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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 11/14
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Guards
Stephen Curry FD - $10600 DK - $10200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 50.9 DK - 56.21
Starting right at the top tonight and, to be honest, this feels like a bit of a buy-low. I say this as he has provided a more consistent floor and arguably higher PTS/$ upside than some of his peers who are routinely $11K on both sites. He gets elite usage(32%) and is averaging 33.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 6.8 rebounds which has provided us with at least 45 DK points in every game and he is also playing some of his best ball of the season averaging 59 fantasy points over his last seven games. The Spurs are slightly below average when looking at overall defensive efficiency but rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to guards so I will have a ton of exposure to Curry in all formats.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $10000 DK - $8900
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 48.11 DK - 49.72
Speaking of value, especially on DraftKings, we have SGA who is coming off a monster 60+ point performance but has seen price dip back below $9K and near a season-low. I really don't understand it for a guy who is averaging 31.1 points, 5.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and a massive3.6 blocks+steals per game. He has also provided us with 42 or more DK points in 10 of 12 games and 50 or more in seven of those. This game has the highest total on the slate and while the Thunder are big dogs here, they face a Celtics team that has struggled defensively ranking 24th in that metric this season. All things considered, SGA is my favorite PTS/$ pay-up on this slate.
Jevon Carter FD - $5400 DK - $6000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 36.53 DK - 38.39
Carter has started all season but it wasn't until recently he became fantasy relevant as both Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the last two games. Carter stepped up with a whopping 42 shots in those games, shooting 52% and also adding 18 assists and six rebounds. The usage will go down some tonight as Giannis is expected back but with Jrue confirmed out, Carter should get another start at the point and still sits with a nice mid-tier price tag and projection that has him exceeding value tonight. Fire him up in all formats.
Also consider: Killian Hayes(DET) who has stepped up in a big way dropping 33 fantasy points in both games with Cade Cunningham out
Small Forward
OG Anunoby FD - $8300 DK - $7400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 42.77 DK - 43.46
We have always looked the way of Scottie Barnes when Fred VanVleet is out but it has actually been OG who has benefited the most. With just FVV off the floor, OG has seen a 3.5% uptick in usage which has brought him up into elite fantasy points per minute range on both sites(1.18 on DK/1.22 on FD). The price is definitely on the rise, especially on FanDuel, but it's hard to argue with a guy who is averaging 39 fantasy points over his last nine games, playing mid to high 30's minutes with multiple injuries, and gets a plus matchup against the Pistons who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Fire up OG in all formats tonight.
Power Forward/Center
Jimmy Butler FD - $9200 DK - $9100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 44.04 DK - 45.81
The system has Butler very close to being priced out right now but I just can't ignore how good he has been lately on the back of very balanced contributions across the board. He hasn't been getting elite usage, by any means, with just an average of 14 shots a game over his last six but is averaging 22.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 3.0 blocks+steals which has translated to a near 50-point fantasy average, as well. The matchup is nothing to write home about in the lowest total game on the slate but the Suns have not been as good on the road and with Butler providing value across the board, I love the floor here for cash games and he would get another big boost should Tyler Herro sit out.
Draymond Green FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 31.24 DK - 32.54
There is rarely a day when the system doesn't love Draymond Green from a PTS/$ standpoint and today I absolutely agree. This game has a monster 232.5 total and I would no the surprised if it hit the over as both teams rank bottom five in defensive efficiency and top five in pace. Green rarely flashes GPP winning upside but has been a terrific play in cash games with his very balanced fantasy game hitting on multiple categories. He has been especially good in the short term averaging 6.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists for an average of over 30 fantasy points per game. We are going to want multiple pieces of this game and Draymond will be one of them for me, at least in cash games.
Thaddeus Young FD - $5100 DK - $3900
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.42 DK - 33.32
There is a ton of talent in the mid to top tier tonight and to get as much exposure as possible we are going to have to find some low-end value. Enter Thad Young, at least on DraftKings, who got his first start of the season on Saturday and while he didn't deliver a slate-breaking performance, he did shoot 60% from the field for 15 points and with the addition of five rebounds and three steals, he tallied 27.75 DK points which is over a 6x return at these prices. With Precious Achiuwa and Pascal Siakam out again, we are expecting Thad to start and if that is the case he will be one of our top pTS/$ values on the slate.
