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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/6/17

Posted by on Jun 6, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 2 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/6/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitcher Max Scherzer FD 11900 DK 13000 Opponent - LAD (McCarthy) Park - @LAD FD - 40.31 DK - 26.53 It can be tough to pay up for pitching when Coors Field is on the slate, and the Dodgers are not a fun team to pick on. There you have, in its entirety, the case against Max Scherzer. Regarding the former, the tag on DK is hefty and if it pushes you off, so be it. You've got another high-caliber arm in a better spot with a better price you can turn to (see below). But as good as Chris Archer is, he's still a tier away from Scherzer, especially when it comes to reliability. Scherzer has notched a quality start in 9 of 11 tries this season, and he's recorded at least 6 Ks every time out. He's also recorded double-digit Ks five times, and had 9 in another start, so he's obviously not lacking for upside, either. Of course, we can't ignore the fact that the Dodgers are a formidable foe, but they may not be *quite* as imposing as you might think. They cemented their righty-wrecking reputation last season, ranking 2nd in wRC+, and while they've been good in the split this season, they're a little off that pace, ranking 7th in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA vs. RHP. They also strikeout quite a bit, ranking 7th with a 23.2 K% in the split. So while they have to be respected, we don't think they have to be feared by the likes of Scherzer. Chris Archer FD 10700 DK 10600 Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @TB FD - 39.45 DK - 25.9 All that said, we're totally cool just taking the discount and playing Archer, because the White Sox have an identical 23.2 K% and are one of the worst offenses in baseball vs. RHP, ranking 28th in wRC+ and wOBA. Archer can't match Scherzer when it comes to dependability, but he can come pretty close in upside. He's fanning 10.78 per 9 IP this year, and after a hiccup last season, he's back to doing an excellent job of controlling the long ball. That adds up to a 2.73 FIP/3.35 xFIP which will definitely work in a pitcher-friendly park...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/5/17

Posted by on Jun 5, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/5/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   HOUSTON ASTROS Kauffman Stadium isn't a great place for power -- in fact, it's one of the worst parks in the majors for home run factors. This is not new information. But what goes unnoticed, or at least frequently unmentioned in the DFS universe, is the fact that it's actually an overall favorable environment for offense, especially as we creep into summer. And with temps expected to be approaching 90 degrees at game time, we'll have summertime conditions in Kansas City tonight. All that to say: the park doesn't help us if we're hunting homers, but it's also not a good reason to fade what might be the best offense in baseball. And make no mistake about it, other than the Nationals, nobody is producing like the Astros in 2017. They rank first in wRC+, second in wOBA, second in OBP, second in slugging, and second in ISO -- and they also have the lowest K% in baseball vs. RHP. So, yeah. Lots to like in this lineup, and the matchup isn't bad either. Ian Kennedy's strikeouts are declining for the second straight year, while the walks and homers are both way up, leading to a 5.16 xFIP that mirrors his 5.12 ERA. Now consider that he's benefiting from a ridiculously low .203 BABIP and you get a picture of how badly things are going for the 32-year-old. As for which Astros to use, take your pick. Alex Bregman, Brian McCann and Nori Aoki are the only regulars who don't have a wOBA over .340 or an ISO over .190 vs. RHP this season. Carlos Correa (.404 wOBA, .247 ISO) and Marwin Gonzalez (.455, .354) have done the most damage. ATLANTA BRAVES Bartolo Colon is starting and the Braves are favored. This rare concurrence tells us all we need to know about how Vegas views Phillies starter Nick Pivetta. In four big-league starts, the 24-year-old righty has served up five homers in just 19.1 IP, and while his 21% HR:FB ratio will probably regress (assuming he's not sent back to Lehigh Valley before it can), he's gonna have to figure...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/5/17

