In the SP2 slot on DraftKings, or just for some pitching value if you're looking to go wild with the bats, we can look to Jack Flaherty. Flaherty only has 18 starts under his belt, so we don't have a ton to go on with the young right-hander, but what we have seen has been quite exciting. Flaherty is posting a 3.44 xFIP right on pace with his 3.34 ERA and is striking out over ten batters per nine through his first thirteen starts of the year; both numbers marked improvements from his limited showing in 2017. The matchup against the Reds is far from a slam dunk, they possess a .321 wOBA against Right handers this season, good enough for a top ten ranking while striking out 21.2% of the time against the split. The Cards are -143 favorites, so we can hope for the win, but expect the Reds to put some runs on the board in the...