Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/1/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/1/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13200 Opponent - MIA (O'Grady) Park - @MIA FD - 41.99 DK - 27.66 There's no shortage of live arms on tonight's 15-game slate, but for SP1 purposes in cash games, Scherzer is the first one we're turning to. He's opened up as a -200 favorite, gets a forgiving park, and compared to the other elite ace on the slate -- Chris Sale -- he's got the easier matchup. The Marlins haven't been terrible against RHP this season, but they're below average with a 97 wRC+. Meanwhile, Scherzer remains one of the best pitchers in the game. He ranks among the top five in Ks/9 (12.45), ERA (2.23), FIP (2.83) and xFIP (3.08). He's also been one about as close as you'll find to a sure thing, with 9+ Ks in 15 of his 21 starts and 19 outings with at least 6 IP. Of course, he'll cost you, but the safety/upside package you get with Scherzer is worth it. Marcus Stroman FD 8500 DK 11000 Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW FD - 32.57 DK - 21.52 We like Stroman in this spot -- kind of a lot. The problem is so does the DK algorithm (and so does Vegas, for that matter). He's priced up too much to be an SP2, and we're not sure the upside is fully there to keep pace as an SP1. But the price on FanDuel and the fact that we've got high-priced Coors bats to consider on this slate, means we have to think about Stroman in all formats tonight. He's the heaviest favorite on the board (-215) as of Monday night, and he's facing a trade-depleted White Sox lineup that wasn't very good against RHP to begin with (28th in wRC+). And there's a lot to like about Stroman, regardless of matchup. He's been strong in 2017, with a 3.08 ERA more or less supported by a 3.62 FIP. The issue, as we alluded to, is Ks. He's only fanning about 7.5 per 9 IP, so we're going to have to count on the White Sox to help us out there -- and they just might. The lineup they rolled out Monday night had a 28 K% vs....
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/31/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/31/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. KANSAS CITY ROYALS You won't see the Royals leading this article often, but they've got a matchup tonight that looks too good to pass up. Ubaldo Jimenez is taking the hill for Baltimore, and that's enough to put any offense in consideration for top-stack status. Jimenez has been in rapid decline for the last four years, and enters the final 1/3 of the 2017 season with a career worst 5.85 FIP with 2.1 HRs/9. His biggest difficulties come against lefties, who own a .412 wOBA against him this season with 3 HRs/9. And even though the Royals don't give us a lot of lefties to choose from, we're happy to build around Hosmer (.377 wOBA vs. RHP) and Moustakas (.372 wOBA, .304 ISO). The short porch in right at Camden Yard, also amplifies the attraction to bottom-of-the-lineup dudes like Brandon Moss and Alex Gordon. And while lefties are our preferred bats against Ubaldo, we don't have to fade the righties. The .334 wOBA Jimenez is giving up against right-handed hitters isn't eye-popping, but it's well above average, and considering his struggles holding runners, Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain are definitely in play. CLEVELAND INDIANS Doug Fister gives us another golden opportunity for lefties, and while Fenway Park puts a damper on left-handed power, we like the Indians' chances to pile up some runs tonight. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Fister is giving up a .405 wOBA to lefties, and he'll be seeing five of them among Cleveland's top six hitters. Meanwhile, he's been pretty tough on righties, but we're not fulling willing to bet against Edwin Encarnacion's ability to take aim at the Green Monster. As a team, the Indians rank 6th in wRC+ and wOBA vs. RHP, but only 11th in ISO -- in other words, they don't rely on HRs to inflict significant offensive damage. They've got six regulars with a wOBA over .340 vs. RHP (Ramirez, Brantley, Almonte, Encarnacion, Zimmer, Santana) so you've got a variety of options throughout the lineup. Try out InGame Fantasy for a totally new DFS experience. Promo code: DFSR...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/31/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/31/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Sonny Gray FD 9500 DK 11700 Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @OAK FD - 29.24 DK - 19.4 Anybody throwing against the Giants is worth consideration right now, and Sonny Gray has been really good this year -- but this one comes with big caveat: Gray may not be playing for Oakland by the time first pitch comes around. He's been linked most recently to the Yankees and to a lesser extent the Braves, and it seems likely that some sort of deal gets worked out before the deadline expires. But assuming it doesn't, Gray's in a decent spot tonight. The Giants don't strike out much, but they rank 29th in wRC+ and dead last in team wOBA vs. RHP, so even if the ceiling isn't as high as we'd usually like, the floor is solid. Honestly, this feels more like a cash game play, but given the dearth of palatable SP options on tonight's eight-game slate (and the fact that we already wrote up two of the most attractive plays in the cash game article) Gray is kind of the best of what's left. He's got a 3.29 xFIP and 8.72 Ks/9 on the season, so even if he's not a good candidate for double-digit Ks, he should be among the top SP producers on the slate. Gio Gonzalez FD 8700 DK 11200 Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA FD - 30.64 DK - 20.34 Ok, if Gray is a little too "safe" for your GPP tastes, Gio should be right up your alley. A model of inconsistency for most of his career, Gonzalez is in the midst of one of his best seasons -- or at least that's what the surface stats would have us believe. But unlike 2012, when his 2.89 ERA was backed up by a 2.82 FIP, the underlying numbers this year say he's due for some regression (2.81 ERA/4.24 FIP). Typically, we'd prefer to steer clear of that kind of disparity, but we don't really have that luxury tonight if we're playing multiple lineups, so Gio has to at least be...
