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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 1/23/21
Can we reflect on how crazy that few weeks were where everyone was in COVID protocols? That was one of the most difficult periods I've ever seen from a DFS perspective, but it gave us a good idea of what these rotations look like in certain circumstances. Finding out who will step up when some studs are out is a critical variable in this racket, and we feel like we learned a lot in that volatile time period. We have many recommendations today that are stepping in for injuries studs, so let's kick things off with two of those!
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Point Guard
Gabe Vincent FD - $5000 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.32 DK - 27.57
Vincent isn't going to go off too often, but he's way too good to be sitting around $5K on both sites. What's made him so valuable are the absences in Miami, with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro both sidelined. Those are the two primary point guards on this team, and it's left Gabe with a huge role. If you look at the last 12 games that Vincent has started at point guard, he's scored at least 20 DraftKings points in all of those. That's a great floor from a $5K player, but we absolutely adore his 29-point average across 34 minutes a night in that span. The best part of this might be this matchup, though, with Los Angeles third in pace and 27th in total defense.
Monte Morris FD - $4400 DK - $4800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 27.51 DK - 28.2
Monte can be annoying to the roster at times, but this price is silly. Morris is the starting point guard in Denver with Jamal Murray out, and he's traditionally been a $6,000 player in this role in the past. He certainly wasn't playing at that level through the first two months, but the last week has been really encouraging. In fact, MM averaging 30 fantasy points per game across 35 minutes a night over the last three games. A sample size that small is tough to trust, but it's becoming clear that Facundo Campazzo is a terrible backup, and Morris needs to take all the minutes he can handle. That becomes even more enticing in a matchup like this, with Detroit ranked 24th in defensive efficiency ratings. All you need is 25 fantasy points from Morris to be a great value, and that seems like his floor considering his recent form and uptick in his role.
Don't forget about Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson taking on bigger roles in the absence of Donovan Mitchell.
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan FD - $8400 DK - $8900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 44.72 DK - 47.17
Chicago's backcourt is falling apart before our eyes, and it's left DeRozan with the most expansive role of his career. The Bulls are currently playing without Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso, leaving DeRozan as the primary ball-handler on this team. With all of those guys off the floor, DD leads the team with a 36 percent usage rate, attempting nearly 25 shots per game. That role is impossible to overlook from any player, particularly a guy averaging a career-best 41 DraftKings points per game. The matchup with the Magic is the icing on the cake, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing SGs while ranked 26th in defensive efficiency.
Joe Ingles FD - $3700 DK - $4500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 24.43 DK - 26.31
Ingles has been terrible for most of the season, but this price is foolish. The Australian wing does a ton of ball-handling when Donovan Mitchell is out, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in a starting role last season. We haven't seen much of that this year, but it's hard to overlook an extended period like that from such a talented player. The price is the most tempting thing with Jingles, especially with Joe averaging 23 fantasy points per game in the last two outings without Mitchell. That might not jump off the page, but it's all you can ask for from such a cheap player.
C.J. McCollum is an excellent play, taking over Portland's offense in the absence of Damian Lillard.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler FD - $8800 DK - $8700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 52.03 DK - 51.04
Why is Jimmy Buckets below $9K? This dude was already outperforming his price tag before, and we have to believe his production will skyrocket with Lowry and Herro out of the lineup. With those two ball-handlers off the floor, Butler ranks second on the team with a 25 percent usage rate, averaging 1.3 DK points per minute in these circumstances. We love that since he's scored at least 33 fantasy points in all but three full games this season, generating a 42-point average for the year. All of that makes this pricing laughable, particularly with the Lakers having one of the worst defenses in the NBA. You know a spiteful guy like Butler will be extra motivated against a team like the Lakers too.
Anthony Edwards FD - $6800 DK - $7100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38 DK - 39.26
Edwards has been struggling recently, but this price is dropping way too much. We're still talking about a future All-Star who's averaging 39 fantasy points per game for the season. That's an unbelievable number from a $7K player, and we love that Edwards has flashed 50-point upside on numerous occasions this season. The matchup with Brooklyn isn't too bad either, with the Nets ranked 10th in pace and 18th in total defense. It's also the type of showcase game where ANT should step up, and it's a great time to buy in when his stock is at its lowest price of the season.
De'Andre Hunter is a cheap alternative if you want to save some salary.
Power Forward
Pascal Siakam FD - $9100 DK - $9200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 43.97 DK - 44.31
Siakam is a fantasy darling for people that follow the NBA, and the mainstream media needs to take notice of how special this dude is. He's actually been the Raptors primary ball-handler for the last three weeks, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in 20 straight games. That's an absurd stretch of consistency, with Siakam generating a 49-point average over his last 13 games played. The simple fact is, Toronto is keeping their rotation extremely thin, leading to Pascal playing 40 minutes a night in that span. Anyone playing 40 minutes, taking 20-plus shots, and handling the ball regularly needs to be considered on every slate. Playing Portland is brilliant, too, with the Blazers ranked 25th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency.
Robert Covington FD - $5700 DK - $5700
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 26.97
RoCo is one of my favorite players in the NBA because he provides value through more than just scoring. On the contrary, almost all of his value comes through defense and hustle statistics. The stingy defender has at least 22 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 13 games, providing a 31-point average in that span. That's a great total from a sub-$6K player, and it's scary to think how good his numbers could look if he knocked down a handful of threes like he's capable of. Toronto is a solid matchup, too, with the Raptors owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing PFs this season. He's also flirting with 35-40 minutes a night in that most recent stretch and that should continue with Lillard, Larry Nance Jr and Norman Powell all out.
Tyler Cook has been playing a much bigger role in Chicago and remains way too cheap.
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $11900 DK - $12200
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 61.87 DK - 63.94
Jokic could be in here every day, and it's easy to understand why. The big man leads the NBA with nearly 60 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in all but one game this season. Those are unimaginable totals, making The Joker worth the price no matter what the salary is. All of that is scary since he's in one of the best stretches of the season, entering this matchup with four straight triple-doubles while toying with an 80-point average over his last three outings. We obviously don't mind that he faces Detroit either, with the Pistons ranked 24th in total defense.
Mo Bamba FD - $5600 DK - $5400
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.23 DK - 31.99
Mo Bamba has turned into a fantasy beast this season, and he's got some pricing that we don't understand. This guy has been playing at a $7K level for most of the season, averaging 29.2 DK points per game. That's slightly below his projection because some of his numbers have been hampered by injuries and foul trouble. When this guy gets a full allotment of minutes, he's close to a 35-point player! He's shown that in the last two games, posting a 38-point average in those outings. Facing Chicago isn't too concerning either, with the Bulls ranked 17th in defensive efficiency.
Bam Adebayo remains below $8K on both sites, and it's hard to understand why in such a tasty matchup.
