Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 8 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 8! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obvioulsy, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot. It was a killer week for DFSR's projection system. The optimal lineup of Kirk Cousins, Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Johnson, Jordan Reed, Adam Vinataeri, and Rams Defense put up 184.5 FanDuel Points. Needless to say, we're all feeling pretty good around here! Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial I’ve touched on this before, but touchdowns are a very volatile statistic in DFS. They’re tough to predict and often account for much of the variance in game-to-game fantasy output. Predicting TDs accurately will always be a crap-shoot with most non-QBs less than a 50/50 bet to reach the end zone, but there are a few ways to make sure you’re maximizing your lineup’s TD potential. Volume Simply put, the more a player touches the ball, the more likely it is he’ll reach the end zone. Unpredictable things happen all the time in the NFL: defenders slip, or just plan whiff on tackles. The more a player has the ball in his hands, the more likely he is to benefit from these happenstance occurrences. Red Zone Work Two thirds of passing TDs and nearly 90 percent of rushing TDs occur on plays that start inside the red zone. The players that see their number called in the red zone most frequently are the ones with the greatest TD potential. High Vegas Totals Games with high Vegas totals are where the most scoring will occur. Selecting players from these games will increase your TD upside. But remember to check a player’s percentage of workload on red zone workload stats first. A high Vegas total doesn’t mean as much if the player isn’t normally involved with a team’s scoring plays. Deep Targets Deep targets are the hardest to rely on, but they’re high-value fantasy targets. If a player is adept at getting open deep, all it takes is one accurate pass to hit pay dirt. Now let’s get in to the Week 8 plays. QUARTERBACK Andy Dalton - FD 8100 DK 6000Opponent- PIT Dalton will face a Steelers defense allowing 293 passing yards per game, fifth-most in the NFL. The Steelers are also strong against the run,...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - Week 7 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 7! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial This week I want to discuss roster construction, and more specifically, why it’s unwise to think about players in a vacuum. I often get asked the question, “You have to have player X in your lineup this week, right?” That question is always hard to answer because players can’t be thought of in a vacuum. Every player you roster affects the rest of your lineup. For example, last week on FanDuel I really wanted to get Tom Brady into my cash game lineup. However, no lineup I made with Brady made me feel as comfortable as I’d have liked. By paying up for Brady, I felt that I was unnecessarily sacrificing consistency at multiple other spots. So I pivoted to Philip Rivers at $1,500 less, which allowed me to build around a RB core of Matt Forte and Arian Foster while still fitting in Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, and Antonio Gates. The fact that Rivers outscored Brady is irrelevant; what’s important is that I was attempting to ensure my entire lineup was strong, rather than getting sucked in to the narrative of “got to play Brady in a revenge game” or even the fact of Brady being the top fantasy QB. You can always start constructing a lineup building around an expensive top play and see where it goes, but if you don’t feel good about the lineup after you’ve filled in all the slots, don’t force it. One good play alone won’t win you a week. QUARTERBACKS Andrew Luck - FD 8900 DK 7600 Opponent- NO Fresh off a 312-yard, three-TD performance against the Patriots, Luck gets to square off against a Saints team allowing the second-most fantasy points in the league to QBs. The only QBs the Saints have been able to hold under 295 yards and two TDs are Jameis Winston and Brandon Weeden. Carson Palmer - FD 8200 DK 6700 Opponent- BAL Palmer faces the Ravens, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game in the league to opposing QBs. The Ravens have allowed 340 or more passing yards in four of six games; the...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 6 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 1! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obvioulsy, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial Last week, I discussed the fact that we have a larger sample size to go off of as the season progresses, and I touched on looking at indicators of workload such as touches, targets, etc. Of all statistics, past volume is most predictive of future fantasy success. This was evident last week as top performers like Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, Justin Forsett, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, and Doug Martin had all been seeing heavy volume entering Week 5. Top performances from relative newcomers on the fantasy scene like Todd Gurley, Willie Snead, Allen Hurns and Gary Barnidge were all preceded by an uptick in volume as well. As you make decisions in DFS, be sure to emphasize a player’s workload in your process, because opportunity increases fantasy upside and a lack of opportunity caps fantasy upside. Now let’s get into the Week 6 plays. QUARTERBACKS Tom Brady - FD 9000 DK 8100 Starsdraft 8100Opponent- IND Brady is the fantasy QB1 through five