Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 7 - DraftKings DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape. Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal. Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out. I hope you read my Week 7 Thursday article “To Fade, or Not to Fade. That is the Question…or is it?” I discussed the ideas behind considering a player’s utilization rate and why this should very rarely play a part in our analysis. More importantly, I gave you a mock lineup for this week’s millionaire maker and promised that I would give you one more at the risk of my own embarrassment (or worse, chopping up 1mil because I couldn't keep these to myself).   I’ll be the first to tell you it’s very unlikely either of these lineups crack the top 100. My cash rate in the millionaire maker is 34%. I cashed on 7 of 15 lineups in week 4 and 10 of 35 in week 5. Considering the Millionaire Maker pays the top 15,000 of the 90,000+ entrants (~top 17%), I’ll gladly take a 34% success rate. The bad news is I still haven’t sniffed a four figure payout from this tournament. Unfortunately, an element of luck has to be on your side for you to see those kinds of gains. But hell, just like the lotto, you can’t win if you don’t play.   Week 7 Picks: Millionaire Maker Lineup Team B Since I am such a considerate writer, here is the team I recommended on Thursday. Colin Kaepernick DK $6,500, Jamaal Charles DK $6,700, Arian Foster DK $8,300, Brandon Marshall DK $6,300, Justin Hunter DK $3,700, Golden Tate DK $5,900, Jermaine Gresham DK $3,500, Justin Forsett DK $5,600, Buffalo Bills $3,300. I will not be including any of these picks in the lineup below, but normally I do overlap picks. If you have enough bankroll to make multiple lineups you should be using your top picks in multiple lineups while rearranging the boom/bust picks. Quarterback Derek Carr DK $5,800 Ok, I know what you’re thinking. This idiotic daily fantasy “expert” is telling me to...

Daily fantasy football picks for Week 6 - DraftKings DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape. Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal. Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out. When everybody begins to “think out of the box”, the inside of the box becomes “out of the box”…let that one soak in. Hopefully I just mind-shagged a few of you with my wordplay, but believe me, I am going somewhere with this. Also, what I am about to say is going against my "fade" approach I've been preaching all year. Words of wisdom, if you aren’t adjusting your strategy, adding something new to your data, or trying to figure out how to get ahead of the competition every single week, then you’ll never see any progress. Just like you, I am trying to figure out the optimal strategy in order to produce the highest weekly scores possible. It is becoming more common for daily fantasy pundits to discuss “utilization” (the percentage at which a player is chosen in any given league). This may be obvious to some, but I’m going to establish it anyway. A player (let’s call him Player 1) with a smaller utilization rate is a better pick than one with a larger utilization rate (Player 2) given they are the same “expected” player. In other words, if Player 1 and Player 2 are the exact same play by the numbers (equivalent salary, equivalent injury probability, equivalent expected value and variance in points scored) then the tie-breaking question should be “which player will be picked LESS by my opponents?” The fantasy world refers to this strategy as “fading”. When we are not sure who will do better, it is custom to project a player’s utilization rate and default to choosing the guy who will be less played while “fading” the suspected “popular” play. I’m not disagreeing with this paradigm, I am just saying we should never get to the point of asking the question, “to fade or not to fade?” There are far better questions to ask yourself first in order to determine the better play. Here...

Daily fantasy football picks for Week 6 - DraftKings DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape. Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal. Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out. “44 ladies that’s me!! WOOOOOOOO Gonna’ get some cold cuts today!” (Geico Commercial gets me every time). I can only imagine the celebration Ickey Woods would be doing if he were in our position. 24 hours from the second installment of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker. I can hardly contain myself! I will admit, when watching the games on Sunday, my go-to celebration dance is not the Ickey Woods shuffle, but the Victor Cruz salsa (this goes way back to my first year of playing daily fantasy, Ramsey you know what’s up). I promised myself I wouldn’t write a giant introduction discussing strategies or the current events of the daily fantasy world and for once, I am going to keep that promise. Without further ado, here are my DraftKings week 6 daily fantasy picks (P.S. I already wrote my Thursday strategy piece and it’s a good one; so if you like my ramblings then make sure to check it out next week).   Week 6 Picks: Redemption – Take Two of the Millionaire Maker   Quarterbacks Matt Ryan $DK 8,600 I refuse to give Peyton Manning DK $9,400 his own paragraph…so I’ll just write about him under Matt Ryan’s header. Manning is the most expensive QB (again) by $400 and rightfully so. A Great matchup and essentially no running game to take away from his stat line. If you can fit his enormous salary in your lineup then I’m not going to fault you. With that said, I think Matt Ryan has an an equally good situation and is $800 less than Peyton. In Ryan’s home games this year, he is averaging 367 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. Guess where this week’s game is? Matty Ice takes on a middle of the road defense in the Chicago Bears where the Falcons are 3 point favorites with an over/under of 55! Vegas expects the Falcons to put up 29 points and...

