DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/6/21

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Pitchers

Jacob deGrom FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11500
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - NYM
FD - 51.42 DK - 29.65

DeGrom is a -263 favorite with an over/ under of six on this slate, which represent just stupid numbers for an actual Major League baseball game. The righty is putting up historic numbers this season with 136 strikeouts through his first 85 innings, sporting a 12:1 K:BB ratio and rocking a 1.63 ERA which is only barely trailing his 0.95 ERA. These numbers are just dumb and he’s easily the best pitcher in baseball. The price, even at these levels, is still too cheap for what he’s doing on the mound. It’s a pretty easy spot to just run him in cash and not feel even remotely worried about it.

Ian Anderson FD - P 8400 DK - SP 8600
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 38.52 DK - 20.41

Anderson has been solid this season with a 3.50 xFIP on the season while striking out more than a batter per inning. You’d like the 3.15 BB rate to come down a little more though he has made some improvements in that department since last season. The big story here is that he gets to face the Pirates who are easily the worst offense in the league this season with a .286 team wOBA. They don’t strikeout a ton, but they also can’t hit at all. Anderson is a -170 road favorite in this one and is a solid DK SP2 here.

Catcher/First Base

Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 5900
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.37

With Chad Kuhl taking the mound for the Pirates, we are going to hope to get at least a couple of Braves into our DFS lineups here. Kuhl is easily the worst arm going here with some garbage peripherals and a 5.60 xFIP. Freeman is in a prime spot and continues to be one of the very best bats in the league even if the OPS isn’t telling that exact story. He walks 15% of the time, is tough to strike out and has the BABIP dragging him down some this season. If you want to play DeGrom it will be tough to fit the salary, but it’s worth it to try.

Luke Voit FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.23

First things first, Voit has had a terrible season. The OPS is atrocious and he’s really struggled. So there’s that. On the flip side, we are buying him low still and you have to like the matchup against the lefty Sheffield. For his career, he has an .845 OPS in this split and generates significantly more power against lefties. It’s going to look nice stacking the righty Yankees in this game.

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B/3B 5000
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 12.74 DK - 9.84

LeMahieu is another Yankee bat who’s struggling through this season. The OPS is sitting in the low .700s, he’s running bad on BABIP and the power continues to dip over the last couple of seasons. It’s been a struggle this time around for sure. That being said, his .842 career OPS against lefties points to this being the better side of the split and he’s very tough to put down on strikes.

Eli White FD 2200 DK 2800
Opponent - DET (José Ureña) Park - DET
FD - 10.01 DK - 7.74

Eli White has the leadoff slot for the Rangers right now and is coming very cheap on both sites. He’s not a particularly good hitter with a paltry .600 OPS though some of that has to do with early BABIP issues. His minor league numbers have him projecting to be a much better hitter. And he’s already shown some flashes of power (four home runs) and speed (three stolen bases) in his first 154 plate appearances. Urena is one of the weaker arms and I don’t mind stacking some of the cheap Rangers at the top of their order.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD - SS 3000 DK - SS 4700
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - NYM
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.72

It’s been a struggle for Lindor this season, no doubt about it. This wasn’t what the Mets imagined was going to happen when they signed him to the massive $340 million contract in the offseason. A sub.700s OPS has him almost below replacement level at the plate at this point and it’s been a tough go around. But the price is down and he’s got a good matchup against Anderson. I’m worried about the hard contact rate, but not the patience. I think we can still buy on Lindor hitting near the top of the order against the Brewers.

Dansby Swanson FD - SS 2600 DK - SS 4200
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 10.47 DK - 7.95

Swanson is on pace for the best power numbers of his career with 13 home runs already on the season. He’s basically a two-true outcome dude at this point though with a 28% K% to go with the home runs. But against Kuhl all of the Braves are in such a great spot and Swanson’s sub-$3K tag on FanDuel makes it easier to fit DeGrom.

Third Base

Yoán Moncada FD 2900 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (José Berríos) Park - MIN
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.16

This isn’t an optimal spot for Moncada, but I think on FanDuel especially we are going to be in the business of saving as much money as possible in order to ft DeGrom. The OBP is higher than the slugging which you don’t see everyday, but he is at least patient with a 16% walk rate. He’s been able to cut down on the strikeouts over the last two seasons as well. His Hr/FB rate is down this season even though the hard contact rate is in line with what he’s done before. I think there’s reason to expect the power numbers to tick back up over the course of the rest of the season.

Third base is a very weak position on Tuesday so we are going to possibly be scraping the bottom of the barrel here to just get out of the position. Take a stab at Miguel Andújar (FD $2300 DK $2700)?

Austin Riley (FD $3000 DK $4200) is a suitable option on FanDuel.

Outfield

Aaron Judge FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 14.61 DK - 10.8

Giancarlo Stanton FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 14.07 DK - 10.41

Facing off against a weaker lefty is exactly where we want to target both of these guys who could be a very popular stacking option on the main slate. Judge has been crushing the ball this season with a low-900s OPS, cutting down on his strikeout percentage and also hitting 19 home runs already. This is shaping up to be his best statistical season if he can stay healthy the rest of the way. He’s crushed lefties for his career with a .974 OPS and 160 wRC+. I suspect he’s a popular play on this slate.

Stanton meanwhile isn’t crushing as he has in the past with an .840 OPS though he does have 14 home runs so far. The big story is that he has just murdered lefty pitching for his career with a 1.004 OPS, 166 wRC+, and .416 wOBA in that split. Those numbers are just beyond elite and the DraftKings price is especially attractive.

Nate Lowe FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (José Ureña) Park - DET
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.31

If looking for a cheaper, top of the order bat then Lowe fits the bill on this slate. He should be in the second slot in the order for the Rangers and has put together solid enough numbers on the season. He has 12 home runs and .771 OPS so far. He has an excellent 12% walk rate and has been able to cut down on the strikeouts some. The Rangers have a good matchup against Urena in this one.

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