Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/4/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/4/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher EARLY Chris Archer FD 9900 DK Opponent - CHC (Lester) Park - @CHC FD - 34.12 DK - 22.7 We're not totally accustomed to recommending pitchers against the Cubs in cash games, but that's the world we're living in midway through 2017. The Cubs have been dreadful against RHP, and while there's still enough talent in the lineup to conjure a dramatic turnaround, until it manifests itself, we're gonna have to treat them like the team they've been -- one ranked 24th in the league in wRC+ vs. RHP. Meanwhile, Archer just keeps doing his thing. He's fanned better than 10 per 9 IP since the beginning of 2015, and with the exception of a hiccup last season, he does a great job of limiting the long ball. That can be tricky in Wrigley, and you'll need to check wind conditions before using Archer with confidence, but assuming something in the neighborhood of neutral, Archer looks like a strong play on the early slate. He's coming off a couple of subpar outings, but we're not concerned. His ability to miss bats covers a lot of mistakes, and no other arm on the slate can match his upside (five double-digit K games this season). Consider: Jon Lester. As of Monday night, both sites have John Lackey tabbed as the Cubs SP, but every other source of record has Lester going Tuesday, followed by Lackey on Wednesday. If DK and FD get Lester added to the slate, he might edge out Archer as our favorite play among the early games. LATE Corey Kluber FD 12000 DK Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @CLE FD - 47.06 DK - 0 We're going ever so slightly against the grain with Kluber over Kershaw, but really, it's hard to say there's a wrong answer here. Kluber has a marginally better matchup, is slightly cheaper, and actually has better advanced numbers. Kershaw gets the better park and also is Clayton Kershaw. Both guys are studs, and exposure to both is recommended in some form or another. Really, we're choosing to write up Kluber for just a couple of reasons: 1) the projection system is giving him a narrow edge in terms of value, and 2) it seems like his...
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/3/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/3/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. TEXAS RANGERS Even on an eight-game slate, we've got a lot of options for stacking tonight, with six offenses projected for five runs or more. The Rangers don't come with the highest implied total, and even though he's struggling some this year, tonight's foe Rick Porcello is far from the worst arm on the slate. But the blow-up potential is certainly present, and on FanDuel, the prices on the Rangers bats are very tempting. The deeper we get into 2017, the more last year's Cy Young campaign is looking like an outlier for Porcello. He's still limiting walks, and his Ks are actually up a bit, but he's getting hit hard. Sure, there's probably some back luck in that .367 BABIP, but he's also giving up 42% hard contact, so it's not like he's just getting burned by bloopers. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been pretty average vs. RHP this season, but they've got some legit pop, with the sixth-ranked ISO in baseball in the split (.196). You've also got plenty of guys to choose from scattered throughout the lineup to choose from. Beltre, Choo, Gomez, Andrus, Mazara, Gallo and Chirinos all own an OPS over .800 vs. righties this season. BOSTON RED SOX A couple of things here make this an interesting play. A) The Red Sox don't hit for great power. B) Martin Perez, while bad, doesn't give up many homers. So, not an ideal combo for stacking, right? Maybe, maybe not. But what I'm more worried about is the fact that Boston's recent offensive bonanza (29 runs in the last three games) is going to drive up their ownership, because it's one thing to stack up an offense without the expectation of 3-4 homers, but it's a lot less appealing if 1/3 of the field is going to be on the same stack. That's troublesome, because the Red Sox have the highest implied total on the board, so they could end up pretty chalky. But as far as the lack of power goes, I'm not all that worried, because this offense can pile up runs without the...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/3/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/3/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Masahiro Tanaka FD 9000 DK 9900 Opponent - TOR (Stroman) Park - @NYY FD - 30.43 DK - 20.2 Ugh. Not loving this pitching slate. We're completely devoid of studs, and even the possible diamonds in the rough start looking more like counterfeits on closer inspection. So, here we are with Tanaka, a guy giving up more than 2 HRs/9 in 2017, pitching in a park that isn't going to give him any cushion in that regard. But if we squint, we can make out the faintest reasons for optimism. He's been better lately, with three solid starts out of his last four. During that time, he's got a 31% K rate and a sub-3.00 xFIP, so that's great. On the other hand, it's only a 24-inning sample size and he's still giving up homers, so let's not get carried away. He could be due for some positive HR regression, though. He's always been above the norm in terms of HR:FB ratio, but his 23% rate in 2017 is bonkers. We have to assume that's gonna come down some, so even if his 3.87 xFIP is a little on the optimistic side, it could be closer to the truth than his 5.56 ERA or his 5.13 FIP. Not exactly a rousing recommendation, I know. But the fact is Tanaka is one of the better upside plays on the slate, and his cost isn't prohibitive. Go ahead and roll him out in at least a couple of lineups. Andrew Moore FD 5500 DK 5500 Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @SEA FD - 28.65 DK - 18.99 On the absolute opposite end of the price spectrum, we've got rookie Andrew Moore making his second big-league start. He was solid in his debut, working 7 IP with six hits, three runs and four Ks against the Tigers, and that (plus the ultra-low price) could make him a popular play today. So if that makes you want to fade, I get it. He's not an elite prospect, and the minor league numbers show us a guy who isn't a likely candidate for big-time...