weeks, and faces off against a Colts defense that has allowed 293 passing yards per game despite facing Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Mallett. The Patriots’ team total of 31 is the slate’s highest, and Brady has accounted for 72 percent of the Patriot’s TDS since the start of 2014 (including playoffs). Carson Palmer - FD 8000 DK 6600 Starsdraft 6500Opponent- PIT Palmer is third in NFL in QBR and leads the league with an 8.8% TD percentage. He’s thrown multiple scores in eight of his last ten games dating back to last season, and has eclipsed 300 yards in three of five games this season. The Steelers allow a 70 percent completion rate and a 9:3 TD-to-interception ratio. Philip Rivers - FD 7500 DK 6300 Starsdraft 5700Opponent- GB Among all fantasy stats across all positions, passing yards exhibit the most week-to-week consistency. Rivers is third in the NFL in passing yards per game, behind only Brady and Drew Brees. Green Bay is playing good defense, but their on-paper success against the pass (186 yards allowed) may be misleading. They’ve faced...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 5 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 5! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial As we’ve entered the season’s second quarter, it’s a good time to discuss sample size. With only 16 games per season, it’s always a challenge to obtain a large enough sample of NFL data. Nevertheless, four weeks in to the season, it’s time to start giving 2015 numbers more weight. As is pertains to QBs and defenses against QBs, we’re looking for trends in efficiency metrics. Has a QB been able to consistently throw for good yardage and multiple TDs. Has a defense consistently had trouble stopping completions are allowed a high yards-per-attempt average over this season’s first four games? At the other positions, we’re looking for indicators of consistent volume. What is the lowest number of targets and receptions a receiver has had through four games? How many touches and red zone opportunities is a RB seeing? These are all meaningful trends that we should pay attention to now that 2015 is 25 percent complete. Also, don’t forget to simply look at fantasy performance to date. Some players’ prices simply haven’t caught up to their production, and through four games, that’s significant. For example, Larry Fitzgerald is currently the fantasy WR2, but he’s priced outside the top ten WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Now let’s get into the Week 5 plays. QUARTERBACK Tom Brady - FD 8800 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8300 Opponent- DAL The fantasy QB1 through the first quarter of the season, Brady faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed an average of 322 passing yards and two TDs over the past two games to Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. The Patriots enter the weekend with the highest Vegas total on the slate (29.25), which bodes well for Brady since 71 percent of New England’s offensive TDs have come via the pass since the start of 2014 (including playoffs). Philip Rivers - FD 7500 DK 6200 Starsdraft 7000 Opponent- PIT The NFL’s passing yardage leader through four games, Rivers’ salary has dropped $600 on FanDuel and $900 on DraftKings from when the season opened. Rivers has been consistent this season, throwing for at least 240 in all...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 4 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 4! He's doing an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo, and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial As we approach the end of the first quarter of the NFL season, DFS salaries are starting to see major movement away from where they started the season. Some of the price changes are legitimate, but some are simply due to “noise” rather than “signal” – in other words, early season variance. Price drops – absent injury or change in workload – tend to be predictive of future value. A the season starts to progress, it’s important to look out for unwarranted price drops and also avoid players with rising salaries, unless the rise is warranted. You can compare a player’s current salary not only to his season-opening salary, but also to his historical salary. For example, last week, Jimmy Graham’s FanDuel price was the lowest it’s been since 2010, so his 7-83-1 line last week provided even more value than usual. I mentioned Cam Newton’s $800 price drop as well last week, and he finished as a top-three scorer at his position. Then there were big days from A.J. Green and Jeremy Maclin, who had also seen large decreases in salary. QUARTERBACK Aaron Rodgers - FD 9200 DK 7900 Starsdraft 8300 Opponent- SF Whereas the value of other fantasy football positions depends on workload volume, efficiency is crucial at the QB position. That’s what makes Aaron Rodgers a top play facing off against the 49ers, who are allowing a whopping 10.0 yards per pass attempt, worst in the NFL. Take advantage of the fact that Rodgers’ price didn’t increase despite a 333-yard, 5-TD shellacking of the Chiefs. Andrew Luck - FD 9100 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8500 Opponent- JAC Luck’s price is slowly declining and he’s in a good spot at home against a Jaguars defense that he shredded for 52-of-71 (73 percent) passing, 623 yards (8.8 yards/attempt), five TDs, and no picks in two meetings last season. The Jaguars didn’t get a true test Week 1 against Cam Newton, who ran on a third of his dropbacks, but gave up 359 yards and two TDs to Ryan Tannehill in Week 2 and 358 yards and two TDs to...