Posted by on Jun 5, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/5/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Jeff Samardzija FD 8900 DK 8900 Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @MIL FD - 34.02 DK - 22.64 There's always risk when you take a pitcher against the Brewers, and it's amplified when they're in the homer-happy confines of Miller Park. Milwaukee ranks fifth in MLB with a .189 team ISO this season and it's .198 at home, so the long-ball concerns give us pause. But this slate doesn't offer much as far as sure-fire starting pitchers, and Samardzija has some upside here that makes him worth a roll of the dice, because while the Brewers can definitely launch a couple, there's also plenty of swing-and-miss in this lineup. They rank third in baseball with a 24.9 K% vs. RHP, and Shark is inducing a career high 10.5 Ks/9 in 2017. His swinging strike rate (11.1%) may not totally back that up, but it's also tied for a career-best, so there's something to believe there. Samardzija's difficulty in preventing runs in 2017 springs from a .340 BABIP that looks like it's due for some hefty regression. His hard-hit rate (28.8%) is more or less in line with his career rates, while his soft contact is up (22%), so something closer to his career .296 BABIP should probably be expected and would help his 4.63 ERA fall more in line with his 2.84 xFIP. Unfortunately, on a pitching-starved slate, he'll probably be pretty highly owned, and that tempers our enthusiasm for this pick, but we'd still rather play it than fade it. Dan Straily FD 8500 DK 9100 Opponent - CHC (Butler) Park - @CHC FD - 30.05 DK - 19.97 With similar prices, we'd expect Straily to come in with lower ownership levels, and even though he's got a tough matchup, he's actually not in a bad spot here. For one thing, the Cubs have greatly under-performed relative to their talent in 2017, with bottom-tier numbers vs. RHP (25th in wRC+ and wOBA). For another thing, the wind is expected to be blowing in at 15 mph tonight in Wrigley, which should help turn all those fly balls Straily...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 5/31/17

Posted by on May 31, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/31/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   TAMPA BAY RAYS Tip your cap to Austin Bibens-Dirkx. For 11 years he's been toiling in small towns, riding buses, bouncing around the minor leagues while nearly everybody he started out with moved on to the majors or just moved on with their lives. He finally got the call to the big leagues earlier this month, working out of the Texas bullpen, and tonight he'll be making his first MLB start. It'll be a proud moment, a testament to his drive and persistence, and it's easy to be happy for the guy. So tip your cap to him, and then grab all the Tampa Bay bats you can, beccause the dude's probably gonna get shelled. Bibens-Dirx has a pretty average minor-league track record, as you might guess from the fact that nobody saw fit to call him up before he was 32 years old, and he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which should make him vulnerable tonight. The Rays have one of the most potent offenses in baseball vs. RHP, ranking 2nd in team ISO (.198) and third in wRC+. Of course, they also strike out a bunch (26%), so the boom-or-bust thing is real. But in Globe Life Park against a pitcher who appears to be replacement level (at best), the odds are in their favor tonight. BOSTON RED SOX Ok. Mike Pelfrey. He's not good. He's got a 4.56 career ERA and a 4.59 xFIP, which tells us he's precisely as bad as we think he is. And since the beginning of last season the xFIP is at 5.05, so he's getting worse, and at 33 years old, he's unlikely to reverse the decline. But we also have to mention that he's been able to hang around the big leagues for more than a decade because he still knows how to eat innings without getting totally destroyed. Bottom line, you can count on Boston to get to him, just don't expect and avalanche of runs and homers -- which might make them better in a supporting role, instead of a full stack surrounded by a couple of one-offs....

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 5/31/17

Posted by on May 31, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/31/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers James Paxton FD 8800 DK 8200 Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @SEA FD - 34.83 DK - 22.9 The question here is what kind of leash will Paxton be on as he makes his return from the DL. As of Wednesday morning, there's been no announcement of a pitch count limitation, but you'd have to think the Mariners are going to be careful with their emerging ace in his first big-league action in four weeks. However, if we were to get word that he's cleared to throw 90-plus pitches, Paxton's definitely a guy we need to look at in GPPs. Prior to getting shelved with a forearm injury, he was pitching like one of the game's best, notching 10.75 Ks/9 with a 1.43 ERA/1.52 FIP in six starts. Also, with the series moving away from Coors Field, the Rockies' offense becomes much less-imposing, especially against southpaws. They rank 19th in wRC+ vs. LHP this season, with a healthy 23.4% K rate. Dan Straily FD 8200 DK 9000 Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @MIA FD - 32.87 DK - 21.75 Early slate special here. We're not completely sold on Straily -- he's still walking too many guys and he's due for some BABIP regression -- but he's in a good spot today. He's striking out a batter per inning in 10 starts this year, and the Phillies should help him keep that going. They've got a 22.3 K% vs. RHP this season, which isn't egregious, but isn't great, either -- and that's actually one of their better numbers relative to the rest of the league. They rank 25th in both wOBA and wRC+ vs. righties this season, and 26th in team ISO. So the matchup is soft, and the park provides a nice cushion for all those fly balls Straily gives up. Don't get carried away, though. Straily's no sure thing. He's made it out of the sixth inning in only two starts, and the Phillies have guys who will work the count, which could lead to a shorter outing than we'd like. For that reason, we're not...

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