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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Playoffs Friday 4/22/22
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Point Guard / Shooting Guard
Jrue Holiday FD - $8000 DK - $8000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 43.97 DK - 44.49
With Khris Middleton now out indefinitely, and at least for the next two games, the Bucks are going to need all of the offensive production they can get from everyone else. The first stop should be Jrue Holiday who becomes close to a lock in cash games now and will likely play a ton of minutes over the next two at least. For the series, he’s averaging 15 points, six rebounds, and six assists for the series so far. And this is with him struggling from the field and also from three, meaning we could get some regression on the scoring. I suspect he is one of the more popular plays on the slate now considering the context around this Bucks team who will be without one of its best players.
Zach LaVine FD - $7200 DK - $7300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 44.07 DK - 46.49
We are going to be overweighted on this game for sure, but it makes sense considering the context of what’s going on here. The Bulls are now live in this series, against seemingly all odds, but no Khris Middleton for the Bucks could have that effect. Lavine played 43 minutes last game and scored just 20 points while handing out only three assists which could turn you off to this play. But if that’s going to be the run then these prices are a total joke and he’s one of the easiest plays on the slate. Sure, Demar DeRozan took over last game, but if Lavine is playing 40+ minutes then we are getting a crazy value.
Pat Connaughton FD - $4400 DK - $4000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.2 DK - 25.26
It looks like he will get the start in Game 2 with Khris Middleton out, though I suppose it could also be Grayson Allen. This is a situation we are going to want to monitor and should have the info we need well before lineup lock. With Middleton coming out early (ish) last game, Connaughton came in and played 23 minutes. He struggled from the field (1-6) and is always going to struggle to pile up fantasy stats because of who he shares the court with in Giannis. But at these prices, with the chance for more run because of the Middleton thing, he’s just the kind of punt play we need on this slate.
Landry Shamet FD - $3800 DK - $3800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 17.76 DK - 19.13
Devin Booker is going to miss time for the Suns which means there are going to be some value plays here. The sites priced up Chris Paul on that news so I don’t think we are getting much in the way of a bargain on him even with the usage increase. But if Shamet starts this game we would be looking at a punt play on the guard. He’s coming close to the minimum on both sites and would, of course, need to hit shots. But the Suns are shorthanded at the two now and he’s likely to be the next man up.
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12000 DK - $11200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 67.05 DK - 68.86
With the series knotted at a game a piece, a place the Bucks didn’t think they’d be, they will have to lean on Giannis even more than they already do. And from a fantasy perspective, the dude has of course been amazing. For the first two games he’s put up a whopping 30 points, 17 rebounds, and six assists per game. And we know the minutes are going to be there considering he ran 40 in Game 2. He’s simply too safe, even at these elevated prices, to fade in a cash game situation. We will be able to find some savings elsewhere. This isn’t the guy to fade at all. I suspect, like Jrue, he’s one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $9500 DK - $8600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 51.26 DK - 51.95
DeRozan was out of this world in Game 2, coming up time and time again with a big shot to secure the win for the Bulls. And they’ll have a chance to take another game in this series with Khris Middleton now on the shelf for Milwaukee over the next two. DDR has to play massive minutes for the Bulls to have a chance anyway so he rings in as a safe play. He’s coming off a monster game last time out that saw him take 31 shots (only 2 from three which is ridiculous) and scoring 41 points while adding seven rebounds, four assists, and some defensive stats as well. The price is kind of a joke on DraftKings though is a bit closer on FanDuel. I suspect he’s a very popular play on this slate considering the context around the last game and the weaknesses the Bucks have now.
Power Forward/ Center
Bam Adebayo FD - $7300 DK - $7000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 45.1 DK - 46.09
Bam got into major foul trouble which crushed his fantasy value almost from the get-go. He ended up playing only 24 minutes and had an underwhelming fantasy line. That only served to keep the price in place and I still think he’s a value going into this slate. The first two games have been completely out of whack in line with expectations for Bam who averaged 19 points and 10 rebounds this season. Foul trouble and blowouts have gotten in the way of the output to start and that’s meant us getting him at a bargain here.
John Collins FD - $5900 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 33.52 DK - 33.66
Collins got the start for Clint Capela in Game 2 and was pretty great, from a fantasy and points-per-minute perspective in his run. He finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds in his 29 minutes which bodes well for the value if that run is extended into the mid-30s. Of course, that means the Hawks actually keeping the game close against the Heat which has been a struggle in the first couple of games. On these short slates, you need to trust that it’s going to be the case, and I think that’s what we have with Collins.
Brook Lopez FD - $5700 DK - $5300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.7 DK - 34.07
The Bucks have felt fine running Lopez big minutes this series and that’s likely to continue throughout. With Vuce running the other way, there is more comfortable court time for Bro-Lo with the Bucks not needing to run Giannis as many minutes at the five. Last game, Lopez dropped 25 points and 5 rebounds in his 35 minutes on the court. The scoring is, for sure, a bit of an outlier but the minutes aren’t. I think at these prices we can keep him in play even if he’s never going to play close to the basket in this setup.
