DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 4/29/22 - Main Slate

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Pitchers

Nestor Cortes FD - P 10000 DK - RP 10000
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 36.41 DK - 19.62

Nestor Cortes is a $10K pitcher just a month or so into the season just like we all thought, right? Well, he deserves every bit of this pricing bump considering how lights-out he’s been to start the season. He has a ridiculous 45% K rate through his first 15.2 innings on the season and has 25 K’s to 3 BBs. It’s just be so sick from the 27-year-old who showed flashed of this last season. The K rate isn’t likely to sustain at this level, but it really doesn’t need to for him to maintain this price point. He’s a -200 road favorite against the Royals and could be a popular arm on the slate.

Frankie Montas FD - P 10200 DK - SP 8100
Opponent - CLE (Aaron Civale) Park - OAK
FD - 41.92 DK - 22.79

Montas has gone six or more innings in each of his last three starts and is able to do so by combining swing-and-miss stuff with excellent control. He has a 5:1 K:BB ratio and comes as a -127 home favorite in this matchup. But the Indians have one of the lowest implied run lines on the slate seeing as how the over/under on this game is sitting at an even 7. Montas is a great price on DraftKings where he’s likely to one of the highest owned players on Friday.

Catcher/First Base

Joey Votto FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 2800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.16

The Reds have been horrible to start the season with a 3-15 record and the worst team wOBA in the league, kind of by a lot. It’s been a rough road. And now we are left in an interesting spot. Because some of their prices are way down as they head into Coors Field for the weekend. Votto is hitting in the middle of the order and coming sub-$3K on both sites. Yes, he’s been worse than bad to start the season but I think we need to take the risk on the park and an early sample size driving things down.

C.J. Cron FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - CIN (Hunter Greene) Park - CIN
FD - 14.18 DK - 10.66

Cron is a lot more expensive than Votto here, but he’s been a lot better, so it makes sense. He has seven home runs already this season, one of the top marks in the majors, and it’s helped carry the OPS into the mid-900s through his first 80 plate appearances. Five have come at home where he has a .502 wOBA early on in the season.

Second Base

Jonathan India FD 3400 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 1.51 DK - 1.14

Like Votto, he’s coming entirely too cheap for Coors even though it’s been a dreadful start. The dude is coming off of a 21 home run, 12 stolen base season that saw him walk 11% of the time and sport a low 800s OPS along the way. It was a bit of a breakout in that he hadn’t flashed this kind of thing in the minors at all, so we should maybe be suspect a bit on the performance, but he’s still slated to hit leadoff in Coors while sitting in the middle tier of pricing. I think that qualifies him as a play.

DJ LeMahieu FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - KC
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.88

If India is in the leadoff spot on Friday, then he is the clear play here. But if you want to pivot, I don’t mind going to LeMahieu who will also be hitting in the top spot and has much better bats behind him in the order. He looks like he’s getting things back on track to start this year and for his career has been significantly better against lefties. His .836 OPS is about 80 points higher in that split. The price won’t break the bank either.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD - SS 3900 DK - SS 5300
Opponent - DET (Tyler Alexander) Park - LAD
FD - 15.12 DK - 11.65

It’s odd to think that since we are getting Turner has a hit in 15 of his 17 games this season though he hasn’t put together a monster line yet mostly because he has only one home run so far. He’s striking out a bit more than his career average this time around and I suppose there’s at least some concern that he doesn’t put up the power numbers he did last season. But this dude has tagged lefty pitching for his career with an .884 OPS and 133 wRC+. The Dodgers are a good stack against the lefty Alexander.

Corey Seager FD 2700 DK 4800
Opponent - ATL (Ian Anderson) Park - ATL
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.33

I prefer Trea Turner by a wide margin, but there’s a case to be made for Seager here, especially on FanDuel where he’s coming much, much cheaper. Ian Anderson has struggled with control early on in this season, walking nine batters through 13 innings while striking out just 12. Seager hasn’t picked it up in a big way on his part, but the BABIP is more than 50 points lower than his career number and he’s a tough strikeout too.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD 2700 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Tyler Alexander) Park - DET
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.39

The 37-year-old looks like he’s on the decline with an OPS drop in each of the last four season and he’s struggled this year with that number at only a paltry .511 right now. Some of that is BABIP-related, but the hard contact rate is way down too. As long as he’s hitting third in this lineup though it’s tough to pass up on him at these prices, especially coming sub-3K on FanDuel. He walks more and has a higher ISO in his platoon against lefties and I’m buying on the idea that this is still just a bit of a slump and not him totally falling off a cliff.

Mike Moustakas FD 2700 DK 2100
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.41

Moustakas is just another one of the Reds’ bats who’s coming so, so cheap heading into Coors. He’s basically the minimum on DraftKings which is kind of nuts. Sure, he’s hitting lower in the lineup and has completely sucked, but it’s almost too good to pass up. Even posting his numbers on the season would make you want to take a shower so I’ll avoid that here, but in terms of park and price you really will have a tough time fading him here.

Outfield

Tyler Naquin FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 2900
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 12.98 DK - 9.92

Tommy Pham FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 2700
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 14.04 DK - 10.67

These two should hit two and three in the Reds lineup on Friday and like some of their other Cincy teammates, are just coming too cheap for a trip into Coors. Naquin is coming off of a solid .800+ season in 2021 that saw him smack 19 home runs. For his career he’s way better against righties, putting up an 801 OPS which is more than 150 points higher than what he does against lefties. Hitting 2nd in Denver at these prices with even a little bit of power is really too good to pass up.

Meanwhile, Pham is never getting back to the .900 OPS season he had in 2017, but he’s still able to contribute from a fantasy perspective if things break right. He had 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases last season and does take walks more than 13% of the time. This is the worse side of his platoon split, but he’s been above average against righties for his career. He should hit in the three spot and is way, way too cheap on DraftKings.

Connor Joe FD 3900 DK 5800
Opponent - CIN (Hunter Greene) Park - CIN
FD - 13.18 DK - 9.96

Charlie Blackmon FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - CIN (Hunter Greene) Park - CIN
FD - 13.07 DK - 10.01

Joe and Blackmon are projected to be the top two hitters in the Rockies’ lineup on Friday when facing the righty Hunter Greene. The latter puts guys down on strikes a lot, but struggles with control and has allowed a 50% flyball rate in his limited time in the majors. That second piece is a real problem for Coors Field of course where balls in the air turn into balls over the wall much more often than in other parks. Blackmon has picked the home run rate back up this season after struggling the last two while Joe is sporting an OPS in the mid-800s to start the season.

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