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/25/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/25/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. CLEVELAND INDIANS The Indians didn't open with the highest line in Vegas, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they start creeping that way as game time draws nearer. The weather is expected to be mild at Progressive Field, but it's a nice park for offense, and facing Jesse Chavez should make up for whatever the weather takes away. Chavez has been trending in the wrong direction on multiple fronts for about four years now with decreasing ground ball rates and strikeouts, as well as HR numbers (both total allowed and HR:FB) that are consistently on the rise. It's culminated in a 5.28 xFIP and a .342 wOBA allowed in 2017. Righties are doing the bulk of the damage this year (.370 wOBA), but he gave up .350+ wOBAs vs. lefties the previous two seasons, so we're not going to hesitate to roster any Indians hitter with the proven ability to handle RHP. They rank sixth in wRC+ vs. righties this season, they've got a handful of attractive options (especially at FanDuel pricing) to build around with Bradley Zimmer coming cheap and Encarnacion very moderately priced for a guy with his upside. Jose Ramirez (.414 wOBA, .279 ISO) and Michael Brantley (.368 wOBA) would be the next two on our list, and if you're playing all those guys, Lindor's .200 ISO makes him worth a look as well. MILWAUKEE BREWERS It makes me a little nervous to go against Vegas to this extent -- the Brewers' implied total is the 9th-highest on the board -- but I'd feel much less confident in fading a powerful offense against Edwin Jackson. The Milwaukee offense has cooled out considerably since a hot start, but there's still plenty of pop in this lineup. They've got a .191 ISO vs. RHP as a team, the core of Travis Shaw, Eric Thames and Domingo Santana all have a wOBA over .360, an ISO over .190, or both in the split this season. They're the clear building blocks and we might find another intriguing play or two depending on how the lineup shakes out....
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/25/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/25/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Charlie Morton FD 8600 DK 8800 Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI FD - 30.61 DK - 20.31 Tonight's 14-game slate is an interesting one for starting pitcher. We've got plenty of usable arms to choose from, but hardly anybody in a can't-miss spot for upside. As far as matchups go, Morton's might be the best. The park isn't ideal, but we've got no hesitation picking on the Phillies, who have been one of baseball's worst offenses vs. RHP, ranking 28th in wRC+ with the sixth-highest K% (23.5%) in the split. Morton, though, has run hot and cold most of the season. He's nearing 10 Ks/9, but he's giving up 3.58 BBs/9. He's got a solid 3.74 xFIP on the year, but has surrendered at least four runs in six of his 13 starts. That up-and-down trend has continued since he's come off the DL, but we're willing to take a shot on him tonight. That's due equally to his own talent (highest K/9 on the slate dating back to last season) and to the Phils' offensive ineptitude (one guy in the projected lineup with an ISO over .200 vs. RHP). Jon Gray FD 6900 DK 9000 Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @STL FD - 28.26 DK - 18.95 Ok, I don't actually love this play, but I think we have to talk about him, because I get the feeling he's going to be extremely popular, especially at that FanDuel price. And truthfully, that's part of the reason I'm not excited to roster him -- it feels like the enthusiasm (and ownership) for this guy outstrips the results. Don't get me wrong, he's talented. He's averaged 9.61 Ks/9 and has a respectable 3.62 xFIP through 45 big league starts. If he's on, he could definite rack up points against a so-so Cardinals offense (98 wRC+, 21 K% vs. RHP). So if you're building multiple lineups, I think some exposure is warranted. But personally, I'd prefer to be underweight relative to the rest of the field, because I think the risk attached is just as real and significant. Oddly,...