Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday, 6/5/22
I'm having one of my best weeks of the season, and the hitting landscape is finally turning around. The weather is warming up, and it's led to some of the highest-scoring games of the season. With that said, we've had some low-scoring games in Colorado this weekend, and that sort of volatility is why we love baseball! We'll surely have some exposure to the Coors Field game here, but let's get started with a couple of arms!
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Pitchers
Zac Gallen FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9800
Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - PIT
FD - 37.15 DK - 19.46
Gallen has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season, but he's been pitching like this throughout his career. The right-hander has a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP since his call-up but is amid the best season of his career. Gallen has a 2.32 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 rate so far this year. He's actually allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts, which should be easy to duplicate here. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 29th in OBP, 23rd in wOBA, 26th in K rate, and 28th in OPS. All of that has Gallen entering this matchup as a -150 favorite, with Pittsburgh projected for just 3,5 runs!
Luis Castillo FD - P 8400 DK - SP 7900
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - CIN
FD - 35.65 DK - 18.73
It's strange to see Castillo this cheap. This guy has flashed All-Star potential at times throughout his career, and he showed that in his most recent start. The right-hander allowed just one hit across six scoreless innings in Fenway Park, striking out 10 batters in that masterclass performance. We've seen him pitch like that in the past, and it looks like he's finally fully healthy. Getting to face Washington is the icing on the cake, though, with the Nationals ranked 20th in runs scored, 25th in xwOBACON, and 19th in OPS. He also enters this matchup as a -180 favorite, and that will be easy to understand later on in the article!
Kevin Gausman (FD $10100 DK $10200) is one of the frontrunners for AL Cy Young and should keep rolling against a righty-heavy Twins lineup.
Catcher/First Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 4500
Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - TOR
FD - 13.46 DK - 10.13
Guerrero finished second in AL MVP voting last season, and he's one of the best bats in baseball. Vlad's son has a .298 AVG, .388 OBP, .570 SLG, and .958 OPS since the start of last season. He got off to a slow start this year, but his OPS is above 1.000 over his last 10 games. We love that since he has the platoon advantage against a lefty, and we expect Smeltzer to see some negative regression here. The Twins southpaw has an inflated 1.50 ERA this season but a 4.49 xFIP. That means negative regression is right around the corner, and a matchup with this righty-heavy Toronto lineup could be the start of it.
Matt Olson FD - 1B 4100 DK - 1B 4600
Opponent - COL (Ryan Feltner) Park - COL
FD - 16.12 DK - 12
It's been a "down" year for the 2021 All-Star, but it's just a matter of time before Olson starts playing home run derby. This guy is one of the best power hitters around, amassing a .254 ISO and .506 SLG for his career. His numbers against righties are even more impressive, registering a .360 OBP, .523 SLG, .884 OPS, and .265 ISO against them throughout his career. All of that is hard to overlook in Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Facing a guy like Feltner is fantastic, too, with the righty posting a 5.79 ERA and 1.41 WHIP since his call-up last season.
If you need a catcher on DraftKings, Alejandro Kirk (FD $2600 DK $4200) has a 1.200 OPS since the end of last week.
Second Base
Brandon Drury FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B/3B 5000
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - CIN
FD - 8.78 DK - 6.77
Not many people outside of Cincinnati might know much about Drury, but this guy has quietly had a sensational season in Cincy. The utility man has a .465 SLG and .773 OPS since the start of last season, doing most of that damage against lefties. In fact, BD has provided a .577 SLG and .879 OPS against southpaws since the beginning of last year. That's all you can ask for from a player in this price range, and getting to face a guy like Patrick Corbin is a treat. The Nationals lefty has a 6.96 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season and has been pitching at that level for a few years now. That surely won't go over well in a place like Great American Smallpark.
Ketel Marte FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - PIT
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.01
It's easy to forget about Arizona players because of how poor that team is, but Marte has been playing steady baseball for most of his career. The second baseman has a .310 AVG, .369 OBP, .526 SLG and .894 OPS since 2019. That's a large sample size of dominance, and it makes him about $500 too cheap on both sites. We adore all of that with his recent form, compiling a .358 AVG, .426 OBP, .587 SLG, and 1.013 OPS over his last 31 games. That phenomenal form should continue against a guy like Thompson, with the Pirates pitcher posting a 5.18 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this year.
