Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/17/15 Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Make sure you follow Brent on Twitter @thebholloway Quick note on this slate: This one's a doozy. There are a lot of big-time hitters going against weak arms on the awesome side of their split. That being said, the sites have accounted for this and made a bunch of these guys cost-prohibitive. That, combined with a pitching situation that's less-than-enticing and you've got work cut out for you. We've highlighted here some of the better values on the day. But expect a lot of home runs tonight. Pitchers Clayton Kershaw - FD 12300 DK 12900 Maybe if the series stayed in Texas we’d have some reservations here. Probably not, though. That’s how wide the margin is between Kershaw and a pretty strong field tonight. The Rangers whiff more than the league average against lefties, and Dodger Stadium is historically a pitcher-friendly park. Not that Kershaw needs an assist, and any lingering questions should have be silenced by his last four starts. During that span, he’s tallied 39 Ks and walked six in 28.2 innings. He’s as good as he’s ever been, and even at these prices, he’s a sound investment. Consider: There are four other ace-level arms going tonight. The bad news is that they’re all facing each other. The projection systems has basically thrown its hands up and called for a push, with Johnny Cueto getting the slightest of value nods over David Price, Madison Bumgarner and Felix Hernandez. However,  if you just want fade Kershaw for some reason, we think Michael Pineda is your guy. Hesitation is understandable given what happened last time out and what the Marlins did last night. But what you might give up in safety with Pineda, you get back in upside and savings. *Note: You can consider going super cheap on arms today and loading up on Coors. But I wouldn't suggest it other than an upside tournament play. Guys like Drew Hutchinson and Jeff Locke come to mind here. Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out! Catchers Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2700 DK 3900 Lucroy is a sturdy, low-K cash gamer, even when he’s not facing Joe Blanton. About Blanton: he’s not historically bad or anything, but he’s also not as good as his numbers look right now. His seven prior appearances this season have all come out of the bullpen, and his much...

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/9/15 Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Make sure you follow Brent on Twitter @thebholloway Pitchers Corey Kluber - FD 11100 DK 10900 How good has Kluber been lately? An eight-inning, one-walk, nine-K outing against the Royals last time out was his worst start (by far) in about a month. And it was still good enough for 13 points on FanDuel. He’s the very image of cash-game greatness/consistency. Of course, he’s gonna cost you, but’s it’s a worthwhile expenditure. His Ks are actually up from last year’s already-lofty rates, and the walks are down, resulting in an xFIP (2.36) that far outpaces his current ERA and last year’s xFIP, as well. Also, the Mariners aren’t very good. This seems likewise significant. Only the Cubs and Astros strike out more against right-handed pitching, and their wOBA is 27th in the majors. Invest with confidence. James Shields - FD 9500 DK 9500 Shields hasn’t put up Kluber’s rock-star lines, but he represents a significant cost savings, and the dude has been solid. Pretty much out of nowhere he’s striking out 11 per nine innings, and he’s thrown fewer than six innings just once this year. Shields’ numbers are benefitting from a pretty significant home/road split this season, but digging a little deeper, it’s easy to see why. And it’s not Petco. At least not entirely. His worst outings of the season have come at Chase Field and Coors Field, and such are the hazards of life as a starting pitcher in the NL West. Fortunately for Shields, Turner Field is an altogether different kind of venue. Whereas the two former are renowned for their hitter-friendliness, Turner Field is on the pitcher side of neutral in overall park factors. That said, the Braves don’t strike out much at all this year and actually aren’t a terrible offensive team, so don’t think you’re getting that discount for no reason. That’s why my money (and many, many others’, I assume) will be on Kluber. But if you want some separation, Shields is a safe place to get it. Noah Syndergaard - FD 8000 DK 8700 But maybe safety’s not really your thing. The good and bad of Syndergaard was on full display in his last start when he got chased after four innings, giving up 10 hits and seven runs. Still, his start wasn’t a total disaster from a DFS perspective because he had 10 Ks. Through four innings. That ability to miss bats coupled with...

