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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/20/17

Posted by on Jun 20, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 5 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/20/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitcher Chris Sale FD 11700 DK 13200 Opponent - KC (Strahm) Park - @KC FD - 44.59 DK - 29.48 After a short run in which he appeared to be mortal, Chris Sale returned to his early-season form last time out with another 10-K performance. Of course, it was against the Phillies, but the Royals are actually slightly worse than the Phils against LHP this season. KC doesn't strike out much, but we don't worry too much about that when it comes to elite bat-missers. Maybe he whiffs seven or eight instead of double digits, but he's getting a solid park shift at Kauffman, so it almost evens out. The price is high, of course, but the relative security you get with an elite pitcher is worth it more often than not in cash games. And make no mistake, Sale is elite. He's fanning better than 12 per 9 IP with a 1.78 FIP and 2.61 xFIP. Don't hesitate to use him heavily tonight. Michael Pineda FD 8900 DK 10600 Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @NYY FD - 35.12 DK - 23.11 If you're spending on SP in cash games (and you should) we'd advocate avoiding half-measures and just going with Sale. But there's a case to be made for Pineda at a pretty decent discount. The Angels were already a pretty weak offense with Mike Trout in the lineup, and while they haven't completely tanked without the best baseball player on the planet, there's not much here that scares us. Meanwhile, Pineda is doing his usual thing: striking out about a guy per inning, keeping the walks low and coaxing a nice number of ground balls. Unfortunately his usual thing also includes a meatball or two per outing that gets sent into the bleachers. That's problematic, especially in Yankee Stadium, but the Angels rank 25th in team ISO vs. RHP, so there's less risk tonight than Pineda typically faces. Brandon McCarthy FD 7900 DK 6400 Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @LAD FD - 32.91 DK - 21.6 As far as SP2 options, McCarthy is hands down our guy as projection system's top points-per-dollar play on the slate. The matchup isn't an easy one, as the Mets handle righties pretty well...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/19/17

Posted by on Jun 19, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/19/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   SEATTLE MARINERS Ok, so the park isn't great, but we're just going to have to live with that tonight, because the opportunity to pick on the corpse of Anibal Sanchez doesn't come around often these days. The decline of the formerly decent Sanchez has been in full swing for a while now, and barring some unforeseeable return to his 2013 form, he's going to pitching in independent leagues soon. He was recalled from Triple-A for what will be his first start this season, but what we've seen from him out of the bullpen this year is even worse than the 5.87 ERA/5.06 FIP/4.62 xFIP he put up in 2016. His struggles are plentiful, but righties are giving him the most trouble, with a .392 wOBA since the beginning of last year. But that doesn't mean we need to skip over Cano, Seager, Gamel, et. al., because Sanchez's .344 wOBA allowed vs. lefties is pretty bad, too. We really like everybody in Seattle's top 5 here. Gamel, Haniger, Cano and Cruz all have wOBAs north of .360 vs. RHP this season, and of those four, only Gamel doesn't have an ISO over .200. CHICAGO CUBS The Cubs' prolonged struggles vs. RHP this season is kind of obscuring the fact that they've still been pretty good vs. LHP. They rank 3rd in wRC+, 2nd in wOBA and 3rd in ISO vs. southpaws this season, and they should be able to take advantage of a matchup with Clayton Richard with the wind breezing out in Wrigley tonight. Not that Richard has been bad, and you're probably going to want to fade the lefties against him -- even Rizzo. He's coaxing a 77% groundball rate against left-handed hitters, which is extreme. Against righties, it's 52%, which is on the high end, but not overly worrisome, considering the .355 wOBA he's still giving up in the split. As always, your Cubs stack against a southpaw is going to start with Kris Bryant. He's got an absurd .495 wOBA and .356 ISO against LHP this season, so we can't fathom a scenario in which we're stacking...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/19/17