Shortstop
Trea Turner FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - NYM (Trevor Williams) Park - LAD
FD - 14.89 DK - 11.47
Turner was the consensus top pick in season-long fantasy this season, and he's showing why. The perennial All-Star enters this matchup, getting a hit in 25 of his last 26 games, totaling a .340 AVG, .563 SLG, and .958 OPS in that span. Those power numbers would be enough, but it doesn't even consider that he has six steals as well. Hitting third in the best lineup in baseball makes him one of the safest bets to provide runs, steals, and RBI, and this offense should thrive against a guy like Trevor Williams. The Mets righty has a 5.21 ERA and 1.47 WHIP since 2018.
Bo Bichette FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 5100
Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - TOR
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.45
Bo was also a consensus Top-10 pick in season-long leagues, and his price has dropped a bit too far. An early-season slump lowered his salary to these numbers, but this is still one of the best all-around hitters in the game. Bo has collected 147 runs, 44 doubles, 36 homers, 128 RBI, and 29 steals since the start of last year. Not many players are stuffing the box score like that, and we love it since Bo has a .301 AVG, .603 SLG, and .949 OPS over his last 17 games. He's also one of these Blue Jays bats that get to hit from the right side, with Bichette blasting southpaws to the tune of a .385 OBP and .907 OPS since his call-up.
Third Base
José Ramírez FD - 3B 4500 DK - 3B 6000
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - BAL
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.41
Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez could be in this article every single day. These two have one of the best power-speed combos you'll ever see, with Jose averaging 26 homers and 20 steals over the last six seasons. That includes some injury-shortened years, with Ramirez regularly leading baseball in fantasy points per game in that span. He comes into this matchup raking, too, accumulating a 1.377 OPS over his last 13 games. He's also got four steals in that stretch, and we don't anticipate this TBD from Baltimore to slow him down.
Josh Rojas FD - 3B 3300 DK - 3B 4200
Opponent - PIT (Zach Thompson) Park - PIT
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.52
The Diamondbacks are one of the sneakiest stacks of the day. While they do have one of the worst offenses in baseball, Marte and Rojas have been amazing atop this lineup. Rojas has been batting first or second for a month now, and it's easy to understand why. The switch-hitter has a .303 AVG and .850 OPS for the year. He's been even better as of late, accruing a .326 AVG, .388 OBP, .605 SLG, and .992 OPS over his last 12 games played. This guy has been crushing right-handers all year, amassing a .407 OBP, .542 SLG, and .948 OPS from the left side of the plate.
Outfield
Mookie Betts FD - OF 4400 DK - OF 6000
Opponent - NYM (Trevor Williams) Park - LAD
FD - 15.15 DK - 11.4
Fading Mookie is dumb. This guy is expensive, but he's been the best player in fantasy for a month now. The former MVP has maintained a .360 AVG, .417 OBP, .750 SLG, and 1.167 OPS over his last 33 games played. That's hard to overlook because this guy leads off for the best lineup in baseball, and we already discussed what a good matchup Williams is. That has the Dodgers projected for five runs in this brilliant spot, and Betts will be the table-setter once again.
Tommy Pham FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - CIN
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.36
Pham's price is higher than I expected, but the DFS sites see what I'm seeing. That's the fact that Pham is scorching hot right now and gets to face one of the worst lefties in baseball. We already talked about how Corbin has one of the worst ERA and WHIPs in the game, but we haven't dived into Pham's numbers. The Hawaiian has a .304 AVG, .367 OBP, .609 SLG, and .975 OPS over his last 10 games played. That's no surprise when you look at Tommy's advanced numbers, posting an elite hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, and exit velocity. The BvP numbers are the sprinkles on the donut, with Tommy tallying a .615 OBP and 1.171 OPS in 13 at-bats against the lackluster lefty.
Teoscar Hernández FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - MIN (Devin Smeltzer) Park - TOR
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.85
Hernandez has gotten off to a horrible start this season, but he'd be the best way to save salary in this Blue Jays stack. The righty masher had some superstar seasons between 2020-21, finishing with a .296 AVG, .538 SLG, and .888 OPS in that span. He also had 48 homers, and 18 steals in those 193 games, and it's clear he's one of the best players in fantasy. All of that makes this pricing difficult to understand, especially since Teoscar has a .500 AVG, .560 OBP, .909 SLG, and 1.469 OPS over his last six games. He also has a 1.073 OPS against lefties over the last three years, which makes him my favorite value play of the day!