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DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Saturday 3/5/22
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Point Guard/Shooting Guard
I've taken to just putting these two positions together because there is so much overlap at this point.
Dejounte Murray FD - $9600 DK - $10800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 50.38 DK - 50.14
On this slate, Murray likely has the highest floor of any player. He’s been magnificent this season, averaging 20.3 points, 9.4 assists, and 8.4 rebounds on the season. And this is just the right kind of matchup for Murray in what is definitely a pace-up game for the Spurs. Charlotte is running the league’s fastest pace on the season (102.9) and is playing a bottom-third defense which lands right at the intersection of where we want to find opponents in DFS. The FanDuel price is an especially easy landing spot, though it’s a bit close on DraftKings.
LaMelo Ball FD - $8000 DK - $8500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 41.67 DK - 45.25
Maybe we want to stack the point guards from this game considering it has the highest total (240.5) of the entire five-game slate, beating out the next closest by about seven points. LaMelo is coming off a dreadful game that saw him play only 8 minutes (8!) after getting in foul trouble early and mostly just looking terrible. I’m not going to take all that much away from the game considering the season-long track record, but it is at least a mild concern. I’m hoping that others look at it and are steered away here. The price on both sites is totally palatable and we know he has a solid floor considering how he racks up fantasy points.
D'Angelo Russell FD - $7800 DK - $7900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.43 DK - 46.61
Patrick Beverley FD - $4700 DK - $5100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.88 DK - 31.46
There are some injury issues we are going to need to have resolved before locking in lineups for this evening. But we should know most of it before 7PM EST. One of those pieces we need to know about is Anthony Edwards and his status. He sat out Friday and when that’s the case there is usage bumps almost across the board for the Timberwolves. Now, it didn’t play out perfectly for them (fantasy-wise) on Friday considering they blew the doors off the Thunder 138-101, but the central idea behind the plays make sense. Russell managed 17 points and seven assists in his 25 minutes and was well on his way to value before not even sniffing the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, there’s reason to be at least a little bearish on Beverley’s minutes considering the team really hasn’t wanted to push him to the limit even in close games. But if he plays around 30 minutes then I think he has a nice floor in this game. Portland ranks 28th on defense for the season and with their current personnel project to get even worse over the last part of the season. This one isn’t as clear-cut to me as it is with DLo and there is, once again, major blowout concern for the game with the Timberwolves coming in as -13.5 home favorites.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $10300 DK - $11200
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 52.45 DK - 56.24
I’m not sure how much or even what, the Lakers have left in the tank here. They look like dead men walking for sure and the last part of this season could get ugly for them. But they are still technically in the play-in tournament right now and this game is at home. Plus, the Warriors without Draymond Green have gotten worse on defense and the spread in this one would indicate that things stay relatively close. Lebron’s FanDuel price is palatable I think and the expectation here is that he will continue playing minutes in the upper-30s until the season is completely in the tank (if it gets there). I think we can roll him out in cash games and assume a pretty high floor.
CJ Elleby FD - $3900 DK - $4100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.76 DK - 26.79
This play is a risk of course because Elleby is well, CJ Elleby. But the Trailblazers are really short on rotation guys here with Josh Hart ruled out and the team already missing Justise Winslow. That could lead to more minutes from the rest of these scrubs and Elleby is coming pretty cheap on both sites. He played 35 minutes last game, though managed just 10 points and four rebounds in that time. That being said, on a per-minute basis he’s been able to rebound the position reasonably well all things considered and the price means he doesn’t have to do much here. If I’m paying up in some other key spots, it’s not the worst thing to try and save a bit of salary here.
Power Forward/ Center
Mo Bamba FD - $4600 DK - $5300
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 36.87 DK - 37.35
Chuma Okeke FD - $5700 DK - $5100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.96 DK - 30.1
Like I said before, there is a lot of injury news hanging out there early for this slate, most of which should be resolved prior to lineup lock. One of those situations is the status of Wendell Carter Jr. and these two plays are mostly predicated on WCJ sitting the game out. He missed Friday’s game, which could have been some back-to-back management for sure, and Okeke got the start. He played 30 minutes and was able to double-double with 10 points and 11 rebounds. He’d be in line for similar run here if running with the starters again.
And then there was Bamba who sure looked like a solid low-end cash game option when WCJ was ruled out. But he had all kinds of foul trouble which took away a ton of run. He ended up playing only 25 minutes, though did manage to finish with 14 points and five rebounds. I would run the risk of going back to him again if the circumstances were the same because I think we have enough of a sample size to think that he’s a value at these prices. Update: Wendell Carter has been ruled out.
Drew Eubanks FD - $3900 DK - $4600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.14 DK - 32.51
Eubanks started for the Trailblazers against the Suns on Wednesday which you love to see. What you don’t love are the 18 minutes he played in total. Now, that game got away from Portland which could have been part of the issue, but it’s at least a concern. That being said, he dropped 13 points and eight rebounds even in limited run, which is so encouraging. If this game stays closer and he’s able to go minutes even in the mid-20s, I think this is a pretty easy call especially because I think we end up spending more at the guard position on this slate.
