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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/8/17

Posted by on Aug 8, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 6 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/8/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitcher Chris Sale FD 11500 DK 12600 Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @TB FD - 46.56 DK - 30.74 Unless you're doing DFS wrong, your cash game SP1 is gonna come down to two choices on Tuesday: Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Both guys are legit aces, both are heavy favorites, the prices are similar (Sale cheaper on FD, Kluber cheaper on DK) and the projections for both are great. We're siding with Sale, but if you want to go with Kluber, I wouldn't argue too fiercely about it. And while both options are solid, there's a chance this call could make or break your cash game lineups, so it's vital to get it right. Sale has arguably been the best pitcher in the game this season, leading the league in Ks/9 and FIP with the second-best xFIP (to Kluber, coincidentally), and fourth-best ERA. He's almost never a bad play, and he gets a positive park shift going into Tropicana Field. Those facts alone are enough to justify the call, but we like the matchup here, too. The Rays are below average against LHP this season (96 wRC+) with a robust 25.6 K%. And while the addition of Adeiny Hechavarria and the return of Wilson Ramos have cut into their K tendencies, one of those guys we just mentioned is Adeiny Hechavarria. So, ya know, whatever. Every other hitter among their projected starters has a K rate over 20% against LHP this season, so there's upside in bunches for Sale tonight. Jose Quintana FD 8500 DK 10500 Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SF FD - 34.81 DK - 22.84 If you're determined to pivot off of Sale/Kluber -- a needless risk for cash games -- Quintana is interesting. You're not going to get the upside the studs can deliver, but then again you're not paying for it. Also working in Quintana's favor is the best pitcher's park in baseball and the fact that the Giants offense is sucky (advanced baseball jargon). San Fran ranks 26th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA and 29th in ISO vs. LHP this season. The one thing they don't do is strikeout -- no projected starter has a K rate over 20% vs. lefties -- and that...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/7/17

Posted by on Aug 7, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/7/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   WASHINGTON NATIONALS On a slate with this many mediocre pitchers, you'd expect a plethora of offenses in great spots, but that's not exactly the case tonight. There's only one truly great hitter's park in play, so the fact that Nationals Park is neutral for hitters isn't a deterrent at all. Neither is Marlins starter Chris O'Grady. He's a southpaw, which may not seem ideal for a lineup led by a pair of lefties, but the Nats have fared well in these matchups this season, ranking 5th in wRC+ vs. LHP, and O'Grady doesn't scare us. We've only seen 25 IP from him this season, and while his minor league numbers are solid, there's a probably a good reason why he didn't get his first crack at the majors until 27 years old (probably the same reason he's got an xFIP over 5 so far). Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman represent the most obvious building blocks here; since the start of last season, they own .396 and .347 wOBAs and .212 and .246 ISOs, respectively, against lefties. And though the sample size is too small to be fully trusted, there's really nobody among the Nats' projected starters who hasn't done solid work against LHP this year. Brian Goodwin, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Difo all have wOBAs over .380 and ISOs over .190 vs. lefties in 2017, and Matt Wieters is carrying a .338 wOBA and .220 ISO. The only name we haven't mentioned is Bryce Harper. And while his production in the split is modest this season, he's still Bryce Harper, so if you're building multiple Nats stacks, you're going to want some exposure. CINCINNATI REDS The Reds land here by virtue of playing in the only hitter-friendly park on the slate and of not being the Padres. Jhoulys Chacin has been pretty tough lately and has done a nice job of limiting the long ball this season, so we're not overly bullish on picking on him, but he's struggled overall against lefties (.350 wOBA, 5.20 xFIP), so the Reds give us a couple of enticing guys in...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/7/17

Posted by on Aug 7, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/7/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Carlos Martinez FD 8900 DK 8200 Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC FD - 33.7 DK - 22.42 There are three pitchers on this bleak, sad, seven-game slate who don't trigger a gag reflex. Scherzer and Arrieta are two (and we talked about them in the cash games article), so that leaves us with CarMart here. And he's fine. Actually, the full season numbers are pretty good (3.64 xFIP, 9.7 Ks/9), but we don't love picking on Kansas City, which has only two regulars with K rate > 19%. That said, it's not an especially powerful lineup and Kauffman Stadium is pretty forgiving. Where Martinez needs to be careful is with all those lefties. Left-handed hitters have fared well against him this season with .361 wOBA and .197 ISO, and the addition of Melky (and the absence of Salvador Perez) has given KC a lefty-centric heart of the order. On many slates, that might be enough to push us off of Martinez, but on this slate, we're beggars, not choosers when it comes to starting pitching. Trevor Williams FD 7000 DK 6200 Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @PIT FD - 23.64 DK - 15.65 I guess. He's a pretty big favorite (-159) and PNC Park is a nice place to pitch. That's obviously good news for Williams, but it could make him really chalky for SP2 purposes on DraftKings, and that erodes the attractiveness somewhat. He doesn't come with much upside (6.48 Ks/9), but he's been pretty tough on righties (.303 wOBA allowed, 7.4 Ks/9), which makes him interesting against a Tigers lineup that looks soft against righties, especially since the departure of J.D. Martinez and Alex Avila. Their projected starters hold a .312 wOBA and .153 ISO vs. RHP this season, and Justin Upton is the only guy with a wOBA over .350 or an ISO over .200. That said, batted ball data still says Miggy and Castellanos have been really unlucky, so regression could still come.  But the Tigers losing the DH spot in NL park, and the dearth of strong arms on the slate...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/1/17

