DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD 10000 DK 9600 Opponent - MIA (Zach Thompson) Park - MIA FD - 34.54 DK - 18.93 This very well may be the worst pitching slate of the season and makes our decision to fade a high-priced ace very easy as there aren't any. We still have to roster a pitcher(two on DraftKings) and for me, it starts with Charlie Morton who has been providing nice PTS/$ value but now gets a monster price which is mostly relative to the options on this slate. While he did get hit around by these very Marlins in his last start, the matchup is on the plus side as they do rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories. This game also has the lowest total(7.5) on the slate and with strikeouts being king Morton gives us a 5-7 K floor. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this slate and in play in all formats. Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 34.68 DK - 18.72 Walker got pushed up a day due to a rainout yesterday and has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) which does limit the upside here but overall they rank as a bottom 5-10 offense giving Walker a nice PTS/$ floor in the $9K range on both sites. Kenta Maeda FD - P 7300 DK - SP 7100 Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - MIN FD - 29.85 DK - 15.93 With an overall lack of serviceable options on this slate, I was a little surprised to see Maeda as a -205 favorite in the low $7K range on DraftKings. His first half has been a complete roller coaster ride but the good news is that he is coming off his best start of the season going six innings in KC allowing just two hits and no runs while striking out 10 and walking just one. If he limits the walks, he can easily get into the 6th inning giving him a very high PTS/$ floor and ceiling. Lock in the value at SP2 in all formats. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 5400 Opponent - TEX (Jordan...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 33.32 DK - 18.1 Not going to lie. I am getting tired of being burned by elite-priced pitching and making the decision to fade those top ones is much easier tonight as they are facing each other(Max vs. Yu). I will be going with a much more balanced approach and it starts with Walker who has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) but rank as a bottom-five offense overall leading to the Mets being big -195 favorites and Walker one of my favorite pitchers on this slate. Alek Manoah FD - P 10300 DK - SP 6800 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 33.44 DK - 18.38 This is mostly a DraftKings-only play as he is massively underpriced, especially considering the rookie is coming off his best start of the season. It was also his longest outing(7 IP) and against a tough Rays team that he struck out 10 times. He now has a season-low price tag(since his debut) facing a bottom 10 offense in the Orioles who are also much worse against righties with an 84 wRC+ and 25% K rate. Manoah is my top, and likely chalk, SP2 on DraftKings and makes a nice high upside/low owned GPP pivot on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4700 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 16.83 DK - 12.77 The Blue Jays are like a super team tonight as they are easily the highest projected offense and despite being very expensive aren't too hard to fit if using Manoah as your SP2. While the lineup is stacked top to bottom it revolves around Valddy who is having an MVP-like first half hitting .344 with 28 home runs and 72 RBI. He and the Jays now get a matchup against a struggling Keegan Akin who has given up 6+ hits and 4+ earned runs in four straight starts. If you needed more convincing, Vladdy has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and 159 wRC+. You know what to do! Eric Haase FD - C...
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – John Deere Classic
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – John Deere Classic Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more. Premium DFSR members get access to my expert sheets as a part of their membership. That's a $20 value every single month, just for signing up for a DFSR membership! Want my sheets on their own? Head on over to my Patreon Page Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! This week the PGA Tour returns to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic after having to cancel the event in 2020 due to the pandemic. With this being the last event before the Open Championship and final major of the season, we have a very weak field that doesn't include one Top 10 player in the World Golf Rankings and just five who rank inside the Top 50. The biggest thing to train yourself for this week is blocking out the names as they will be overpriced due to season averages. This is key to remove any bias you might have on a player you routinely play in the low $7K range who is now $8K-$9K. Much like last week, we are going to see a birdie fest as this event has ranked outside the Top 35 in difficulty in each of the last five years and seen an average winning score of -22. I will be looking much more at Strokes Gained: Approach over Off the Tee simply because the average fairways hit has been close to 70% over the last five years. Not that I rule it out completely, however, as the Kentuck Bluegrass rough is listed at 4" and can turn hopes of a birdie into a par save at best real fast. With the setup being a Par 71, that means one less Par 5 putting emphasis on Par 4 Scoring and it has shown to have high correlation to finish position. Finally, Birdie or Better % will make up a large portion of my stats model and if using Fantasy National Golf Club tools, I also love looking at Opportunities Gained and Birdie Gained together to see if a player may be under or over performing. With all that said, let's look at some course info, previous winners, and then...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM FD - 36.32 DK - 20.76 After laying an egg in Coors back in mid-June, Woodruff has gotten back to his dominant self allowing just one earned run in each of his last two starts while striking out 17 batters. They were both plus matchups(ARI. CHC) but the good news is that they get another one tonight as they go into one of the best pitchers parks in Citi Field. He faces an inconsistent Mets team that has scored the third-fewest runs since the start of June while striking out 25% of the time. I know top pitchers have been shaky since the whole "stick stuff" ban but Woodruff is one pitcher it seems to have not affected. Either way, he is in a great spot and my top pitcher in all formats. Joe Musgrove FD - P 9600 DK - SP 8700 Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - SD FD - 35.86 DK - 19.44 I completely understand if you want to fade or at least be underweight on Woodruff and if that is the case, Joe Musgrove has a projection very close to Woodruff but comes with a much lower price tag. While he is coming off a dud against the Reds(5 ER), he has been consistent all year entering the night with a 2.63 ERA/3.29 xFIP and the upside we seen in 2020(33% K rate) has carried over into this season(30%). He faces a Nats team that has been struggling in the short term losing four straight and will be without Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber on Monday. Musgrove has huge win expectation as a -210 favorite and is one of our top PTS/$ plays on the mound. Catcher/First Base Salvador Perez FD 3200 DK 5000 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 12.47 DK - 9.48 Ryan O'Hearn FD 2600 DK 3200 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 10.8 DK - 8.08 This is one of the first articles I have written in a long time where one of the Top 5 offenses in baseball wasn't also the top projected team on the slate. That honor goes to the Kansas City Royals tonight in a great spot vs. Gutierrez who has given up 6+ hits in four of his last...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/30/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/30/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Chris Bassitt FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - TEX (Kolby Allard) Park - OAK FD - 41.53 DK - 22.63 Bassitt may not provide the upside we are used to getting with our top-priced pitcher but his price is mostly relative to the size of the slate and lack of options at the top. The good news here is that he has been one of the more consistent arms this season holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts lowering his ERA to 3.25 on the season. On top of the consistency, he gives us some of the best win equity on the slate as a -200 favorite against a below-average Rangers offense. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this main slate. Joe Musgrove FD - P 8700 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 37.66 DK - 20.83 First of all, this is a big park downgrade for Musgrove but as I mentioned above we are short on options tonight so talent wins out. The year started off with a bang as he shutout Arizona over six innings followed by a no-hitter against Texas and then three more starts holding opponents to just five total earned runs. After a couple of rough outings, he has been consistent since posting a 1.57 ERA over his last eight starts and has gone at least six innings in three straight. He has provided a high floor all season and despite a smaller slate the price has actually come back down making him a top PTS/$ option and my favorite SP2 on the slate. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4700 DK 5900 Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA FD - 16.14 DK - 12.24 There are really only two ways to go at first base it seems like on a nightly basis. You either pay up for pitching and scatter value bats throughout your lineup or find some value pitching and load up on bats. If paying up, there is really only one option and it's Valddy Jr who comes in with hits in nine straight including five multi-hit efforts, and has arguably been the MVP of the league with a .344/.446/.685 slash line. Unlike a year ago, he has really crushed lefties as well and is in play...