Daily fantasy football picks for Week 5 - DraftKings DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape. Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal. Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out. Week 5 is officially part of the data archives. I believe it was one of the best weekends ever for the daily fantasy community, namely thanks to DraftKings and their Millionaire Maker tournament. There seemed to be an invasion of new players aiming their sights on the seven-figure pay out. My hopes are that the new amateurs are officially addicted and will continue to flood the market…even though a well-known DF pro (user name: SamENole) came away with the victory and the million dollar first prize. Coincidentally, SamENole, also a professional poker player, lives in the same area as myself and plays cards at the same Hard Rock casino. I am sure I have shared a flop or two with this character, but don’t know him well enough to declare the next round is most definitely on him! Nevertheless, he entered approximately 60 lineups this week and found the ultimate pay dirt (P.S. I will further detail his winning lineup later in this post). Congratulations SamENole, it was the chance of a lifetime! Oh wait, no it wasn’t!? Breaking news!!! DraftKings are offering another Millionaire Maker! When you ask?! This week!! This is not a joke; immediately after week 5’s Millionaire Maker capped out at the maximum of 92,400 entrants (which equates to $184,800 in DK rake), DraftKings decided to offer the exact same contest in week 6. An extremely bold move considering they had been advertising the first Millionaire Maker for over a month and had been offering non-stop satellites all year. Now, DK will have only 6 short days to achieve the required 92,000+ entrants. I can only speculate that the influx of new players outweighs the possibility of losing a few thousand dollars (possibly closer to $100,000) on a guaranteed prize pool. Regardless, its win-win for us as the daring bid could result in some nice overlay while continuing to attract new DF players. Fortune favors...

Daily fantasy football picks for Week 5 - DraftKings DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape. Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, Draftster, and DraftKings. And now - for the next month - you can get access to our Football projection tools AND our baseball projection tools for the same price! Sick deal. Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out.Let me paint you a picture; see if it sounds familiar…It’s Saturday morning, one day prior to the Sunday Week 5 match ups. You’ve been looking forward to this week all year because of the highly publicized DraftKings Millionaire Maker Tournament where someone will be winning a life changing sum of money from just a small investment of $27. All week you have been preparing for Sunday. Your brain has been vociferous; weekday work meetings resemble sounds of Charlie Brown characters. 50% of your time spent reading every weekly picks article you can get your eyes on, while the other half, daydreaming about the overwhelming sensation of winning one million dollars in a two-day span. Drooling over the thoughts of being student-loan debt free, driving around in a new Tesla Model S, as your Twitter followers increase from 20 to 2,000 overnight because everyone wants a piece of the new fantasy football savant. By this time, you’ve read so many articles that the list of players you aren’t considering is smaller than the ones you are. Information overload. It’s only 24 hours before kickoff and you begin to panic. Should I pay for a QB or save my cap space for the RB position? Is “stacking” truly the best strategy?? What’s the weather going to be in Washington on Monday Night Football??? AHHHHHHH!! Calm down and breathe….This world at times can be very noisy, but hidden in all the noise is the answer; or as Nate Silver refers to it, the signal. Yes Nate, a free plug is coming. I have been reading The Signal and the Noise, a well-written, non-fiction book by Nate Silver. I highly suggest putting this book on your nightstand. Using the data of the past, to predict the results of the future, all while being stuck in the realm of the present. This is what all us DF-ers strive for. We analyze home/road splits, Vegas...