Posted by on Aug 1, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/1/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   COLORADO ROCKIES Hey, I'd like to give you something a little less chalky here, but we can't avoid the Rockies tonight. Also: a 15-game slate and some very attractive high-dollar pitching options means ownership could be kept in check. But that's just bonus, because the Rockies have too many guys crushing southpaws for us to fade them against a struggling Steven Matz in Coors Field. For one thing, Matz relies heavily on his sinker and curveball, both of which tend to flatten out in the thin Denver atmosphere. So that's bad. Now consider that even under more favorable conditions, Matz is getting smashed this season giving up a 4.95 FIP and a .361 wOBA through nine starts. Maybe the live arm we saw last year is still in there somewhere, but until it re-emerges, we're going to be picking on him. That should be easy to do with Colorado. Four Rockies regulars have a wOBA over .380 against LHP since the start of last season (Arenado, Story, Blackmon, LeMahieu), and Gerardo Parra has done good work in limited PAs this season. NEW YORK YANKEES If the Rockies go off, the Yankees could be the offense in the best position to keep pace tonight. It takes a lot to make up for the advantage Coors offers, but look at we've got working in the Yankees'  favor tonight: 1) They rank 2nd in wRC+, third in wOBA and seventh in ISO vs. RHP this season; 2) Yankee Stadium is one of the better parks in baseball for HR factors 3) Anibal Sanchez is pitching; 4) A Tigers bullpen that has the worst ERA, FIP and xFIP in the league;  and 5) That bullpen lost its best reliever via trade last week. So, yeah. A lot to like here. Sanchez looked like he may have rediscovered his previous form after returning from a stint in Triple-A, but he's been slapped around in his three most recent starts, so we feel OK trusting that he's still the same guy who has a 5.07 FIP since the beginning of last year. Nearly any Yankee who turns your head...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/1/17

Posted by on Aug 1, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/1/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Chris Sale FD 11400 DK 13000 Opponent - CLE (Carrasco) Park - @BOS FD - 43.62 DK - 28.82 We went with Scherzer in the cash game picks, so we're writing up Sale here. But really, you can play either guy in whatever format you choose. The matchup against Cleveland is less than ideal -- the Indians rank fifth in wRC+ vs. LHP and have the second-lowest K% in the split. And that's why we landed on Scherzer in cash games. But for tourney purposes, we like Sale quite a bit. The abundance of good arms on tonight's 15-game slate should dilute his ownership, and while the Cleveland offense is stout, no offense is 100 percent Sale-proof. He leads all qualified starters in Ks/9 (12.8) and FIP (1.92), while ranking second in xFIP (2.65) and third in ERA (2.37). Jose Berrios FD 9200 DK 7700 Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SD FD - 33.33 DK - 22.01 Berrios has cooled off a bit since scorching the league through his first eight starts, but take a look at some of the offenses who have touched him up lately: the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros. Yeah, the top three offenses in baseball vs. RHP. Sure, the Royals got to him, too, but the point remains: the Padres will be the easiest matchup he's faced in a while. They have the highest K% in baseball vs. RHP (25.4%) and rank 25th vs. righties in wRC+. And even with the return of Yangervis Solarte, a solid contact hitter, their projected starters in tonight's lineup have a 26.3 K% vs. RHP. So the matchup is right, and the park favors pitching. The question is, which Berrios do we get. Honestly, I kinda think the good Berrios/bad Berrios thing is a false dichotomy. The 23-year-old has dynamic stuff and is capable of hitting double-digit Ks when he's on his game, and the over his struggles over the last six starts look like product of equal parts tough matchups and tough luck. He's given up a .364 BABIP during that span, and Statcast data says it hasn't...

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