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/20/16
Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/20/16 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. NEW YORK YANKEES So...as of Tuesday morning, the Yankees implied team total (6.41) is more than a run higher than either team in Coors Field tonight. Have mercy on young Parker Bridwell, because the Yankess, most likely, will not. The breeze is blowing out in Yankee Stadium tonight, and this is not an offense that needs much help at the moment. They lead baseball in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and OBP vs. righties this season, and they're second in ISO. Meanwhile, Bridwell has a mediocre minor league resume that includes getting moved to the bullpen last season, as well as a history of home run/control issues. Basically, he's being asked to lasso a freight train armed with a roll of toilet paper. Of course, this is baseball and anything can happen, but in terms of probability, this is looking like a bloodbath. The Yankees in play are limited only by your imagination and salary cap, but all things being equal, our favorites are Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner. CLEVELAND INDIANS In case you've missed it, things are not going well for Chris Tillman these days. After five shutout innings in his early-May season debut, he's headed directly downhill, giving up at least three runs in every start since then, including at least five runs in three of his last four with eight home runs and 22 runs allowed in his last 15 IP. We don't like to play the hot/cold streak game necessarily, but Tillman was a mediocre pitcher already, and with this year's results included, he looks downright bad. Lefties are really mashing him, and even though the sample size is small, a .418 xwOBA tells us they've earned the damage they've done. Vegas has taken notice, and has the implied Cleveland total at 5.92 and climbing, and don't expect the Indians bats to fly under the radar in GPPs tonight either. You can fade if you want -- you've got plenty of nice spots to pivot to -- but we can't recommend it. We're obviously targeting all those lefties to take advantage...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/20/17
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/20/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Francisco Liriano FD 7400 DK 6700 Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX FD - 24.97 DK - 16.84 I really didn't want to have to do this, but aside from the guys we recommended as cash game picks, there's not much to like about the SP options on this slate. So, here we are, dancing with the devil. Listen, if you choose to roster Liriano, you already know what you're getting. He's got double-digit K upside, but he's just as likely to issue half a dozen free passes and get yanked in the fifth after giving up a three-run tater. We've mostly seen bad Liriano this season, but he was sharp last time out (7 IP, 9 Ks, 2 ER vs. Tampa Bay), so maybe give you something to dream on. Also, the Rangers rank 28th in wRC+ and strike out a ton (26.6%) vs. LHP, so there's reason for optimism. Realistically, though, this dart toss. The good news is at these prices, the bar is set pretty low, and if Liriano can find the zone frequently enough to last six innings, he could make a solid SP2. Francis Martes FD 6500 DK 5800 Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @OAK FD - 23.55 DK - 11.6 Ok, so the projection system isn't totally sold on Martes quite yet. That's understandable. He's 21 years old, has a paper-thin track record and a history of command issues (7+ BBs/9 in eight Triple-A starts this season. YIKES.). And even though he's considered a borderline-elite prospect, we'd typically need to see more than one solid start to make us feel good about recommending this kind of guy. Actually, we still don't feel good about it, but we've already done Liriano, so the seal on boom-or-bust arms has already been broken. Martes went five innings in his first big league start last week against the Rangers, with a pretty nice line (7 Ks, 3 H, 1 R). But he also walked two, hit a guy and uncorked a wild pitch, so command issues persist. Oakland isn't a terrible matchup, though. They're above average vs....