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/1/15 Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Andrew Cashner - FD 8300 DK 8000 We promise, this is not the projection system’s attempt at a hot take. It might be a little surprising to see the dude with a 2-7 record atop a pitching slate that includes some bona fide studs, but for a variety of reasons, we’re not so high on the bigger names from a points-per-dollar perspective. Also, win-loss records hold neither predictive nor descriptive value, so who cares. Anyway, here’s what we like about Cashner: No. 1, Petco. Cashner’s been burned by the home run this year, with a HR-to-fly ball ratio that’s double last season’s rate and 50 percent higher than his career average. Even if that’s not entirely luck-related, the fact that he’ll be pitching in one of most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the majors should help keep the ball in the park tonight. He’s also running on the bad side of his career BABIP allowed, hasn’t pitched fewer than six innings in any start this season, and is striking out nearly a batter per inning. It adds up to a relatively safe play and potentially a good way to achieve differentiation in your tourney lineups. Clay Buchholz - FD 7900 DK 7000 So if you thought we were trolling you with the first pick we probably can’t convince you otherwise now. Buchholz has been kind of all over the place for going on two years now, but there’s actually a lot to like in his peripherals. Pretty much every stat points to the fact that he’s just been flat unlucky on BABIP. His K-rate is up (to a very nice 9.25 per 9), the walk rate is down, home runs are down and his strand rate is still slightly below his career average. Put simply: he’s pitching better right now than he did when he went 12-1 in 2013 or when he won 17 games in 2010. Remember what we were saying about the uselessness of W/L records? As far as the matchup, the Twins’ OPS vs. righties is in the bottom third of the league and their strikeout rate is in the top six. The value upside is there for Buchholz tonight. Clayton Kershaw - FD 11800 DK 10700 I can’t see myself pulling the trigger here, but like we said before his last start, Kershaw is among the very best in the game and has to be considered every time he takes the...

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/26/15 Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Clayton Kershaw - FD 11000 DK 12200 The Braves are a tough bunch to strike out, and they’ll be throwing their ace. Those should be your only real concerns when it comes to paying for Kershaw tonight. The fact that Madison Bumgarner took him deep last time out is only indicative of the bad homer luck that is artificially inflating Kershaw’s ERA this year. His K rate is actually up, and while the walk rate is up too, it’s not problematic. There are a lot of really good pitchers in the game right now and the gap between CK and everybody else may be shrinking, but this is still the best pitcher in the game and should be in cash-game consideration every time he takes the mound. Danny Salazar - FD 9300 DK 9100 It’ll be interesting to see how much love Salazar gets tonight from the DFS community. I’m guessing he’ll be a pretty popular play in tournaments, and I’ll be trotting up out with at least one lineup. He’s striking out 12.37 per game right now and the Rangers are a tick over league average in K-rate against righties, so the upside is bananas. He’s been a high-variation guy at this early stage in the career, but he’s really had only one bad start since getting the call in mid-April and he’s not walking people this season. If that control is real, this is an ace at a relative bargain in a favorable matchup. You’ve got plenty of options when it comes to pitching tonight, but I think you’d be well advised to work Salazar in somewhere. Clay Buchholz - FD 8000 DK 7700 Speaking of high-variation guys. Good luck figuring what you’re getting out of this dude on any given night. The upside is there, especially on a per-dollar basis: he’s striking out nearly 10 per 9, the walk rate is down, his BABIP appears due for favorable regression, and he’s getting ground balls. All of the preceding is why his xFIP is outpacing his ERA by a run and a half. The reason somebody with those credentials can be had at this price point is because when he’s bad, he tends to be awful. He’s had nine starts this year, and in four of those he’s tallied fewer than 10 fantasy points. In two of them he had less than 3. For that reason, I wouldn’t recommend over-investing, but...

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/22/15 Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.   Pitchers Lots of good arms to choose from tonight, but… Max Scherzer - FD 11700 DK 12700 Scherzer stands above the rest for me. The only question is, are you willing to pay? Here’s why I think you should: Not surprisingly, Scherzer looks like an even better pitcher now that he’s on the Senior Circuit. His Ks are up a tick and his walks are way down. If there’s any regression coming, it’s gonna be via the long ball, but the Phils aren’t the team suited to punish him with power. They’re last in the league in home runs and slugging percentage by a decent margin. My only reservation is that Philadelphia actually makes decent contact on the whole, but I think the win likelihood mitigates the risk than Scherzer only fans five or six instead of his usual nine or 10. Pay up and trust your ability to find bargain bats. Zack Greinke - FD 9900 DK 10400 Or not. The savings you could pick up with Greinke compared to Scherzer are not insignificant, so I get it if you wanna go this route. Greinke’s upside is somewhat limited by a K-rate that’s off his career average and the fact that he hasn’t worked more than seven innings yet this season. Even so, he’s a pretty safe place to put your fantasy dollars. He’s benefited from a ridiculously high strand rate this season, but he doesn’t walk anybody, and the Padres strike out more than the league average against righties. Gerrit Cole - FD 9400 DK 9200 Or maybe you’d prefer door No. 3. It probably depends on how scared of Noah Syndergaard you are. Our projection system gives the Mets rookie quite a bit of respect, which diminishes Cole’s chances for a win somewhat, but I’m ok with that. Cole’s peripherals are almost as good as the surface stats, and he’s striking out more than a batter per inning. He’s the real thing, folks. The Mets are right around league average in K-rate vs. righties, but really kinda terrible by everything other metric. Don’t believe me? Ask their .628 team OPS. Looking to get some separating from the field? Consider: Rick Porcello. Remember how bad the Mets are against right-handed pitching? The Angels are the only team worse. Porcello’s HR problems are still a thing, but his K numbers are back to 2013’s semi-respectable levels. I dunno. Maybe that’s enough to give...