DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 5/3/22

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Point Guard / Shooting Guard

Jrue Holiday FD - $8400 DK - $8300
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 46.27 DK - 46.88

The Bucks handled the Celtics with relative ease in the first game of the series, winning by 11 and not having to break all that big of a sweat. Holiday took the second-most shots on the team with 20 and finished with 25 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and three steals. It was a complete line and he easily paid these prices. I think he should be in store for that kind of production throughout the series and, if anything, the minutes could tick up as things move along. He should continue to be a popular play as long as Middleton is out of the lineup.

Marcus Smart FD - $6300 DK - $6200
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.37 DK - 30.47

Smart only played 32 minutes in the first game, but much of that was due to heading to the locker room in the first half which, at the time, looked to be a pretty bad shoulder injury. But he returned and played through it, finishing with 10 points and six assists. He struggled some from the field, going 3-11 though the same can be said of pretty much every Celtic. I think the price is fine considering in a normal game he’s going to push towards 40 minutes. He picks up enough stats along the way to justify it. 

Dillon Brooks FD - $5000 DK - $5500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 32.08 DK - 34.07

Desmond Bane FD - $6400 DK - $6700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.59 DK - 43.72

Both of these guys were bad in Game 1 though there is at least some context around that. Brooks was in foul trouble and had his minutes shaved because of it. And Bane struggled from the field with his shooting, going just 3-10. These two things combined with Jaren Jackson Jr. not getting into foul trouble and taking full run and usage off the table. I don’t think all of those things can combine once again. And also, Ja Morant took a whopping 31 shots, something that you would think the Warriors work overtime to limit this time around.

All of this combines to have me thinking both these dudes are in play from a value perspective on this slate. It’s a bit risky because of the price points, but I do think Brooks, even with his troubles is still coming too cheap on both sites. It’s a little closer with Bane.

If he starts again then Gary Payton II (FD 4200 DK 3500) is still kind of a bargain on both sites.

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11200 DK - $11400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 67.1 DK - 68.89

He’s a tough fade on almost every slate and the last first game in this series showed why. In his 38 minutes, Giannis went for 24 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists, going 9-25 from the field and 6-11 from the line. The Celtics had an impossible time with him when he started rolling downhill to the basket, and even though Boston is big Giannis can just be too much at times. Sure, the price is all the way up there, but no other player on the slate (or really the league) has the kind of fantasy floor Giannis brings into every game.

Jaylen Brown FD - $7800 DK - $7700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 44.53 DK - 48.54

He was dreadful in Game 1 against the Bucks and will need to improve if the Celtics have any chance in this series. Brown shot just 3-13 from the field and finished with only 12 points while committing seven turnovers. Again, it was bad. But I do think some of that is an outlier considering his overall performance this season. He still added nine rebounds, four assists, and two steals in his 37 minutes. Just some improvement on the shooting and being a bit more careful with the ball would have his line easily in lockstep with these prices.

Power Forward/ Center

Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $7000 DK - $6100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.76 DK - 35.47

Brandon Clarke FD - $6100 DK - $6000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.95 DK - 32.42

To say this combination is working for the Grizzlies is a complete understatement. Since Steven Adams was effectively moved out of the rotation in the first round against Minnesota, Clarke’s run increased almost immediately. And when JJJ and Clarke share the court, the numbers are overwhelming. In their 101 playoff minutes together Memphis has a 124.6 offensive rating and 98.15 defensive rating. That’s just incredible and we should continue to see them paired as much as possible.

Jackson had one of the best games of his career in the first one, going for 33 points and 10 rebounds. He’s not going to go 6-9 from three again, but the key was for the second game in a row he stayed out of foul trouble. That’s really the key for him these days and the DraftKings price makes him a pretty easy play.

Meanwhile, Clarke came off the bench again, but played 31 minutes and was once again closing for this group. He had 12 points and nine assists, a lower line all things considered. The price has come up for him through the playoffs, as it should have considering how good he’s been. But I still think we are getting value here.

Al Horford FD - $5600 DK - $5800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 36.18 DK - 38.15

The Celtics played Horford a lot of minutes in Game 1 in an effort to effectively speed bump Giannis. It didn’t totally work but one would have to think they’ll continue with this moving forward. Horford has been ok in this matchup in the past and he finished with 36 minutes total in the first tilt. That kind of run let him finish with 12 points and 10 rebounds while adding in some other stats as well. The key here for Horford at these minutes is just being able to stay on the court for long stretches. If it’s the case agains then he’s a pretty easy value play on this two-game slate.

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