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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 3 Sunday 9/22/24
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Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson FD 8800 DK 7500
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 22.71 DK - 22.71
It can feel weird paying all the way up for quarterback on these NFL DFS slates, though it does get a bit easier to do so on FanDuel than DraftKings. There is just a class of guys considerably safer than the rest of the pack, mostly because of the overall rushing attempts and ability to keep the scoring floor higher because of what they can do on the ground.
Lamar Jackson is one of those guys, Jalen Hurts is another. Jackson ran a whopping 16 times in the first game of the season, just five in Week 2 against the Raiders. But this is a core part of his game, making up for the lower completion percentage (63%) so far to start the year. The Ravens have the second-highest implied total on the slate heading into Dallas who just got shredded in Week 2.
Baker Mayfield FD 7700 DK 6300
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 18.97 DK - 18.97
We usually default to running quarterbacks in cash games, for some of the reasons listed with Lamar Jackson, but there is a case for Baker Mayfield here. He's facing off against the Broncos who've been bad on defense, ranking 6th-worst in defensive DVOA through the first two weeks.
Mayfield ranks first in QB fantasy scoring through two weeks, is completing 74% of his passes, and has taken off on the ground eight times through three games. I don't mind the floor here and he fits right into that pricing middle ground at the position.
Deshaun Watson FD 7300 DK 5500
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 20.16 DK - 20.16
Ok, I know, but stick with me here. The Giants stink on defense, and Deshaun Watson is coming very cheap on DraftKings. Where QB savings really matters on that site, I don't mind punting the position from time to time. The completion percentage (58%) is garbage, but there are still weapons here. He does take off and run as well. Again, this is more about the matchup than the actual player.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara FD 8400 DK 7500
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 19.95 DK - 22.29
Through two weeks, Alvin Kamara is the leader in DraftKings scoring (69), and it isn't even close. He's nearly a full decent RB game above the next-closest guy (Saquon Barkley) and has been one of the true surprises of the season so far. The fact that he's doing it mostly on the ground (5.7 YPC, four touchdowns) is even that much more surprising.
He's getting elite usage in a Saints offense that's been about as good as possible through the first two weeks. Easy to ride the hot hand here.
Jordan Mason FD 8300 DK 6200
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 18.65 DK - 20.05
Christian McCaffrey is on injured reserve, and Jordan Mason will continue to see the majority of running back touches in this offense. He doesn't have the same pass game role as CMC, but through the first two weeks, this dude has carried the ball a whopping 48 times and played nearly every offensive snap.
Plus, the 49ers are now without Deebo Samuel, meaning the offense should get even more concentrated. Going double expensive at running back never feels amazing, but in this case, we probably have to do it.
Zach Charbonnet FD 6700 DK 6000
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 15.38 DK - 17.12
Speaking of bell-cow running backs, that is what Zach Charbonnet got going in Week 2 with Kenneth Walker out because of injury. Charbonnet played on 96% of the snaps, touching the ball 19 times (14 carries, five targets) before it was all said and done. It only translated to 69 total yards, but he did find the endzone.
With Walker still seeming closer to doubtful, Charbonnet appears a clear cash game play at these prices, especially on FanDuel.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk FD 6500 DK 6200
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 14.9 DK - 17.77
With Deebo Samuel now out because of injury and CMC already on the shelf, the 49ers offense is really banged up. But there's the opportunity now, and we could see a target spike for Brandon Aiyuk. It's been an uninspiring start for Aiyuk who went through a tumultuous offseason full of trade rumors and demands.
But he's locked in to a major role and one has to think Shanahan and company will scheme more his way with Deebo out of the mix.
Devonta Smith FD 8000 DK 6900
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 16.61 DK - 20.37
This is a week we can target wide receivers on teams who are missing their top option. Like Brandon Aiyuk without Deebo Samuel, Devonta Smith is going into another week with A.J. Brown out of the mix. On Monday against the Falcons, in a similar spot, Smith saw 10 targets, good for a 30% target share from Jalen Hurts. He finished with a 7/76/1 line .
This could be a high-scoring game would work even better if the Eagles were playing from behind.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba FD 6100 DK 5400
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 12.04 DK - 15.31
Man, talk about a spike week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went absolutely nuclear in Week 2 and started fulfilling some of the promise some fantasy drafters had when taking him over slot this summer. JSN saw a wild 16 targets (12/117) with he and D.K. Metcalf combined for 30 of Geno Smith's 44 passing attempts.
That's 68% of the team's target share. JSN is still underpriced on both sites if he's going to see WR1-type usage and should be strongly considered in cash games.
Tight End
Brock Bowers FD 6300 DK 5400
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 11.46 DK - 14.42
We gave you Brock Bowers as a cash play last week, and he didn't disappoint. He caught all nine of his targets for a 9/98 line and kind of already looked like the best tight end in all of football. The price is up a bit here, but maybe not enough if it's just going to be him and DaVante Adams as the two main threats in the Las Vegas receiving corps.
George Kittle FD 7100 DK 5700
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 13.3 DK - 16.1
Conventional wisdom says George Kittle should have an expanded role in the 49ers passing attack this week with Deebo Samuel out. That hasn't always come to fruition in similar spots, but we can probably take the risk. Kittle did see eight targets in Week 2, an encouraging sign, to say the least, and gets to play a garbage Rams defense.
Dallas Goedert FD 5800 DK 4600
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 10.4 DK - 13.14
While tight end has been something of a wasteland to start the season, there are bits of value we can get from the position on this slate. Dallas Goedert is, theoretically, still in a good spot with A.J. Brown on the injured list and unlikely to play. He played 97% of the offensive snaps on Monday night and managed four targets in Jalen Hurts' 30 passing attempts. Not an overwhelming number, but this is what we are dealing with at the position.
