DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 11/10

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Guards

Brandon Ingram FD - $8200 DK - $8700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.59 DK - 43.58

I will preface by saying that our system is all over Luka tonight and while I agree with the projection, his price makes it very hard to fit on a smaller four-game slate with a lack of value. At this time, I am looking at a more balanced build and it starts with Brandon Ingram who has been very consistent this season. Remove the game where he left early with an injury and he has played at least 31 minutes in all five games and has gotten a ton of usage averaging 19.4 shots per game in that time. The high floor comes with his contribution in almost every category as he is averaging 25.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.0 blocks+steals, and 44.7 DraftKings points per game. The Trail Blazers are 10th in defensive efficiency but have been leaky to guards ranking 26th in fantasy points against. I will have exposure in all formats.

Dennis Smith Jr. FD - $6600 DK - $6100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.34 DK - 30.24
De'Anthony Melton FD - $5600 DK - $6000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.3 DK - 34.34

I group these two together as they have very similar situations on Thursday. Both have teammates(Ball, Hayward, Harden) out of the lineup creating an opportunity for others to thrive in their absence. Both also have other teammates who likely get the biggest bump in usage(Rozier, Maxey) but come at a much higher cost so on this smaller slate I settle here.

Let's start with Dennis Smith who outside the game he got hurt early on, has provided a consistent floor for fantasy as a starter averaging 10.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 2.9 steals+blocks for an average just over 32 fantasy points across nine games. The Hornets are big dogs in this one but there should be another 12-18 shots for Smith and the Heat do struggle most against guards ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position.

For Melton, he has been getting starts with James Harden out and has seen mixed results. He dropped a huge 39-point fantasy game against the Knicks but was held to 24 fantasy points in a low-scoring loss to the Suns on Monday. I don't see the awful shooting continuing (24% in those two games) but do see the volume remaining for the time being so while the price has come up, I still like the floor for cash games and feel there is 6x+ upside against a fast-paced Hawks team.

Small Forward

Tobias Harris FD - $8000 DK - $7100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.28 DK - 36.35

I mentioned James Harden being out above and his absence creating some shots and fantasy opportunities for others on the 76ers squad. The player who has seen the biggest bump has been Harris who has taken 33 shots in the last two games shooting 48% from the field and making 6 out of 14 from behind the arc. His biggest asset for fantasy are his contributions in the secondary stats as he has added 17 rebounds and 10 assists in those two games giving him 42 or more fantasy points in each. The price has adjusted a little faster on FanDuel and while he is in play on both sites, DraftKings is where we get the most value with him on Thursday.

Herbert Jones FD - $5000 DK - $4800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 24.14 DK - 24.44

Jones started the season dealing with an injury that eventually led to him missing some time but he is back and providing some much-needed value on this smaller slate. Over the last three games, he is averaging 11 shots and has provided 16 or more points in each with a floor of 25 DraftKings points and a ceiling of 39(nearly 8x at this price). In a game with the highest total on the slate, I will take the value and run.

Power Forward/Center

Jimmy Butler FD - $9000 DK - $9100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 47.22 DK - 49.17
Max Strus FD - $4900 DK - $5600
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.07 DK - 31.15

The theme of this article has most definitely been opportunities created by injuries and we have another situation in Miami. Tyler Herro missed the team's last game and is questionable again tonight along with Caleb Martin. Jimmy Butler returned from injury himself recently and while the shooting was down(5 for 14) he added seven assists, four rebounds, and six steals to post 42 fantasy points. The contributions in multiple categories give him a safe floor and when the shooting is on, he has massive upside, as well. Butler is in play regardless of the other injuries but for Strus, the Herro and Martin news is critical. If one or both are out, Strus would likely step back into the starting lineup and while the returns have not been consistent, he has flashed 6-7x upside on multiple occasions when given the added opportunities.

Bam Adebayo FD - $7700 DK - $7900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.07 DK - 43

I am going to continue to pick on the struggling Hornets here but that's not the only reason. Center is tough tonight as Embiid has reached a season-high salary yet has only topped 50 points three times in seven games making it tough to pay that kind of salary. That is why I land on Bam here and it comes down to consistency which he has found recently averaging 20.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.7 blocks+steals over his last six games for an average return of over 40 fantasy points. He also faces a Hornets defence that ranks 24th in fantasy points to centers so with a price below $8K on both sites, Bam is in play in all formats.

Also consider: Drew Eubanks(POR) as a top PTS/$ value if one or both of Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic are out again tonight

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