DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/11/21 - Main slate

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Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - MIL
FD - 43.44 DK - 24.93

The Reds are a really good offense this season which makes this something of a more questionable play. But it’s tough to look at Woodruff’s numbers and not just basically run him sight unseen. He’s striking out 10.5 batters per nine and he limits the walks as well. His 2.91 xFIP is among the best of the league and he’s running even better on the ERA. He’s been among the best WAR pitchers in the league this season and even with a bad matchup, he makes for the best cash game arm on the slate.

José Berríos FD - P 9900 DK - SP 8000
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - MIN
FD - 35.4 DK - 19.47

The Tigers rank in the bottom third of the league in team offense with a .304 wOBA. And they strike out more than 27% of the time as well, giving Berrios big-time K upside in this matchup. Berrios is having one of the best seasons of his career with a 3.52 xFIP that would be his best number over the last six seasons. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning and been able to get the walks back to what he was doing in 2019. He’s a -215 home favorite which gives him the best win probability on the slate.

Catcher/First Base

José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 5900
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 14.73 DK - 11.14

For the second day in a row, you are going to see a bunch of White Sox bats in this writeup. That’s what happens when you get a team facing a middling arm who doesn’t project to strike anyone out. That’s the case with Spenser Watkins who has a low ERA in his first few innings but hasn’t had swing and miss stuff at almost any level. Abreu’s power numbers and OPS are down this season, but that’s somewhat keeping the price in check and he’s got such a good matchup here.

Trey Mancini FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - BAL
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.79

Mancini hit second in the order for the Orioles on Saturday and could be back there again on Sunday. After sitting out the 2020 season, Mancini has returned this year and has been solid with 15 home runs and an OPS approaching .800. He’s tough to strike out and will take a walk or two as well.

Second Base

Luis Arraez FD - 2B 2500 DK - 2B/3B 3100
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - MIN
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.72

Arraez is sticking in the leadoff spot for the Twins thanks to his elite contact rate. He’s putting the ball in play around 80% of the time this season helping him to a .361 OBP even though the walk rate is on the lower side. He’s not a fantasy dynamo with very little in the way of speed or power (understatement) but coming cheap on both sites and hitting leadoff against a garbage arm in Peralta makes him a cash game consideration.

I like Arraez far and away more than anyone else at the position on this slate. But Ian Happ (FD $2500 DK $3300)
would be an okay cheap option even if he was hitting in the lower third of the Cubs’ lineup.

Shortstop

Tim Anderson FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 6000
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 14.33 DK - 11.14

Anderson doesn’t take a lot of walks for a leadoff hitter, but he makes up for it with a solid contact rate and great speed when he gets on the base paths. He has 14 stolen bases this season and has been able to add six home runs as well. The power is definitely down this season compared to the last couple which is of some concern and it’s mostly because the groundball right is much higher for him this time around compared to previous seasons. That’s a number that tends to regress pretty quickly so we might not be looking at the same deep threat possibilities. But he’s still a good play hitting at the top of the order against Watkins.

Didi Gregorius FD - SS 2700 DK - SS 3900
Opponent - BOS (Nick Pivetta) Park - BOS
FD - 10.46 DK - 7.95

Didi has had a rough season for sure, one of the many Yankees underperforming expectation. But I do think at least part of it is bad luck with the BABIP about 30 points lower than his career average. But some of that is because the hard contact rate is down as well. That being said, this matchup against Pivetta is fine considering the latter walks a ton of guys and is a below average arm all things considered. Didi is cheap on both sites for a reason, but is a moderate value here.

Third Base

Yoán Moncada FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B 5600
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 14.05 DK - 10.63

We mentioned this yesterday, but Moncada is among the most patient hitters in the game, walking more than he’s striking out on the season. In the current version of baseball, this is an incredibly difficult feat considering the advantage pitchers have in the modern game. The issue with Moncada is the power hasn’t been able to replicate what he did in 2019 and it might that we see that season as an aberration when it’s all said and done. But he’s part of this top-of-the-order White Sox stack against Watkins.

Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4900
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - MIN
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.57

Donaldson sat out Saturday’s game but should be back in the lineup again on Sunday. He’s taking a lot of walks this season and has shown the traditional power with 13 home runs in his first 267 plate appearances. The OPS could be higher, but his BABIP is also about 40 points lower than his career averages. Against Peralta, he’s a clear play if he’s hitting second in the order.

Outfield

Brian Goodwin FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.36

We wrote up Goodwin yesterday and he paid off with a home run on Saturday. Let’s hope the good times keep rolling in this matchup against the righty Watkins. With Grandal and Mercedes out of the lineup for the White Sox, Goodwin has moved up to the cleanup spot in the order. That’s such an advantageous place considering the prices haven’t caught up with the opportunity.

Trevor Larnach FD - OF 2600 DK - OF 3300
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - MIN
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.86

Alex Kirilloff FD - OF 2800 DK - 1B/OF 3400
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - MIN
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.29

The Twins seem content keeping Larnach in the middle of their order and if that’s going to be the case going forward then he’s a complete steal on DraftKings especially. Coming in the lower-$3K range against Peralta is a great spot for the lefty bat creeping up to around a .800 OPS. He doesn’t have huge power, but the K expectation is drastically reduced against an arm like Peralta. And Larnach is significantly better against righties for his short career.

Meanwhile, Kiriloff is another cheaper bat in a good matchup and he’s hitting around the middle of the Twins’ order as well. He has an OPS in the mid-700s, but the Twins are in such a good spot on Sunday.