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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/25/22
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Pitchers
Max Scherzer FD - P 10800 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - STL (Miles Mikolas) Park - STL
FD - 42.82 DK - 24.13
Max has gone at least five innings in each of his three starts and seems to have shed the pitch count going seven innings against the Giants on 102 pitches while limiting them to one hit. Not only does he go deep into games giving him a better chance at the win/quality start(FD), but he also provides a ton of upside and comes in striking out 33.3% of batters he faces. In a time when it is very rare for pitchers to go much past the 5th inning or third time through the order, I love locking in the raw points with Max in all formats, especially on DraftKings in the mid $9K range.
Kyle Gibson FD - P 8400 DK - SP 6800
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - PHI
FD - 34.93 DK - 17.46
If you are not looking to spend around 40% of your salary cap on pitching on DraftKings, we do some decent value in Kyle Gibson as the Phillies are currently the biggest favorites(-193) on the slate. Gibson has also been consistent to start the season with quality starts in two of his three outings with a 27.5% K rate backed up by a slate-leading 16.3% swinging-strike rate. The matchup is average-at-best as the Rockies have been no pushover to start the season but Gibson at a sub $7K price, Gibson is easily my top SP2 if you want to stack a few top bats with a top pitcher.
Catcher/First Base
Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 5300
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - ARI
FD - 13.9 DK - 10.47
The first base position is loaded tonight and definitely a spot you are going to want to pay up. Now the question is who to build around and while I don't think you can really go wrong with Vlad or Freddie here, I lean toward the latter. First of all, he comes slightly cheaper on both which could come into play with wanting to pay up at pitcher but more than anything it's about current form as Freeman has been red-hot over the last week with hits in five of seven games while averaging 13.6 DK/17.9 FD points per game. Freeman is our top projected first baseman and a great play to build around in all formats.
Josh Naylor FD - 1B 2500 DK - 1B/OF 2500
Opponent - LAA (Michael Lorenzen) Park - LAA
FD - 8.65 DK - 6.63
It's no secret that Cleveland's offense is going to be a force in 2022 and is centered around early MVP candidate, Jose Ramirez. The problem with this smaller slate is that we are likely paying up at pitching which makes building around JRam very difficult. With every problem is a solution and the good news here is that he is surrounded by a top of the order that is both red-hot and comes at a value. Naylor is one of those values and one heck of a story as he is coming back from an ugly ankle injury last season and has looked great with six multi-hit efforts in his last seven games to start the season. Assuming he is back in the five-hole tonight, he is my top value in all formats.
Second Base
Jean Segura FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.53
Trevor Story FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR (José Berríos) Park - TOR
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.23
I group these two together as they are off to similar slow starts for their respective clubs but are in decent situations on Monday and both appear to be coming out of their early-season slumps. Let's start with Segura who has been moved up into the leadoff role for the Phillies and despite his .267/.327/.444 slash line, has reached base in 11 of 12 games with hits in 10 of them including two doubles and two home runs. He also has strong splits against lefties with a .377 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and .197 ISO since the start of last season.
For Story, it has been an extremely disappointing start to the season after signing a monster deal in free agency this past offseason. He is hitting just .234, drawn just three walks, and is still looking for his first home run. The good news here is that the price is trending down and is even at a season-low on DraftKings and Story comes in with hits in four straight games. I will have exposure to both leadoff hitters fairly equally in all formats tonight.
Third Base
Alex Bregman FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.49
While the Astros have somewhat of a new look from their World Series team with Correa and Springer gone, they still have a very dangerous core led by Alex Bregman. While the team has gotten off to a slow start in 2022, it hasn't fallen on Bregman's shoulders as he comes in hitting .294 with an elite .406 wOBA/176 wRC+ with three home runs and 12 RBI. That is where I scratch my head on why DraftKings has dropped his price to a season-low in a terrific matchup against Dane Dunning who has given up 17 hits and over 50% hard contact in his first three starts. Fire up Bregman in all formats.
Matt Chapman FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - BOS (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - BOS
FD - 9.54 DK - 7.09
Like Story, Matt Chapman is trying to find his place on a team in 2022 and while he got off to a slow start, things are starting to come together. Chapman comes into Monday with hits in seven of his last eight games with two doubles and a home run. he doesn't walk a lot as a free swinger so he is buried down the lineup some but comes at an excellent price considering he gets a ton of opportunities to drive in runs hitting behind a loaded Jays top-of-the-order. I won't be forcing him on FanDuel where the price remains high but on DraftKings, he is a core play for me at third base in all formats under $4K in a plus matchup.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR (José Berríos) Park - TOR
FD - 10.35 DK - 7.86
Jeremy Pena FD 2900 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.72
Like first base, the shortstop position is absolutely loaded tonight and I would not talk anyone off paying up for Trea Turner and especially Francisco Lindor but I can't ignore the mid-tier value. It starts with Xander Bogaerts who comes in scorching hot with hits in seven of his last nine games including five multi-hit efforts but somehow has reached a season-low price on DraftKings. The Red Sox also face Jose Berrios at the right time as he has given up a ton of contact(17 hits in 11 IP) and a ton of hard contact(55%). He is my top shortstop on DraftKings tonight.
Xander would be my top shortstop on FanDuel as well if not for rookie Jeremy Pena who has taken over the leadoff role for the Astros with Jose Altuve on the IL. While DraftKings has adjusted his price for the role, FanDuel still has him in the sub $3K range and with a top matchup and unlimited power behind him, he is my top PTS/$ at the position.
Outfield
Myles Straw FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 4000
Opponent - LAA (Michael Lorenzen) Park - LAA
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.39
Like I mentioned earlier, it is going to be tough to fit JRam in cash with so many top pitchers on this slate so let's get exposure through his teammates. Straw has set the table nicely from the leadoff spot this season with hits in 10 of his last 13 games and has nearly as many walks(9) as strikeouts(11) and has shown stronger splits against right-handed pitching. Coming off a tough game against Gerrit Cole, I expect Straw and the Guardians to get back on track Monday and I will have exposure in all formats.
Michael Brantley FD - OF 2600 DK - OF 3500
Opponent - TEX (Dane Dunning) Park - TEX
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.58
The Astros are off to a slow start but we are most definitely going to want some exposure with their plus matchup on this smaller slate. They face off against Dane Dunning who has been allowing a ton of runners to get on base(1.89 WHIP) and has given up over 50% hard contact through three starts. While almost every other bat is ice cold, veteran Michael Brantley continues to hack at a .300+ rate in terms of batting average and entered Sunday with hits in five of his last six games including three multi-hit efforts. Best of all, he remains a value on both sites and is in play in all formats.
