Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks - Tuesday, November 28, 2023

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Point Guard/ Shooting Guard

De'Aaron Fox FD - $10000 DK - $9800
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 51.46 DK - 54.83

We are rolling through the In-Season Tournament tonight and there are games with real stakes which is saying something for the end of November in the NBA. One of them is the Kings and Warriors which has the highest over/ under of the evening at 237.5. De'Aaron Fox has been ridiculous this season and is coming off of a 36-point, 12-assist game against the Timberwolves over the weekend.

He’s averaging 29.9 points a game overall with a marked uptick in usage. He’s facing the Warriors who have a league-average defensive efficiency and this game could be back-and-forth. From a floor standpoint, Fox has one of the highest on the slate.

Jalen Brunson FD - $8200 DK - $8200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.94 DK - 45.71

The Knicks are controlling their own fate in the In-Season Tournament which puts them in an excellent spot for Tuesday’s action. They also happen to get one of the better matchups out there against the Hornets. Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball which could slow down the pace some.

But the Knicks are -11.5 home favorites against the 27th-ranked defense. Brunson has one of the higher minutes floors around and has been excellent on the shooting front this season, bombing 47% from beyond the arc. The price on both sites has him firmly in the cash game range and I expect to see him with a lot of ownership on this slate.

Anthony Edwards FD - $9300 DK - $8900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.8 DK - 51.45

There are a lot of good point guard and shooting guard options on this slate which could make for some tougher decisions when it’s all said and done. Anthony Edwards is in a great spot here with a high total game against the Thunder and the Timberwolves still playing for a shot to advance in the tournament. Edwards has a minutes number that can push up to 40 in the right circumstances and has taken yet another leap this season, putting in 26.6 points per game on more than 20 shots.

Terry Rozier FD - $7900 DK - $7400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.13 DK - 38.23

With LaMelo Ball out for at least the short-term, there is going to be some opportunity to go around on the Hornets on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest uptick should come from Terry Rozier who will (likely) take over the point guard duties. Rozier sees his usage go from 25% to 29% with Ball off the court, and the assist rate climbs about 8% as well. He doesn’t get a good matchup with the Knicks here, but the price on DraftKings softens that some.

Small Forward

Miles Bridges FD - $8000 DK - $8000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36.86 DK - 39.5

I’m definitely concerned with a blowout going down here because of the spread (-11.5), the motivations, and the fact that Charlotte is without their best player. But not having LaMelo there does just give a ton of shots and on-ball time to others and that’s worth a fair amount. Bridges has taken 17 and 18 shots respectively over the last couple of games and is averaging 21 points and nine rebounds since his return to action. The price is climbing on the playing time, but without Ball there is still some value here.

Khris Middleton FD - $5700 DK - $6100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 30.52 DK - 33.85

I fully understand that Khris Middleton is very risky for a couple of different reasons. The Bucks are clearly being very careful with him this season, managing the minutes and the playing time to a big degree. And he is coming off a DNP plus a 12-minute game before that.

But it did seem like the minutes were trending in the right direction before that and the price remains way down because of the playing time shenanigans. The Bucks control their own fate in the In-Season Tournament against Miami here and they could let Middleton run up to 30 minutes which would be enough at his current prices.

If Nic Claxton sits again then Royce O'Neale (FD 4800 DK 5500) and Dorian Finney-Smith (FD 4600 DK 5000) could make for higher-minute plays.

 

Power Forward/ Center

Alperen Sengün FD - $8400 DK - $8500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 46.27 DK - 49.47

We got this far without mentioning any Rockets, which could be a mistake considering who they are facing. Dallas is ranked 24th in defensive efficiency while running the 7th-fastest pace. It leaves the Rockets with a good matchup and Sengun primed for a huge game if it stays close. He’s coming off of a 21-point, 15-rebound game against the Nuggets. And on the season he’s putting up career numbers with 20.2 points a game to go with 9.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists. His FanDuel price is simply too low for the ceiling and floor here and I suspect he sees heavier ownership on this slate.

Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $8500 DK - $8600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 44.54 DK - 48.09

Karl-Anthony Towns is coming too cheap on FanDuel at a position that is sometimes hard to fill. KAT is having his most efficient season yet, which is really something, and his 50/40/91 splits are basically as good as you will ever see from anyone and especially amazing for a big man like him. I like the matchup here in a game with a higher total and think his floor (between the scoring and rebounding) means he’s unlikely to buzz you off too badly.

Mitchell Robinson FD - $5900 DK - $5200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 30.04 DK - 29.68

Mitch Rob is a funny one because while he’s getting fantasy points this season, they aren’t coming in all of the usual ways. Namely, he needs to rebound and block his way to value because the dude just doesn’t take many shots in this Knicks offense. For instance, he took two last game and four the game before. But he has double-digit boards in three of the last four games with six blocks in that stretch.