Posted by on Jun 19, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/19/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Brad Peacock FD 7200 DK 8100 Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @OAK FD - 29.27 DK - 19.38 The good news is that Peacock bounced back from a terrible start with 10 Ks in his last time out. The bad news is he lasted just 4.2 innings. The good news is that he threw 96 pitches; the bad news is that it was a season high. The good news is that Oakland ranks 4th in K% vs. RHP this season; the bad news is that they're also in the top 10 in ISO. We could keep going, but you get the point. Here we have your classic risk/reward GPP play, but by our calculations, the latter outweighs the former tonight. Peacock looks like he's fully stretched out after starting the season in the bullpen, and he has pitched like an elite strikeout guy since moving into the rotation at the end of May. I mean, it's only 22+ IP, but 36 Ks is a head-turner. Unfortunately, he's also walking a bunch of guys, which is prematurely running up his pitch count and leading to short outings -- he's made it out of the fifth only once -- and that's really what we're most concerned with here. But we're OK with taking a chance in this spot. The spacious foul ground in Oakland should help shorten an inning or two and a little help on the margins could be all Peacock needs to return nice value tonight.   Jake Odorizzi FD 7700 DK 7400 Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @TB FD - 30 DK - 19.89 Odorizzi has been sliding over the last couple of years, but he remains a very usable guy when he's within the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field. He's allowed just a .292 wOBA at home this season (compared to .347 on the road), and though the HRs allowed are concerning, his xFIP at the Trop is still serviceable at 3.92. Of course, there's not a ton of upside here. Odorizzi has consistently been in the 8 Ks/9 range, and the Reds strike out...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/13/17

Posted by on Jun 13, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/13/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   HOUSTON ASTROS If you're having a hard time finding many non-obvious pitching choices you like today, there's a good reason why. Vegas has seven of the offenses on the main slate with implied run totals north of five, and one more (Toronto) pretty close. Many, many choices tonight when it comes to stacking, so we apologize in advance if these picks come off as a little chalky, but even on slate that's this offense-centric, there's no way we can not talk about the Astros taking on Nick Martinez. There's just no reason to get cute here. The Astros are one of the best lineups in baseball, ranking 2nd in wOBA and wRC+ vs. RHP, with a league-best 18% K rate. Meanwhile, Nick Martinez is on the polar opposite end of the excellence spectrum. In other words, he's terrible. He doesn't strike people out, he gives up loads of homers, and he gets mashed by lefties (.354 career wOBA) and righties (.348). To give you an idea of how bad he's been, his 4.99 xFIP this season would represent a career best if he can hold it. Of course, the Astros won't come cheap, but it's not like you're paying Coors-type premiums here, so you should be able to fit them in, especially if you go the discount route at SP. Virtually every guy in the lineup is in play. All of the following have a wOBA over .340 vs. RHP this season: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Marisnick (small sample alert), Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick and Evan Gattis. You'll notice George Springer and Carlos Beltran are not included, but they've both got an ISO over .200 in the split, so you can play them, too. WASHINGTON NATIONALS Knuckleballers are tough, and perhaps no pitch type comes with more variance. But that fact kinda makes them the perfect guys to pick on in GPPs, because when they're bad, they tend to get blown up. And Dickey has been frequently bad this season, yielding at least four runs in four of his last seven starts. And of course,...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/13/17

Posted by on Jun 13, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/13/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Pitchers Jon Lester FD 9400 DK 8800 Opponent - NYM (Wheeler) Park - @NYM FD - 31.65 DK - 20.93 We've got some nice arms on this slate, but once you move past the top tier or so, it gets sketchy pretty quick. Not that every arm in the middle class is weak, but whether it's a bad matchup or a bad park, there's something that has us skittish about most of the guys out there tonight. So while we don't totally love Lester here, we don't mind him at these prices. He's got K-per-inning stuff, and as far as the things that are most directly under his control, he's been pretty close to the same guy he was last year. The walks are up a tick, but his bigger problems appear to be related to BABIP, strand rate and HR:FB ratio, and he's due for some positive regression in all three. Righties are giving him some issues this season (.338 wOBA), but the longer track record is strong (.291 wOBA since the beginning of 2016), so while we're on alert, we're not overly concerned yet. Also, the Mets are below average against southpaws this season (90 wRC+), and Yoenis Cespedes, their biggest lefty killer, looks iffy after leaving Monday's game early. If Cespedes is back in there, we'll have to think twice about using Lester, but without him, this isn't a lineup we're afraid of. Zack Wheeler FD 8400 DK 7300 Opponent - CHC (Lester) Park - @NYM FD - 28.04 DK - 18.71 Or, just pivot to the other side of this matchup -- and for SP2 purposes, that's what I'd prefer, because the DK price is pretty inviting. Despite all the firepower lurking in the Cubs lineup, they have some very real and ongoing issues with RHP in 2017. After getting shut down by deGrom on Monday, they now rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ and wOBA vs. righties this season. To put that into context, that's better than the Padres and Phillies by only the slimmest possible margins. Now, we still don't think these struggles...

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